Mandel’s Mailbag: How will Tennessee-Oklahoma change perception of Vols, Sooners?

Shortly after the stunning news broke in 2021 that the SEC was in talks to add two schools, I wrote a column urging Oklahoma to break free of Texas and join another conference where it could dominate like it did the Big 12. It included this passage:

Perhaps we’re selling you short, Oklahoma, but unless (Nick) Saban retires before you can negotiate your Big 12 exit fee, it seems highly unlikely you’ll continue at your accustomed rate of success.

Saban did retire. No. 1 Texas seems right at home in the SEC. As for Oklahoma …

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

How much hype will you think is warranted for Tennessee if it has a solid, cover-the-spread win over Oklahoma? Would that push the perception of the Vols to top-three SEC status? — Evan J.

Oklahoma is a touchdown underdog at home, and it’s ranked as a middle-of-the-pack SEC team. Is this the new reality, or could a win on Saturday night significantly change perceptions? — Mike S., Bray, Okla.

The Sooners have not been a touchdown home underdog since Nov. 21, 1998, the last game Oklahoma played before hiring Bob Stoops that offseason. For what it’s worth, John Blake’s 4-6 Sooners won outright that day, 20-17 over 7-3 Texas Tech.

This game could swing the perceptions of both teams. Tennessee is not getting the attention it deserves given how dominant it has been in all areas. The Vols beat NC State 51-10 on a neutral field and are somehow ranked one spot behind Missouri, which beat comparable ACC foe Boston College 27-21 at home. Then they went up 65-0 at halftime last week against poor Kent State. It’s early, but Tennessee currently has the No. 2 defense in the country, one spot below Ohio State, and the No. 6 offense, one spot above the Buckeyes.

But I fully acknowledge that Tennessee has not won a big SEC road game since … ? I had to go back to 2006 to find a top-15 conference road win: 51-33 at No. 10 Georgia. (Fun fact about that game: True freshman quarterback Matthew Stafford came in on the final series.) I don’t blame anyone who wants to wait and see the Vols “prove it” this week before buying in fully.

But if they win decisively, we might need to start considering whether Tennessee belongs in the conversation with Texas/Georgia/Alabama.

Brent Venables’ Oklahoma Sooners are 3-0 entering their game Saturday against Tennessee. (Nathan J. Fish / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)

Oklahoma is 3-0 but not of the confidence-building variety. It somehow won just 16-12 over a rebuilding Houston team. Last weekend, it needed four quarters to put away Tulane. The good news is it appears third-year coach Brent Venables has assembled the kind of havoc-wreaking defense he was known for at Clemson, with 11 sacks in three games. The bad news is touted sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game and had a pick six last weekend.

As high as I am on Tennessee, I find it hard to imagine the Sooners getting blown out in a prime-time home game on a day that their fans have been waiting for since the SEC news broke three years ago.

If, however, OU does get blown out by its former star quarterback and assistant, Josh Heupel, whom Stoops later fired and replaced with Lincoln Riley, it’s not going to be a fun rest of the season for Venables.

How do schools approach hiring a coach in the 12-team College Football Playoff era? Can a school truly wait for a coach who is competing in the Playoff? — Tom M., Oxford, United Kingdom

This is a fascinating subplot to the new Playoff. In the past, four coaches in the country were off-limits, but now there might be 12. And given the hot coaches are usually the ones taking their teams to the Playoff, does this mean schools that want to get a head start on the next season have to settle for coaches whose teams were good but not great that season?

A lot of people think Florida will target Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin to replace Billy Napier. But, of course, the Rebels have a shot at making the CFP. The portal is open from Dec. 9, the day after Selection Sunday, through Jan. 7, two days before the semifinals. Do schools wait and see if Kiffin wins the first game, and if so, pivot to someone else who can start before Jan. 1, or is waiting until the last week of portal season fine? But then, what if Ole Miss advances to the semis? Now we’re pushing up against the start of the second semester at most schools. Is that too late?

Meanwhile, it’s not like the coaching carousel grinds to a halt elsewhere. Let’s say Florida’s Plan B is South Florida’s Alex Golesh, whose team does not make the Playoff. But Arkansas fires Sam Pittman, and it wants Golesh. Are schools willing to miss out on Plan B while waiting around on Plan A, who is not a sure thing?

My guess is Florida in that scenario would panic and pivot to Golesh. But I find that unnecessary. Alabama did not hire Kalen DeBoer until Jan. 12 and does not seem to be suffering. Washington, which was going to have massive turnover regardless, did not land Jedd Fisch until two days after that, and yet he was able to hang on to committed transfer quarterback Will Rogers and land nine other starting-caliber transfers on top of that.

