La Liga tips: Mbappe and Real Madrid will overwhelm Las Palmas

Mbappe is close to breaking through in La Liga

Ahead of the first midweek round of the 2024-25 La Liga season, Jamie Kemp previews Real Madrid’s trip to the Canary Islands and two other Matchday 3 encounters…

Atletico Madrid’s season has officially started, and after flexing their muscles in a 3-0 win over Girona on Sunday night and using all of their new top signings, the appetite for the 2024/25 campaign at the Metropolitano is high and keen.

Atletico failed to create many good chances and were ruthless in their win against Girona, a team that finished ahead of them in La Liga last season. In many ways, that was the likely blueprint for their title challenge this season. Limit chances defensively and be the dominant force in both penalty areas, if not always the best in between. The new signings will all help with that goal.

If there’s one thing we know for sure about Diego Simeone’s side, it’s that they’re very good on their own pitch. Atletico have won 26 of their last 29 home games (D1 L2), and their victory on Sunday night against a decent opponent will likely kickstart many more in the 2024/25 season. With their collective strength and the atmosphere at the Metropolitano – which was exceptional last time out – away teams have everything they need this season.

Atletico Madrid have won each of their last eight home games against promoted teams in La Liga, taking 55 of the last 57 possible points in such games. In addition, no promoted team has ever managed to play against them in La Liga and concede a goal in the process during the Diego Simeone era (37 games).

Atletico’s dominance on home soil should continue against Espanyol – the only team yet to score in La Liga this season – and after doing so against Girona at the weekend, I expect Simeone’s side to win both halves in this game.

Real Sociedad picked up their first win of the 2024/25 season last time out, but in terms of performance, it hasn’t been a particularly inspiring start to the season. They will hope that their narrow 1-0 away win at newly promoted Espanyol, which gave them their first win, will ease the situation and soon make way for the football they are capable of.

Based on expected goals (xG), Real Sociedad have the fourth-worst goal differential in the first two rounds of the new season. They have created 1.77 xG and conceded 2.9, while having to save more shots (25) than they have attempted (19), despite their relatively easy start to the season given the strength of their opponents.

While they are struggling to score goals, the other major concern currently facing Imanol Alguacil is the health of his defenders. Following the expensive sale of Robin Le Normand to Atletico Madrid in the summer, the club are currently working on signing Mats Hummels as an impressive replacement. In the meantime, however, Igor Zubeldia, Jon Pacheco and Aritz Elustondo – three of their current centre-backs – are all struggling with injuries of some sort.

There is a chance that Real Sociedad will have to reshuffle their deck for Wednesday night’s game and start some players in the wrong position in central defence. I think the combination of their difficulties in front of goal and the likelihood of them having to protect a potentially improvised defence could mean that this is a low-scoring affair.

Only one of La Real’s last nine La Liga games has seen more than 2.5 goals scored, while Alaves have not scored more than one goal in any of their last eight away games in the competition. In a game between two teams that have been slow to get going this season, and taking into account the home team’s injury problems, I’m picking a low-goal draw at the Reale Arena.

Las Palmas vs Real Madrid – Thu, 20:30

Las Palmas would have been happy with their performance in the season opener against Sevilla (2-2 draw), but their defeat to newly promoted Leganes last time out puts new head coach Luis Carrion under some pressure. They would have liked to have achieved something on matchday 2, knowing that a duel with Real Madrid awaits them and their new project next.

It will be a few weeks before it is clear what Carrions Las Palmas might be capable of this season, but we can be fairly certain that they will be an entertaining side to watch in 2024/25 – for better or for worse. As they transition from a team with a lot of possession and a lack of presence in the box to one that has less possession and wants to attack with more tempo, a theme of their games is likely to be chances on both sides.

In the first two games of the new season, Las Palmas have had a total of 52 shots on goal (25 for, 27 against), only Girona and Sevilla (both 56) have had more. In fact, the combined xG of 5.6 in their two games so far (2.3 for, 3.3 against) is also the third highest figure in the first two matchdays.

Of course, against a Real Madrid team that boasts the attacking strengths of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo, an exchange of chances in this game could mean trouble.

The reigning champions have been far from stellar in their first two league games of the ‘Mbappe era’, but they will surely get things sorted at some point in the next few weeks. The star power at the top of the pitch is just too strong and even with a fairly poor performance against Real Valladolid in their last game, the 3-0 final scoreline says a lot about their ability to score goals when they are not necessarily playing well.

Kylian Mbappe has had the most shots on goal of any player in the first two rounds (5), despite failing to score in either match. He is close to scoring and I expect him to help Real Madrid edge out Las Palmas by a comfortable margin here.