Weekend Preview: There can only be TRANSFORMERS ONE

The box office podium

Forecast of the top 3 films at the domestic box office | September 20 – 22, 2024

Week 38 | 20 – 22 September 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 38, 2024: $65M – $95M

1. Transformers One
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Weekend range: $25-35 million
Showtime market share: 25%

Per

• Since its launch four presidents ago (2007), Paramount’s Transformers franchise has brought in an impressive $5.28 billion in ticket sales worldwide. That’s not even a drop in the bucket when you consider merchandise sales (it was at least $7 billion a decade ago), as well as revenue from home video, animated series, and Universal Studios’ Transformers 3D ride. With ticket sales for the main film series having plummeted over the past decade, the studio is sprinkling a little Pixar magic into the kit by hiring Toy Story 4 Director Josh Cooley takes over the direction Transformers Onethe first fully animated Transformers movie since the 1986 2D film Transformers: The Movie. A prequel that focuses on the early days of Optimus Prime (Chris Hemsworth) and Megatron (Brian Tyree Henry) before their transformation. The animation is by leading visual effects company Industrial Light and Magic, which previously created the Oscar-winning Rango. Unlike the often brutal smash-’em-ups directed by master of mayhem Michael Bay, this film is much more kid-friendly, which likely pleases production partner Hasbro, who want to establish the film as a gateway drug for younger viewers/toy buyers into the brand.

• Although they are more colorful and toy-like than the live-action films, Transformers One has another ace up its sleeve: celebrities. Since it is a prequel set long before the events of the previous films, longtime Optimus Prime voice actor Peter Cullen has been replaced by MCU star Chris Hemsworth, a far bigger coup for the promo scene. Other big names lending their voices to the inhabitants of Cybertron include Brian Tyree Henry, Scarlett Johansson, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne and Jon Hamm. Should the animated films move forward (Transformers Two, Transformers Threeetc.) all of these talents will be a huge asset. The reviews for the film are also pretty glowing, especially for this franchise. The current Rotten Tomatoes forecast is 90%, on par with bumblebee for the highest critics’ score ever for a Transformers film. Other live-action entries have all scored rotten, between 57% and 16%. Therefore, our panel predicts a low opening in the $30 million range, though not at the low point of bumblebeeIt was $21.6 million in 2018.

Disadvantages

There is no doubt that Transformers is a franchise that is on the decline at the box office. Domestically, the series reached its peak 15 years ago with The Revenge of the Fallen -the second film, which was panned by critics- while Age of extinction ($1,104 billion) was the last to cross the billion dollar mark globally over a decade ago. Here’s an opening/domestic performance chart for comparison…

• Transformers – Revenge of the Fallen (2009) – $108.9 million opening revenue/$402.1 million total revenue
• Transformers: Age of Extinction (2014) – $100 million opening result/$245.4 million total result
• Transformers – Dark of the Moon (2011) – $97.8 million opening revenue/$352.3 million total revenue
• Transformers (2007) – $70.5 million opening revenue/$319.2 million total revenue
• Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (2023) – $61 million opening/$157.3 million total
• Transformers: The Last Knight (2017) – $44.6 million opening/$130.1 million total
• bumblebee (2018) – $21.6 million opening/$127.1 million total

The latest live-action entry, last year’s Rise of the BeastsAlthough it outperformed its two predecessors domestically, it had the lowest box office of all worldwide (439.2 million US dollars). Transformers One is a clear attempt to make the franchise more geared towards its target audience, kids who play with toys, although the franchise was more geared towards kids last time with the spin-off bumblebee it had the lowest domestic box office of all seven films. If Transformers can succeed as an animated franchise, that’s good news for Paramount, because those tough robots beating each other to near-senselessness have lost much of their appeal for audiences. It’s clear that the studio isn’t thrilled with Dreamworks’ animated film The wild robot comes to theaters a week later and has even better reviews (Rotten Tomatoes currently gives the film 100%).

2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Warner Bros. | Week 3
Weekend range: $25-30 million
Showtime market share: 17%

Per

• Tim Burton’s Gothic-friendly sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is currently at $195.4 million domestically, meaning the film will cross the $200 million mark in a few days. It also has the potential to Transformers One if that film doesn’t do well. Expect worldwide receipts to top $300 million this weekend as well, with the whole thing probably nicely profitable for Warner Bros. Pictures right now. It’s also a welcome return to form for the Warners/Burton duo, as the quirky director made 8 of his 20 features for the studio but hasn’t worked there since. Dark shadows in 2012. Hopefully this will lead to many more fruitful collaborations in the coming years.

Disadvantages

• We’re looking at another halving of the previous frame’s gross in this third go-round, as the nostalgia factor for the Beetlejuice brand slowly wears off. It’s also hard to ignore how weak the foreign gross ($76.5 million) is compared to the domestic take, even though the film is staying well within its budget at this point, which is reportedly around $100 million. Perhaps the humor of the script just doesn’t resonate overseas? It’s especially puzzling that the film isn’t doing better in Italy, where the box office is picking up again this year. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice grossed only $3.5 million at the Italian box office, despite Monica Bellucci playing a leading role and part of the film even being spoken in Italian.

3. Never let go
Lionsgate | NEW
Weekend range: $4-8 million
Showtime market share: 8%

Per

• Oscar winner Halle Berry stars in this survival horror film by French director Alexandre Aja (Creep), which is about a mother and her two young twin sons who are terrorized by an evil in the forest. Despite a series of failures in the action sector, Lionsgate has done well with its two horror films this year, with The Strangers: Chapter 1 at $35.2 million and Imaginary for $28 million. Reviews so far have been decent, 72% on Rotten Tomatoes, and as if being able to release reviews early wasn’t enough of a vote of confidence, the film is set to premiere at Fantastic Fest tomorrow. Never let go could do better than average if the festival’s word of mouth is enough to attract fans of the genre, but it could just as easily become another horror casualty of 2024.

Disadvantages

• The Lionsgate factor cannot be overestimated, as the studio has struggled with its slate over the past month (Borderland, The Crow, The murderer’s game). Halle Berry herself is a mixed bag when it comes to the prospects for success. Her strongest performances tend to be in films where she plays supporting roles (Kingsman, John Wick, X-Men, etc.). Her leading roles lately have tended to be in box office flops (Moonfall, Kings) or Netflix streaming entries (The Union, Squeezed). Her last solo film that did well enough was the 2017 indie thriller Kidnap ($30.7 million). While the trailers make this look like a strong performance from Berry, the overall isolated, supernatural forest setting is perhaps a little too reminiscent of recent flops. The Guardians ($19 million domestic).