Most athletic directors only get one chance to hire the right coach, and that decision impacts the program for years. Hiring the wrong coach is going to be far more harmful than spending a month in limbo.

What would be your plan to return Florida State to the Bobby Bowden glory days? — Patrick M.

I realize these first three games of FSU’s season have been a debacle, but I feel like collective amnesia has swept over everybody. I’ve had numerous people ask me whether Mike Norvell is going to get fired.

The Seminoles won 13 games last season. Only a fluke and unfortunate injury prevented them from reaching the Playoff. And the Noles finished in the top 10 in the coaches poll the year before that. I realize that doesn’t qualify as the Bowden glory days, but it’s pretty good.

Something went awry, so my first move would be to investigate what went wrong. Is there a problem in the player personnel department? Were there bad evaluations? What about the money side? Bruce Feldman reported that FSU’s collective spent $12 million on this roster. Did FSU misallocate it? What about Norvell and his staff? Are certain coaches not pulling their weight? And what about the locker-room culture? FSU lost a ton of leadership from the past two seasons. Was no one prepared for it?

All of these things are fixable. Norvell had a lot of success with the portal previously, and he can do so again. He just has to make sure he doesn’t repeat the mistakes of this past cycle. In particular, why did he settle on DJ Uiagalelei as his quarterback given his track record? I would think there were players in the Group of 5 pool who would have not only performed better but commanded fewer dollars.

Conference affiliation is more vexing, mostly because it’s not something the school controls. But FSU’s dynasty began in part due to Bowden’s shrewd decision in 1990 to go to the ACC instead of the SEC. Being the biggest fish in a small pond rather than one of many similar-sized fish has served that program well, and now it should, in theory, give FSU an easier path to the CFP. Sure, it would be nice to have an extra $30 million per year, but what’s the point of being rich if you’re finishing eighth in the SEC?

Michigan went from preseason +10.5 vs. USC to now being a 5.5-point underdog. Do you recall a swing this drastic in recent memory or a game when Michigan was nearly a touchdown underdog at home? How do YOU assess this game? — Raj M.

Life comes at you pretty fast in college football. Less than three weeks ago, I would have picked Michigan to cruise in this game and for USC to be 1-2 coming out of it. Now, I have a hard time figuring out how the Wolverines can win, which, if they don’t, will drop the defending national champs to 2-2.

Teams can get much better as the season goes along, so I don’t assume the Michigan we saw against Texas is the Michigan we’ll see all season. But Sherrone Moore has a lot riding on new starting quarterback Alex Orji. He’s a different athlete than Davis Warren and should make the offense more dynamic with his running ability. We have no idea what kind of passer he’ll be, but, given Warren’s 110.97 passer rating does not crack the top 100 nationally, I can’t imagine Orji will be less effective.

For USC, my two biggest concerns would be 1) The thus-far unflappable Miller Moss is making his true first career road start; and 2) USC’s offensive line was considered to be its biggest question coming into the season, and Michigan’s defensive front, could be a much tougher challenge for the Trojans than LSU’s was.

But even the best defenses don’t generally hold Riley offenses to 17 points. Michigan is going to have to score some touchdowns, and the 2024 USC defense seems more capable than the previous two. USC should win, but it won’t be a cakewalk.

We have a surprising Top 25 matchup this weekend between Illinois and Nebraska. Who do you think will win? — Rob W., Columbia, S.C.

I have an embarrassing confession to make. I had no idea either of these teams was ranked until I saw this question.

I’ve got the Huskers winning this one, and I’ve got them getting to 6-0 before their Oct. 19 trip to 6-0 Indiana. Let’s start the campaign now to get “College GameDay” to Bloomington for that one. Never mind that Georgia-Texas and Alabama-Tennessee are on the same day.

What are your biggest surprises in the Big 12 so far? — Mike S.

Definitely Arizona State, which was picked to finish 16th out of 16 in the Big 12. Texas State is a very good G5 team, capable of winning the Sun Belt. ASU went there on a short week on Thursday, and after falling behind 21-7 in the second quarter, it allowed seven points the rest of the way for a 31-28 win. Cam Skattebo is the conference’s second-leading rusher, and the defense, which forced three turnovers and a fourth-down stop in the fourth quarter of that game, seems much-improved.

I don’t think Kenny Dillingham’s team can contend for the conference title, but it could reach a bowl game, no small accomplishment after going 3-9 the last two seasons.

Kansas, which lost to Illinois and UNLV the last two weeks, has been a disappointment. Perhaps quarterback Jalon Daniels is not the same player he was before his injury struggles the past two seasons, or perhaps Lance Leipold badly misses former offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who was by his side for the previous 11 seasons at three different stops (Wisconsin-Whitewater, Buffalo and Kansas) or both.

