Preview US Open 2024 women’s final: Aryna Sabalenka seeks New York revenge against home hero Jessica Pegula

The top two players, Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka, will face each other in the final of the 2024 US Open in New York over the next two weeks. The two have been among the best players for some time, basically since the tour moved to North America a few weeks ago. Sabalenka started her campaign in Washington and did well considering it was her first tournament back from injury. Preview written by James Lloyd (TennisUpToDate).

Things didn’t go so well for her in Canada, but she had a difficult trigger that saw her face Amanda Anisimova early on. In Cincinnati, however, she found the right words and won the tournament, defeating none other than Jessica Pegula in the final. Sabalenka has done brilliantly in this tournament so far, and that’s mostly down to the fact that she’s just a very good player. After finding her form before the US Open, doing well in this tournament only gave her more confidence. She’s never been a player who doubts herself too much, but there were things in her game that caused her problems. She wasn’t as consistent from the baseline as she’d hoped. She didn’t serve as well as she’d hoped, but she’s grown out of all that and become a really strong player. Sabalenka has continued her great run at the US Open, as she’s now won 11 matches in a row. There were some really good players she beat along the way.

Her run at the US Open alone consisted of straight wins over Hon, Bronzetti, Mertens, Zheng and Navarro. The only player who took a set from her was Ekaterina Alexandrova and that was mainly due to the Russian’s style of play, which is very aggressive and offensive. She is quite similar to Jessica Pegula’s style of play, which will be interesting in this match.

Pegula has been equally amazing at the US Open so far, but also in the lead-up. She is arguably the best player since the Olympics and the only reason she hasn’t been there is because her level wasn’t as high as Sabalenka’s. The only match they played, the Belarusian won, which is why she is behind her. But overall, Pegula has won more matches than Sabalenka leading up to the US Open, she has won the Canadian Open and reached the final of the Cincinnati Open.

She has a 15-1 record in her last 16 matches, with the only loss coming against Aryna Sabalenka. That’s the best streak of her career, and she’s not even close. The best indicator of that is how unfazed she’s seemed so far in New York. During some of her matches, especially the recent one against Muchova, it was difficult to see the American quickly nonchalantly moving through her matches without worrying about anything. She’s not a player who wears her emotions on her sleeve, but she never seems agitated or nervous or anything like that. It’s like she’s just playing tennis and winning her matches.

However, the match against Sabalenka is really difficult. It is the toughest player she could have faced at that moment because Sabalenka herself is just so good. It is no coincidence that these two are meeting in the US Open final. They were simply the best players before the US Open who were able to maintain this level and continue to play well.

Head-to-head statistics

As for the H2H matchup between the two, Sabalenka has the clear advantage. It’s 5-2 in favor of the Belarusian, but there are a few really interesting things to note. Sabalenka has won both of her clay court matches, which shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Although Pegula is a pretty solid clay court player by U.S. standards, the American plays her best tennis on faster clay courts like in Madrid. In general, she prefers faster surfaces like hard courts, which she’s played much better on so far in her career. The only match they’ve played at the U.S. Open was in 2020, and Pegula won that too. This match is interesting because it took place at the U.S. Open, but that was four years ago, when Sabalenka wasn’t serving as consistently or as well. She’s just too different a player to make a comparison. In general, it’s 2-2 between the two on hard courts, which is pretty interesting. On hard courts, Pegula seems to have a good chance of beating the Belarusian. She has done so in the past, although the latest match paints a rather bleak picture.

The last match was just a few weeks ago in Cincinnati and it was the final. Sabalenka won that match as easily as possible in two easy sets. Pegula looked competitive but she was no real threat to the Belarusian who simply showed that she is better overall. There are a few things in this match that could give Pegula some confidence. She came into the match strong because she had played so much tennis the week before.

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That’s not the case at the US Open, as she has won all her matches comfortably. The conditions are also a little different in New York, although both courts are faster. It’s a little less fast here, which could help her slow down the sheer power of Sabalenka, but it will also give the Belarusian more time to set up her shots. The match will depend on how the two players play and how they fit together as players. The playing styles are similar because both are very aggressive baseliners, but there are some differences. Sabalenka is the bigger player and generally has a better serve. If both served as well as they could, the Belarusian would easily win this match. It’s not even close. Pegula can serve well, but she generally doesn’t have the same pace on her serve as Sabalenka does, and it’s generally easier to get the ball back. That will be one of the things that could decide this match.

If Sabalenka can make a lot of free points with her serve, it would be much easier to win the match. The other side of the coin was shown in the match against Navarro. Her second serve can be attacked and Pegula will pounce on it. The same is true the other way round. Pegula’s serve will be attacked in any case, but the second is much slower and will be punished heavily. Sabalenka won over 50% of the points behind Pegula’s second serve in the match in Cincinnati. In contrast, she won 31 of 34 points when she hit her first serve and that decided the match. Also, it will depend on how cleanly she hits from the baseline. It’s no secret that most of these rallies will be rather short. This will not be a final played over two hours and it is unlikely that we will get three sets, and even if we do, we will probably hardly crack the two hours. Both will be looking to end the rallies quickly with their baseline play. Sabalenka is again the better racket player because she is able to generate incredible power from a standing position. She hits the forehand more often than any other female player, and that goes for the men too, which is a pretty absurd statistic.