New poll shows whether Harris or Trump has the edge in the most important battleground

According to a new poll conducted exclusively after last week’s debate, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Trump by three percentage points in Pennsylvania, arguably the most important of the seven swing states in the general election.

Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, leads Trump, the Republican candidate, 49 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in Pennsylvania, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted Wednesday through Saturday (Sept. 11-14).

The vice president’s lead over the former president among 500 respondents is within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

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The poll was conducted before the second assassination attempt on Trump on Sunday. The poll was released on Monday, 50 days before Election Day on November 5.

Both Harris and Trump have made repeated stops in Pennsylvania this summer, where, along with Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, razor-thin majorities decided the outcome of the 2020 election between Trump and President Biden. And these seven states will likely determine whether Harris or Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.

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But with 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the largest of the decisive battlegrounds. And while the campaigns and their allied super PACs are pumping resources into all seven states, more money has been spent on running campaign events. in Pennsylvania than in any other battleground. And both sides have spent more money securing future airtime in the Keystone State than in any other swing state, according to figures from AdImpact, a leading national advertising tracking company.

Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, is one of the three Rust Belt states that form the Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall.”

The party had reliably won all three states for a quarter of a century before Trump narrowly won them in the 2016 election and entered the White House.

Four years later, in 2020, Biden won all three states by a razor-thin majority, bringing them back to the Democrats and defeating Trump.

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In addition to her nationwide lead over Trump, two separate polls from USA Today and Suffolk University conducted after the debate in Erie and Northampton counties – two indicator polls that have historically predicted which presidential candidate will win in Pennsylvania – suggest the vice president is ahead by mid-single digits.

All three polls suggest that a growing gender gap benefiting Harris is increasing her overall lead over Trump.

In the national poll, Harris is 17 points ahead of Trump among female voters, while the former president is only 12 points ahead of the vice president among men. In Erie and Northampton counties, Harris is even further ahead among women.

“This is a women’s advantage on steroids,” Dave Paleologos, director of the Center for Political Research at Suffolk University, told Fox News. “In all three data sets, the women’s lead is almost twice as large as Trump’s lead among men.”

The USA Today/Suffolk poll is the first conducted in Pennsylvania since the debate in Philadelphia. A CBS News poll on the ground in early September, the week before the debate, suggested a neck-and-neck race in the Keystone State.

“It’s the only state where it’s hard to imagine someone losing the presidential election and then winning,” Mark Harris, a longtime national strategist and Republican ad maker from Pittsburgh, told Fox News Digital earlier this month. “It’s clearly ground zero.”

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Source of the original article: New poll shows whether Harris or Trump has the edge in the most important battleground