And Arizona has been a mixed bag. Star receiver Tetairoa McMillan had an unbelievable 304-yard night in the season opener against New Mexico, but quarterback Noah Fifita’s efficiency is down, and the defense has struggled. The Wildcats started the season ranked for the first time in nine years, but I don’t see them ending there.

This week’s Utah-Oklahoma State game figures to tell us a lot about the conference race. Utah, the preseason favorite, has not been tested, and quarterback Cam Rising is expected back after missing a game. And I’m puzzled how Cowboys star Ollie Gordon, last year’s Doak Walker winner, is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, although I doubt he’ll stay down for long.

Was Kansas losing by only one score to Illinois and UNLV enough for Leipold to jump Kirby Smart in your coaches ranking? — Reggie C., San Diego

Ouch, man. The fact people are now surprised when Kansas loses a football game is arguably Leipold’s greatest testimonial yet.

Is everyone overlooking Cal as a contender in the ACC? — Marty, San Francisco

Yes, although that’s understandable. Cal hasn’t been nationally relevant since the Aughts and played late at night last week. As strange as it sounds, Cal may get more exposure from beating Florida State, which has become trainwreck TV.

But I’ve noticed, and I’ve been impressed with Justin Wilcox’s team. He and coordinator Peter Sirmon have assembled quite a defense, which is allowing an average of 12.3 points and has a national-best nine interceptions in three games. Inside linebacker Cade Uluave, the Pac-12’s best freshman defensive player last season, is now joined by UC-Davis transfer Teddye Buchanan, who is seemingly in on every play (31 tackles, 2.5 sacks). And safety Nohl Williams already has four picks.

Meanwhile, Cal was without star running back Jaydn Ott for last week’s 31-10 rout of San Diego State and still rushed for 275 yards. The Bears go three-deep at tailback now with Ott, sophomore Jaivian Thomas (17 carries for 169 yards last week) and Old Dominion transfer Kadarius Calloway (nine carries for 87 yards).

But to go from bowl team to Playoff contender, Cal will need to get more out of its passing game. Second-year starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza had a solid performance in Week 2 at Auburn, going 25-of-36 for 233 yards with two touchdowns and no picks, but he has had just five completions of 20-plus yards. Wilcox’s teams never seem to have a game-breaking receiver. Perhaps New Mexico State transfer Jonathan Brady or redshirt freshman Nyziah Hunter can break the mold.

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Cal is currently 0-0 in ACC play. But conference schedule-makers gave the Bears a fascinating first two games. If they can win at Doak Campbell Stadium, they return home to face a top-10 Miami team. That might be the biggest game in Berkeley since Texas came to town in 2016.

Who are Cal’s honorary captains for the CFP championship game? — Paul S.

I know I should say Aaron Rodgers, Marshawn Lynch and DeSean Jackson, but I’d rather see some of the people behind the #Calgorithm memes. I hope Cal reaches the championship game just to see how diabolical they can get.

If Washington State could go undefeated, is an at-large berth to the 12-team Playoff probable, possible or remote? — Mark K.

Great question. I can’t say I know the answer. We’re dealing with a double dose of unchartered territory here with both a 12-team Playoff and a two-team conference.

It would come down to strength of schedule. Wazzu needs Texas Tech and/or Washington to be a Playoff-caliber team., and it’s probably not going to be the Red Raiders. Jedd Fisch’s Huskies look more respectable than I figured they’d be with a brand-new roster, in particular defensively. They held the Cougars to seven points in the second half on Saturday. But Washington has a brutal conference schedule, with trips to Rutgers (on a Friday), Iowa, Indiana, Penn State and Oregon, Michigan and USC traveling to Seattle.

Let’s say, more realistically, Washington goes 8-4 and Texas Tech goes 6-6 (the latter may be optimistic). Wazzu also beats a 10-win Boise State team and 7-5 Oregon State team on the road. The other eight foes are Mountain West or FCS teams. Which would the committee be more impressed with: going 12-0 against a schedule with, at most, two lower opponents or an SEC team going 9-3 while playing three top 10 teams and two other Top 25 foes?

My guess is the latter, but, again, there’s no blueprint for this scenario.

Having seen UCLA’s performance in the last two games and with the next three games at LSU, vs. Oregon and at Penn State, where is the hope? — Colt B.

Hmm. Perhaps you could hope UCLA re-joins the Pac-12? You’d make less money, but think of how much you’d save traveling to San Diego and Fresno instead of heading to State College.

(Top photo of Josh Heupel: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)