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topicnews · September 22, 2024

US poll of polls: Harris gains slight lead while Trump suffers setbacks after debate

US poll of polls: Harris gains slight lead while Trump suffers setbacks after debate

With just 45 days left until the 2024 US presidential election, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains razor-thin. Although Harris is gaining momentum in the polls, especially after the candidates’ ABC debate earlier this month, the outcome is still far from certain.

A voter works on his ballot at a polling station at the Elena Bozeman Government Center in Arlington, Virginia, on September 20, 2024. Early in-person voting for the 2024 U.S. presidential election began in Virginia, South Dakota and Minnesota. (Photo by AFP)(AFP)

According to a 10-day Guardian polling average published on September 21, Harris is now 2.6 percentage points ahead of Trump, 48.5 percent to 45.9 percent. This is an improvement on her 0.9 percentage point lead last week and represents a significant shift from the narrow tie in early September. The shift follows the highly anticipated September 10 debate in Philadelphia, where Harris was widely seen as the winner. Trump, the Republican nominee and former president, has been criticized for focusing on crowd size and repeating discredited claims about immigration, which many believe is damaging his standing.

According to the Guardian's average of 10-day polls, Kamala Harris is narrowly ahead of Donald Trump
According to the Guardian’s average of 10-day polls, Kamala Harris is narrowly ahead of Donald Trump

Kamala vs. Trump: Current Race Trends

A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll conducted immediately after the debate showed the two candidates neck and neck at 47 percent, a slight improvement for Harris from the one percent lead Trump held before the debate.

Other polls, however, have been more encouraging for Harris. A Morning Consult survey of over 11,000 respondents has her leading by six percentage points, 51% to 45%, her largest lead since she took over the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden nearly two months ago.

The poll is supported by a separate Quinnipiac poll and shows Harris leading by six percentage points in Pennsylvania, 51% to 45%.

In addition, according to the Quinnipiac poll, Harris is ahead in two neighboring contested districts, Michigan and Wisconsin, by 5% and 1%, respectively.

While Harris’s 2.6 percentage point national lead is still within the margin of error, the latest numbers show growing optimism for her campaign. But with just over six weeks left until Election Day, both candidates will have to fight for every vote, especially in the key swing states that could ultimately decide the election.

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