Where to watch the WNBA playoffs: Preview, forecast, schedule and TV for Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury

The Minnesota Lynx were the biggest surprise this season, using a strong start and an incredible post-Olympic surge to reach the 30-win mark for the first time in franchise history and secure the second playoff spot. For the Phoenix Mercury, their big offseason additions did not lead to the success they had hoped for, and a late-season drop in performance dropped them below .500 and finished in 7th place.

This is the seventh playoff matchup between the old rivals, with five of the previous matchups going in the Lynx’s favor. Can they make it six or will the Mercury pull off a major upset? Ahead of Game 1 on Sunday, here’s what you need to know:

No. 2 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 7 Phoenix Mercury

• Game 1: Mercury at Lynx, Sunday, 5:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
• Game 2: Mercury at Lynx, September 25, 9:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
• Game 3*: Lynx at Mercury, Sept. 27, to be announced – ESPN2

*If required

Players in focus

Lynx: Napheesa Collier

Collier has had an MVP-worthy season, her only problem being that A’ja Wilson had the best individual season ever at the same time. Even though Collier won’t win the league’s most prestigious award this season, she hopes she can lead the Lynx to a record-breaking fifth championship. The Lynx are more of a collective than other contenders, and Collier is the superstar who makes everything work.

Mercury: Kahleah Copper

Copper was the Mercury’s star signing in the offseason and they spent a lot of money to get her from the Chicago Sky. Copper was great at first and worth the money. However, after the Olympic break, her performance dropped off and she missed a few games due to a back injury. If the Mercury want to pull off an upset, they need the pre-Olympic version of Copper (23.2 points per game on 56.1% TS), not the post-Olympic version (16.8 points per game on 49.9% TS).

Three keys to the series

Two different defenses

The Lynx have been able to be so consistently successful this season because their defense never took a night off. What they lacked in size in the frontcourt, they made up for in versatility and connectivity. They finished second in the league in defensive rating (94.8), first in opponent eFG% (46.0), second in opponent free throw percentage (.230) and fourth in opponent turnover rate (19.7).

The same cannot be said for the Mercury, who have looked disinterested on that side of the ball at times. Among playoff teams, only the Indiana Fever had a worse defensive rating than the Mercury (105.4). Two of the biggest problems were their inability to get pressured on offense and force turnovers. They allowed an offensive rebounding rate of 32.6%, which was the worst in the league, and their turnover rate was 16.3, which was 11th.

While the Lynx aren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse, they know exactly what they want to do out there. If the Mercury don’t find a way to establish themselves on that side of the ball, the Lynx will tear them apart.

Can Griner dominate on the inside?

Brittney Griner’s season went largely unnoticed amid the Mercury’s post-Olympics slump and some other stories, but it was great. She finished the season ranked 11th in the league, scoring 17.8 points per game and leading the league in field goal percentage with a career-high 57.9.

Thanks to the Mercury’s new approach under new head coach Nate Tibbetts, which emphasizes spacing and three-point shooting, it was much harder for teams to double-team Griner on the block, and she took advantage of her most efficient season ever.

This should be a series for Griner, and the Mercury will demand that she perform at that level, if not higher. The Lynx don’t have anyone taller than 6’4″ in their starting lineup, and Griner will have a big size advantage on the block. However, in three regular-season games with the Lynx, she scored just 31 points on 10-of-33 shooting from the field. If she plays like that, the Mercury won’t stand a chance.

One last playoff run for Taurasi?

Diana Taurasi is one of the best players in WNBA history and may be on the verge of making the final playoff run of her illustrious career. Although she hasn’t made a decision – at least not publicly – about her basketball future, the Mercury hosted a farewell party of sorts for the 42-year-old guard at their final home game of the regular season.

Because of the league’s 2-1 format in this best-of-three first-round series, the Mercury are not guaranteed a home game. They would need to win either of the first two games to force a decisive third game in Phoenix, and few expect them to do so.

If Taurasi has made it, then it has been a spectacular journey. In her two decades in the league, she won Rookie of the Year, MVP, two Finals MVPs, three titles, was an 11-time All-Star, 14-time All-WNBA selection, and scored more points than any other player in league history (10,646).

Does she have one last run left in her?

forecast

The Lynx have stepped it up after the Olympic break, while the Mercury have struggled to finish. The Lynx are a cohesive unit and have excellent defense, while the Mercury are often out of form and have no one to defend. It’s hard to imagine the Mercury winning a game here. Selection: Lynx in 2