Russian leaks on Turkey’s application to join BRICS unsettle Ankara

When Turkey submitted an official application for membership in the BRICS economic association, the Turkish public first learned about it from the Russians.

“Turkey has submitted an application for full membership and it is being considered,” Yuri Ushakov, an adviser to Vladimir Putin, told reporters earlier this month.

Ankara’s interest in the BRICS – an acronym for the founding members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – is not new.

More than a year before his application, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had repeatedly expressed his willingness to join the group. In June, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced during a visit to China that Ankara might try its luck this year.

The BRICS are often seen as an alternative to the G7, which is mainly led by Western states, and their growing popularity represents a significant shift in global power dynamics. If Turkey is successful in its bid to join, it would be the first NATO ally to join the bloc.

Nevertheless, insiders in Ankara are puzzled by Russia’s statements and media leaks regarding Turkey’s application for membership.

Russian statements since June have only increased the confusion.

“We also tend to believe that Russia is exploiting this issue to score points in the West.”
– Official from BRICS country

If Russia, as Turkish politicians have suggested, wants Turkey to join, why did Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov immediately respond to Fidan’s comments by saying that the BRICS are not interested in enlargement?

“By an overwhelming majority, the ten nations decided to take a ‘pause’ in the admission of new members to accommodate the new members who have doubled the size of the association,” Lavrov said.

Although the BRICS country does not have a permanent leader, Russia recently took over the presidency and plans to host a summit in Kazan from October 22 to 24.

The Kremlin again announced that Erdogan would attend the summit.

Turkish politicians were curious whether a possible expansion of the bloc would be discussed at the summit.

The tension was finally dispelled again by Lavrov, who told Russian media last week that the issue of enlargement would be discussed at the Kazan summit, but not in the way Ankara had hoped.

He explained that the BRICS countries would create a category called “partner states” that would be separate from full membership.

Lavrov further suggested that the rules and values ​​of the BRICS countries could prevent members from joining other associations or blocs such as NATO, contradicting earlier statements by a senior Turkish official.

“A negotiating tactic”

Lavrov’s mixed signals regarding Ankara’s NATO membership, the creation of obstacles on the way there and the fact that he revealed everything to the press have unsettled Turkey and increased suspicions that Russia has an agenda.

“This is a negotiating tactic to move Turkey on some issues,” said an official from a BRICS country.

“Many support Turkey’s membership because it can disrupt NATO, and the same goes for the Russians.”

However, the matter is more complicated than what Moscow wants.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman did not even mention Turkey by name when commenting on the country’s desire to join BRICS, but simply stated that Beijing was interested in cooperating with countries seeking to join.

The Indian Foreign Ministry, however, told journalists last week that New Delhi would decide by consensus.

Sidhant Sibal, an Indian foreign affairs journalist, said bilateral issues such as Ankara’s lukewarm relationship with New Delhi play a role in the process, but consensus and the evolving process are ultimately what matters.

As the BRICS country official put it: “India is the problem.”

In addition, the issue of joining the EU could put Turkey in a difficult position, especially if the BRICS countries have to wait many years for full membership.

Ankara has been waiting for EU membership since the 1960s. If the BRICS countries were to give Erdogan’s government the same treatment, it would be a bad image and would only increase the frustration of the Turkish public.

“Although BRICS is a significant international alliance, it is not enough to be a cohesive, unified force like the EU,” says Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund think tank.

“Therefore, it cannot represent an alternative to the EU for Türkiye, at least for the moment.”

Unluhisarcikli said Moscow could use this tactic to deepen the rift between Turkey and the West, especially NATO.

A second politician from a BRICS country echoed this view, speculating that Russia’s stance toward Turkey’s membership might be driven by an undeclared agenda.

“We also tend to believe that Russia is exploiting this issue to score points in the West,” the official said.