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topicnews · September 9, 2024

Tropical storm could form in the Gulf and develop into a hurricane

Tropical storm could form in the Gulf and develop into a hurricane

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A potential tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico could strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday and head toward the coast of Upper Texas or southwest Louisiana.

After weeks of relative calm, the National Hurricane Center put the probability of a tropical storm forming within 48 hours at 90% in an update at 10 p.m. CT on Sunday.

A tropical storm warning was issued Sunday for southern Texas from Port Mansfield south to the Rio Grande, meaning tropical storm-force winds are possible along the coast through Tuesday evening. A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the Mexican coast south to Barra del Tordo.

The center of the system was estimated to be located 320 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and about 550 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, on Sunday evening. With sustained winds estimated at 50 mph, the elongated system was moving north-northwest at a scant 5 mph.

The hurricane center expects the system to develop into a tropical storm on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the observation area along the northeast coast of Mexico and the southern tip of Texas.

Unless one of the systems observed in the tropical Atlantic forms first, this storm would be the sixth named storm of the 2024 season and would be named Francine. Hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm warnings are expected along the upper coast of Texas and Louisiana on Monday.

The system, designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, is one of three the hurricane center is monitoring. Another is in the central tropical Atlantic and has a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm within 48 hours. A storm further east has a 50 percent chance of developing within the next week.

The center forecasts the storm to become a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday with low wind speeds of 80 mph (129 kph). The storm is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) of rain to the coast, with some areas of northeastern Mexico and along the Texas and Louisiana coasts potentially receiving up to 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain by Thursday, raising the risk of flash flooding, the center said.

The system in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to move more quickly northeastward late Tuesday as it encounters a cold front on the Gulf Coast. It would move just off the Texas coast toward a possible landfall on the Texas or Louisiana coast on Wednesday, Donald Jones, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, Louisiana, said in a Sunday evening briefing.

Jones urged residents in southwest Louisiana to keep an eye on the weather, saying there is at least some chance the storm could even become a Category 2 hurricane. So far, the storm could make landfall on the southwest Louisiana coast Wednesday evening, Jones said.

Water temperatures in the Gulf are warmer than normal and could favor hurricane development, Jones said. Once the system forms a well-defined center, steady strengthening is possible, according to the hurricane center. The storm would be over the warm Gulf in an area of ​​abundant moisture, the hurricane center explained, but could encounter an increase in wind shear and slightly drier air, which could prevent significant strengthening.

“South of Interstate 10 in southwest Louisiana, we’re going to see 8 to 12 inches of rainfall,” Jones said.

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Saildrone sails into the big waves of Hurricane Ernesto

The Saildrone Explorer intercepted Hurricane Ernesto on August 15 and filmed high seas with an average height of the top third of the waves of 26.5 feet.

Provided by Saildrone and NOAA

The biggest danger right now is flooding, Jones said. The tropical storm’s track shifted slightly eastward on Sunday and could move even further east, he said.

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