Top picks from the CFB betting splits for UNLV-Kansas and Arizona-Kansas State

Tonight is Friday Night Lights in college football with two exciting matchups in primetime. Let’s examine where the smart money is heading with our VSiN betting splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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UNLV (2-0) just scored a convincing 72-14 win over Utah Tech and is now the home favorite by 41.5 points. Kansas (1-1), meanwhile, lost to Illinois 23-17 and was the away favorite by 5 points.

This line started with Kansas as a 7-point favorite. Early money beat Kansas, pushing the Jayhawks up from -7 to -9.5. However, we’re starting to see some low-price buybacks on UNLV as a bloated road dog, as some trades are pushing UNLV +9.5 up to -115, suggesting a potential top and resistance point. Some trades have even gotten down to UNLV +9. The public is split, with about 50% of the spread bets on either side. However, UNLV is only getting 48% of the spread bets but 69% of the spread dollars, a notable sharp betting discrepancy of “low bets, higher dollars.”

The total started at 57.5 and is still at 57.5. However, a closer look at the line history shows that the total rose as high as 59 throughout the week before falling back to 57.5. Essentially, we’re seeing a stealthy Sharp liability on the Over, as the total has only stayed the same or increased and never dipped below the opening number. The Over is getting 67% of the bets and 78% of the dollars, suggesting modest public support but also respected Sharp action. UNLV is averaging 50 PPG on offense, while Kansas is averaging 32.5 PPG. These two teams met in a bowl game last season, and Kansas won 49-36.

Arizona (2-0, 20th) swept Northern Arizona 22-10 last week, but couldn’t hold its own as a 37.5-point home favorite. Likewise, Kansas State (2-0, 14th) beat Tulane 34-27, but couldn’t hold its own as a 9-point away favorite.

This line opened with Kansas State as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public sees two seeded teams with a wide touchdown spread and is leaning toward Arizona plus the points. With 58% of spread bets and 54% of spread dollars on Arizona, the line has dropped from +7.5 to +7 in favor of the Road Dog. It will be interesting to see which way this line moves next, either down to 6.5 or back up to 7.5. Kansas State would be considered a “Fade the Trendy Dog” favorite, as it only receives 42% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. When two seeded teams face off, the home favorite is 113-75 ATS (60%) and has a 16% ROI since 2016. Friday night home favorites of 7 or more points are 91-74 ATS (55%) and have a 6% ROI since 2015.

The smarties are expecting a high-scoring game and have thrashed the over, pushing the total up from 56.5 to 60.5. Some shops are pushing the over bet from 60.5 to -115, signaling a possible further rise to 61. The over is getting 68% of the bets and 78% of the dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” betting discrepancy. Arizona is averaging 41.5 PPG on offense. Kansas State is averaging 37.5. If the total goes up by at least three points on Friday night, the over is 68-50 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2005.