AFL final: What we learned – ‘catastrophic’ selection decision cost the Blues the jump

THE GABBA – The Brisbane Lions have booked their place in the semi-finals for the sixth consecutive year after holding a 28-point lead from start to finish in their dismantling of Carlton at the Gabba on Saturday night.

The Lions travel to Sydney next week to face GWS after the Giants blew a 28-point lead against Sydney in their qualifying final on Saturday.

Here are three things we learned from the game:

The Blues lost when Tom De Koning was named as a substitute

The Blues dragged themselves into the final. They were outside the top eight for almost half of the last home and away game of the season, with Fremantle leading the Power in Perth. A result that, had it stood, would have relegated Carlton to ninth place.

Instead, the beleaguered Blues barely made it into September without key strikers Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, young star Tom De Koning, defender Mitch McGovern and midfielders Adam Cerra and Zac Williams, and there is a lot at stake ahead of their elimination final against the Lions.

Don’t worry, with the week off between Round 24 and the first week of finals, Carlton always had to take risks with player selection, but ultimately these decisions turned heads, especially the decision to select Ruck phenomenon De Koning as a replacement.

After the Blues conceded the first nine goals of the game, De Koning was brought on for Matthew Kennedy barely 15 minutes into the second half. Kennedy was not injured, it was a tactical substitution, and the midfielder was visibly upset by the decision, having travelled to meet the team a day after his wife gave birth to his first child.

The big man’s impact was immediate. His presence in the ruck energized his teammates and he picked up two contested marks for a side that had barely looked like competing in marking contests in the previous 45 minutes. He sparked Carlton’s comeback just as he sparked the Blues into form in 2024. He finished the game with 11 possessions, seven contested possessions, three contested marks and three clearances.

Carlton’s resistance was of course in vain, but the decision to bring on De Koning when he could not finish the game was a catastrophic mistake.

The Lions need to be sharper in front of the posts

Better teams will punish Brisbane, who failed to finish in the top four due to their poor kicking performance in the closing stages of the home and away season. In their last three games, in which they went 1-2 and missed the double chance, the Lions kicked a total of 30.49.

In the first five minutes against the Blues, it looked like it was the same old story for this team. They had missed 0.3 chances of any available and despite periods of dominance, there were murmurs from the Gabba wide position. Could it happen to them again?

Of course, the Lions scored nine unanswered goals en route to a ten-goal lead early in the second half, putting the result beyond doubt, but as the Blues caught up, Brisbane’s inaccuracy almost prevented them from deciding the game.

The final margin of 28 points really flattered the Blues, who were never in contention. Brisbane shot 14.15 and had three misses. Accuracy remains one of the Lions’ biggest problems and with them now needing to win three times away from home from now on, they cannot afford to keep wasting chances.

Carlton did not use Brisbane’s strengths

Before facing the Blues on Saturday night, the Lions were ranked first in the league for uncontested markers and third for front-half interceptions.

Their accurate and precise brand of football works particularly well at the Gabba, so it was reasonable to assume that Carlton had a plan to address and limit the effectiveness of Chris Fagan’s game plan.

But just 10 minutes into the first period, it was clear that they had no match for the Lions. The home team were competitive and were able to score the ball unchallenged. The Blues struggled to get out of the defensive half and instead tried to cover long distances.

Then it happened: The Lions had a feast, losing possession in their front half and picking apart the Blues defence with ease. By the quarter they had scored 28 uncontested goals to Carlton’s 13 and were six goals ahead.

The architect? Australian halfback Dayne Zorko was allowed to move freely and had 18 possessions and an assist by halftime. He was behind pretty much every Lions attack.

Voss decided to switch Ollie Hollands to the former Brisbane captain after the half-time break, but as was typical for the Blues that night, it was too little, too late.