Tropical Storm Hone hits Hawaii, Gilma is already in the starting blocks

Two named tropical cyclones will pass within a few hundred miles of Hawaii within a week before the end of August, something that has only happened once in recent decades.

Two named tropical cyclones are expected to hit Hawaii in the next few days. One of them will pass just south of the Big Island late this weekend and another could are approaching the String of Pearls before the end of August. AccuWeather meteorologists expect both to impact the islands.

Hone was named last Thursday as a swirling line of showers and thunderstorms became better organized. Gusty winds, torrential rain and rough seas are expected to persist over parts of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday as Hone moves south.

As of Sunday night local time, peak wind gusts of 72 mph (at Kohala Ranch) and rainfall totals of 27.5 inches (Hakalau) have been observed on Hawaii’s Big Island. According to Poweroutage.us, more than 17,000 customers were also without power.

Hone became more organized over the past weekend and wind intensity increased, reaching hurricane strength at 5 a.m. Eastern Time on Sunday morning. However, by Monday morning, Hone lost wind intensity and regained tropical storm status.

As Hone continues its westward path, wind gusts of 40-60 mph are expected to continue, primarily over the western portions of the islands. Winds of this strength can down trees and cause power outages.

Winds can also increase the risk of fire on the islands, especially on the western and southern, rain-sheltered slopes of mountains and hills. A similar situation occurred last August as Hurricane Dora moved south. Gusty winds, drought and dry air sparked a deadly and destructive wildfire that became Hawaii’s worst natural disaster.

Heavy rain will continue in parts of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday.

As Hone moves farther away from Hawaii on Monday, a total of 1 to 2 inches (2.5 to 5 centimeters) of additional rain could fall, especially on the windward side of the islands.

Such amounts of rain can cause flash floods and mudslides, particularly, but not exclusively, on the windward sides of hills and mountains, generally on the north and east sides as the storm approaches.

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As the storm moves further southwest of each island, variable winds will bring locally heavy rain to other southern slopes on Monday.

Although Hone is not expected to make a direct impact on Hawaii, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ scale for hurricanes on the islands is below one.

The RealImpact™ scale takes more factors into account than the Saffir-Simpson wind scale for hurricanes. The Saffir-Simpson scale only measures the wind intensity at the center of the storm and does not take into account the size, speed, and other impacts that even a near-passage of a storm could have.

Wind, swells and rain may increase just days after Hone, depending on how much cold water off Gilma weakens the hurricane. Gilma initially intensified to a Category 3 major hurricane in the middle of last week and strengthened again to a Category 4 major hurricane early Sunday morning before weakening some of its wind intensity later in the day.

As Gilma continues to move westward and slowly approach Hawaii, the hurricane’s track has changed and may continue to do so throughout the week.

The core of Gilma is forecast to pass just north and east of the islands, with impacts ranging from showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds to intensifying effects on the Big Island, expected to begin late Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Gilma is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Hawaii, and it is possible that it could weaken to a tropical depression or storm with wind and rain by the second half of the week.

The combination of both tropical cyclones is expected to bring rough seas and surf to the islands for an extended period, posing a danger to surfers, swimmers and small boats.

Tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes passing near Hawaii are rare but not unknown.

August is typically the month with the most tropical threats for Hawaii. Since official weather records began in 1949, the islands have been hit by 30 tropical cyclones. This month accounts for more than 40% of the approximately 70 tropical cyclones that impact the islands during the year.

Iniki was the strongest hurricane ever to directly impact the state. Iniki struck in 1992 as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The only other hurricane to directly impact the islands was Dot in 1959 as a Category 1 hurricane.

Since 1992, no two named storms have passed within 300 miles of the main Hawaiian islands within a week. In an extremely rare event in September 1992, Iniki was followed three days later by a direct impact from Orlene as a tropical depression. In 1994, two systems passed south of the islands within eight days.

Tropical storms and hurricanes do not have to hit Hawaii directly to cause significant hazards and damage, as demonstrated by Dora last August and Hurricane Lane in 2018.

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