Reassessing Memphis football team’s path to the College Football Playoff after ‘painful’ loss to Navy

In college football, life moves fast.

A week ago, Memphis football was on a high after coach Ryan Silverfield pulled off a “monumental” win over Florida State. The Tigers were ranked 23rd in the US LBM Coaches Poll, had received national praise and appeared to have a good shot at a College Football Playoff berth.

Now they’re devastated. The Tigers (3-1, 0-1 American Athletic Conference) suffered what Silverfield called a “painful” 56-44 loss at Navy on Saturday. The Memphis defense, which had been so dominant in the first three games of the season, had no answer for quarterback Blake Horvath and the Navy offense.

“We knew we were going to face adversity at some point during the season, whether it was this week, next week or whenever,” quarterback Seth Henigan said. “We expected adversity. Now we just have to see how we respond to it and buckle down like I know we will.”

Of course, the season isn’t over for Memphis yet. But the path to an AAC title and a possible playoff spot has become significantly narrower after Saturday’s events in Annapolis. So what does the rest of the season look like for the Tigers?

Memphis still has a good chance of winning the AAC title

The loss to Navy means Memphis has lost control of its own destiny. While a record of 11-1 (7-1 conference) would likely be enough to make the finals, there is one scenario where that is not the case – and that starts with the Midshipmen. Navy has a relatively easy conference schedule until November, when the Midshipmen face South Florida and Tulane in back-to-back weeks.

But Navy now has the tiebreaker over Memphis, meaning a Midshipmen team will win with a loss to the Tigers.

And then there’s Army, which wasn’t exactly a favorite to win the AAC title earlier this season. But the Black Knights have an extremely easy schedule, with just one game (at home against UTSA on Nov. 30) against teams projected to finish in the top four of the conference.

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If Army stays undefeated and Navy only suffers one loss, they will win the conference title game against Memphis. At a minimum, the Tigers will likely need to win to have a chance at the AAC title game.

The CFP race is far from over

“One game cannot define our season,” Silverfield said after Saturday’s loss.

Memphis needs to win the AAC title to have a chance at the College Football Playoff. If the Tigers top the standings and win the conference with a record of 12-1, would that be enough to make the playoffs?

The answer is maybe. Once again, the Tigers lost control of their own destiny on Saturday. UNLV is undefeated and has two road wins against Big 12 teams. If the Rebels stay undefeated and win the Mountain West title, it’s all set – they’re in the playoffs.

UNLV does have to play Boise State, though, and the rest of the conference isn’t going to be a walk in the park. And there are other undefeated Group of Five teams like Liberty and James Madison that could play a role, so it’s too early to say Memphis is out with eight games left.

“We have the talent,” Henigan said. “We have the coaches. We just need to put it all together and develop a one-week-lifespan mentality.”

Reach sportswriter Jonah Dylan at [email protected] or @thejonahdylan.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Assessing the Memphis football team’s path to the CFP after the loss to Navy