Spanish tourist hotspot loved by millions of Brits could be ‘like a desert’ by 2050 | World | News

Spain could “change from a Mediterranean climate to a steppe climate” as a result of climate change, warns a study by the Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC) in Barcelona. The study, entitled “Spain: Towards a drier and warmer climate”, analyses the evolution of temperatures and rainfall from 1971 to 2022 throughout Spain and makes a forecast of the climate on the mainland and the Balearic Islands until 2050.

The study was presented at the International Meteorological Congress of the European Meteorological Society (EMS) in Barcelona.

Researchers from the UPC’s Centre for Land Policy and Evaluation (CPSV) addressed the issue of structural climate change and explained the relationship between the process of global warming affecting the mainland and especially the Balearic Islands and the parallel process towards a drier climate, reported the Majorca Daily Bulletin.

If the warming trend of recent years continues, the study predicts a 14 to 20 percent decrease in rainfall compared to current levels by 2050. The study warns that global warming will cause a “fundamental change” in Spain’s climate by 2050. According to the report, average temperatures have increased by 0.042 °C per year between 1971 and 2022.

The difference between 2022 and 1971 is 3.27 °C in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands, well above the global average of 1.19 °C and the Mediterranean average of 1.58 °C, using CMIP6 historical estimates as a reference.

Spain is currently classified as having a typical Mediterranean climate, also known as a dry-summer climate, characterized by hot, dry summers and mild, wet winters. The Mediterranean Basin, as well as parts of California, Chile, South Africa and southwestern Australia, have this climate. Average rainfall is around 700 to 2,500 kg/m2/year.

However, Spain’s climate could soon turn into a drier and warmer, steppe-like or even desert-like climate. A steppe climate is a semi-arid climate characterized by hot summers and cold winters, with significant seasonal temperature variations and only 25 to 50 centimeters of rainfall per year. Steppes include countries such as Russia, Ukraine, China, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. According to the report, there was a decrease in rainfall of 0.93 mm per year between 1971 and 2022.

The report predicts that average annual rainfall in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands will be well below 417 mm/year in 2050. This is 126.3 mm less than in the period 1971-2000 and almost 109.6 mm less than in the last decade.

For Barcelona in particular, studies predict a climate change from mild, dry winters and hot summers to a steppe and semi-desert climate.

According to the state meteorological agency (AEMET), August 2024 was the warmest August in Spain since weather records began in 1961. With an average temperature of 25 °C, it surpassed the previous warmest Augusts of 2003 and 2023, which were tied at 24.8 °C.

According to the Ministry for Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO), the 25 °C is 2 °C above the average for August, taking the period between 1991 and 2020 as a reference period. In the Balearic Islands, the average temperature was 26.8 °C (eight tenths of a degree above normal), while in the Canary Islands it was also above normal, at 24 °C.

On July 20, Spanish authorities issued an orange heat warning, posing a “significant health risk” for several regions of the southern and central mainland, including Anadalucia, Extremadura and Madrid, as the country braced for its hottest day in 74 years, with temperatures expected to reach 44 degrees, caused by a blast of hot air from sub-Saharan Africa.