The SPD is strongly deviating from the national trend

According to election researchers, the Brandenburg SPD Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke’s distancing himself from his federal party has clearly paid off. There, a strong head of government managed to “decouple from the federal trend” and thus prevent an AfD victory, according to the analysis by the research group Elections on the state election. On the +5/-5 scale, the Brandenburg SPD was able to distance itself “significantly clearly from the poor standing of the federal SPD” with a value of 1.3 at minus 0.4 percent. Overall, however, as in the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, federal politics played a major role in the election result.

Woidke enjoys a high reputation

According to the pollsters, one of the main reasons for the SPD’s good performance in Brandenburg is the popularity of the incumbent Prime Minister. He was able to gain in reputation with a value of 1.7 (2019: 1.6). For comparison: Chancellor Olaf Scholz has a reputation factor of minus 1.1. A majority (68 percent) said Woidke was doing a good job, and 60 percent would like to continue to have him as their Prime Minister. Here there is a clear distance from the AfD candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt, who is classified as right-wing extremist by the Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution: only 19 percent would like to see him in the office of Prime Minister. Even in terms of reputation (minus 1.3), he does not come anywhere close to the incumbent Woidke.

Great frustration over the traffic lights in Berlin

Among AfD, CDU and BSW voters, there is great frustration over the traffic light coalition in Berlin. 78 percent of respondents said that they see the policies of the coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP as a reason for the AfD’s strength in Brandenburg. However, people also hold the Union partly responsible for this success: 64 percent said that the AfD would not be as strong if the Union offered better policies at the federal level. The designated Union Chancellor candidate and CDU leader Friedrich Merz also has a negative image in Brandenburg, with a value of minus 0.5.

SPD scores especially well among older people

According to the analysis, the SPD is particularly popular with voters over 60. Woidke’s party is around twice as strong here, with 43 percent, as it is among those under 30, with 21 percent. The AfD received 30 percent of the votes among those under 30, while the CDU only received 9 percent, the election researchers write.

Successful topics for AfD and BSW: refugees and Russia

As in Saxony and Thuringia, voters in Brandenburg also see the AfD as competent when it comes to the issue of refugees/asylum. Here, too, the mood has shifted compared to the 2019 election: 63 percent (2019: 35 percent) are of the opinion that Brandenburg “cannot cope with the many refugees.” 62 percent doubt that the federal government’s measures will result in more refugees being turned away.

The BSW, founded by Sahra Wagenknecht, has “no particular political strengths,” it is said. However, according to the analysis, her clientele is in favor of less Western involvement in Ukraine. Compared to the other parties, BSW supporters are far more likely to believe that talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin would be particularly relevant for ending the war.

More than 30 percent approve of AfD participation in government

According to the pollsters, there are reservations about all coalition models in Brandenburg. 33 percent said they would be in favor of the AfD participating in government. But more than half would be against it (56 percent). Overall, 58 percent said they see the AfD as a threat to democracy. Brandenburgers would be more open to the idea of ​​the BSW participating in government: According to the survey, 42 percent would be in favor of this, while 30 percent would be against it.