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topicnews · September 22, 2024

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em

Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are also obvious, so in this column we’ll focus on fringe options that really need to be thought through. Good luck with your Week 3 lineups!

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr is the second-best fantasy QB, even though New Orleans has attempted the fewest passes (40) in the league through the first two weeks. Klint Kubiak’s extreme use of plays and movement is a cheat code, as the Saints scored 91 points after halftime despite barely putting in any effort. Shaheed will certainly regress after catching two touchdowns on just nine attempts, but he will also see more volume in less lopsided games going forward.

Shaheed leads the NFL in yards per route run by a wide margin and ranks seventh in average separation score for a team that uses 2-WR sets on 90% of plays, which is a league-high. The Saints also lead the NFL in fantasy points per dropback by a wide margin. The Eagles have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wideouts, so I have Shaheed in the top 20 WRs this week (and in the top 30 the rest of the season).

At the beginning of the year, I wasn’t particularly excited about the Saints, but I’m currently adjusting my expectations significantly.

DeVonta Smith (no AJ Brown) and Chris Olave (a great candidate for a cheap buy) are both top-10 wide receivers in this matchup.

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New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns

Cooper’s slow start to the season could have been much better, and he remains Cleveland’s clear WR1. The Browns are one of only five teams with a positive passing rate above expectations this year, and the Giants are posting the fifth-most YPA (8.2) through two games. Cooper has historically been much more productive at home, so keep him in the lineups this week.

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have averaged a league-high 175.0 RB rushing yards per game to start the year, but that’s helped by 93 rush attempts in the NFL. The Bears may not have enough volume, with Indianapolis (slightly) favored on Sunday and D’Andre Swift struggling. Moore is Chicago’s clear WR1, especially with Keenan Allen out and Rome Odunze playing with an MCL sprain. Chicago’s offense has been a disaster, but Moore has a favorable matchup indoors against a Colts defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Keep him in the lineups this week.

Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings

Dell easily had a 67-yard touchdown last week, and he ran routes on 66 of 77 dropbacks from CJ Stroud (some running plays required him to leave the ball). That 86% rate matches Nico Collins’ 88%; the Texans have used 11 players 79% of the time this season with the signing of Stefon Diggs. Houston will likely be more pass-happy with Joe Mixon out with an ankle injury, while hip/foot issues limited Collins in practice until he completed a full session on Friday. The Vikings have a strong run defense and an underrated offense, so Dell’s targets should increase on Sunday.

Jalen Nailor is a clear fantasy favorite with Jordan Addison out with an ankle injury and Justin Jefferson out with a bang (but he was not included on the final injury report).

Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

A battered Justin Herbert, who seems to be a real game time callcould lead to a favorable run of play for Pittsburgh, and Harris remains the team’s clear leader. Still, his snap rate dropped to 48% last week, while a healthier Jaylen Warren hit 45%. Harris ran just six routes (Warren ran 10 in a game without many passes) and remains in danger of losing rushing points to Justin Fields. The Chargers have given up just 73.5 RB rushing yards per game without a TD, posting the lowest EPA/rush in the league. The Steelers have just an 18.75 implied point total in a matchup that will be slow, so Harris deserves bench consideration this week.

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

White is admittedly a bit of a risk as he enters with a groin injury, but he had a full practice on Friday and was able to finish last week’s game despite the injury. He will continue to lose running work to rookie Bucky Irving, but White still has 32 of 50 RB touches in Tampa Bay’s backfield. The Buccaneers’ passing attack has looked great, and White is a good pass receiver who will continue to see targets. Tampa Bay is a 6-point favorite against a Broncos team with an inferior QB and a defense that allows the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs.

Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans

Pollard gained more yards after contact (71) in Week 1 than in any other game of 2023, and he’s looking more explosive the longer it’s been since his TightRope surgery. Tyjae Spears was busy last week but had to exit the game with an ankle injury. According to a report, he is expected to playbut it is unlikely that he will be 100% fit. The Titans have an impressive defense and may be underrated, having blocked two punts in the first two weeks (and some quarterback errors). The game could go in their favor on Sunday against Malik Willis, as Jordan Love could reportedly return next weekThe Packers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs, so treat Pollard as a top-15 RB this week.

Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders

White’s snap share went up from 39% in the season opener to 65% last week, even working in the passing game. The Raiders have been surprisingly pass-heavy and have struggled to run the ball this season, but this is a favorable matchup for White. The game will be more competitive with Andy Dalton filling in for Bryce Young, but the Raiders enter the home game with a 5.5-point lead. Carolina has allowed the second-most RB rushing yards per game (166.5) and fantasy points to running backs this season. Quantity has played a role, but the Panthers have also given up 4.9 YPC and the fourth-most EPA/rush.

Brock Bowers has already completed this column and should be considered one of the three best fantasy tight ends in the future.

Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks

Charbonnet isn’t as good as Kenneth Walker III, but he played 95% of the snaps and all 19 RB opportunities last week, a league-high. Walker’s game on Sunday is questionable, so Charbonnet will get another chance to be the star back in an exciting new Seattle offense in a cheap home game. The Dolphins have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs in two weeks, and the game should go in a positive direction with Skylar Thompson taking over as Miami’s QB.

Jaylen Waddle in total 101 scoreless yards in three Thompson starts in 2022, and his over/under for receiving yards on Sunday is 41.5. Waddle is still a top-35 WR this week, but he’s a candidate for the bench if you have alternatives.

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

Williams ranks in the top five in first-read targets and expected fantasy points per game. Amon-Ra St. Brown appears to be in good shape but is recovering from a quad injury that prevented him from finishing last week’s game. Jared Goff has struggled, but Detroit will fare much worse in the red zone. Goff easily leads all quarterbacks with 13 red zone attempts so far. The Lions once again have the highest implied team point total (27.25 points) in a fast-paced matchup against an Arizona defense that allows the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys

Elliott and Rico Dowdle have the same number of snaps and opportunities through the first two weeks. The 29-year-old Elliott is managing just 3.5 YPC for the second straight season, and he’s facing a Ravens defense that’s allowing NFL lows in YPC (2.7) and RB rushing yards per game (37.0). Set your sights higher than an aging back who has evaded just one tackle this year facing a stout Baltimore run defense.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are depleted on the offensive line and are without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Los Angeles has one of the league’s lower implied team point totals against the 49ers (18.75 points), so Stafford belongs on the fantasy bench this week.

Demarcus Robinson and Jordan Whittington are considered safe favorites as the Rams continued to rely heavily on the 11-person team despite the WR injuries last week.

Brandon Aiyuk is one of the top five WRs this week with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel Sr. out.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons

Pitts’ route share dropped from 96% in Week 1 to 73% last week, and he has a modest 11% air yardage share after two games. In hindsight, drafting Pitts over Brock Bowers was clearly a mistake, but Pitts should stay in fantasy lineups this week. He could have a lot more to do against a Kansas City defense that allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs and will likely focus on shutting down Drake London. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have allowed by far the most fantasy points to tight ends this year.

Pitts is moving better this season, and Kirk Cousins ​​allayed concerns that he hasn’t recovered with his improved performance in Week 2. Tight end performance has dropped dramatically across the league — in addition to numerous injuries at the position — and all seven touchdowns of Pitts’ career have come at home, so he’s still a top-seven option this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills

Lawrence ranks 31st out of 33 quarterbacks in completion percentage above expectations and has by far the lowest sack rate of his career (29.2%). Lawrence has lost seven straight starts, which is an NFL high, and he will again miss Evan Engram. Buffalo has given up the third-most fantasy points to running backs but the 11th fewest to quarterbacks, so Lawrence will be on the bench this week.

Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals

Moss’ contribution to Cincinnati’s backfield grew even more last week, when he played 82% of the snaps (third-highest in the league) and had 13 of 17 RB opportunities. The game script should be favorable on Monday night, as the Bengals are 7.5-point favorites. Cincinnati has the highest implied team total this week (27.25 points) after dealing with some tough defenses earlier in the year. Moss was productive last season when he got 15+ rushes, and he’s lined up for good volume on Monday night.

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