ZDF “Politbarometer”: Zero percent for traffic light coalition – even SPD supporters now against Scholz

In the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia last Sunday, all parties in the traffic light coalition performed very poorly, which can also be attributed to the ongoing, pronounced dissatisfaction with the federal government. According to the new ZDF “Politbarometer”, 71 percent of those surveyed currently say that the federal government is doing its job rather poorly (rather well: 25 percent, the rest “don’t know”).

When asked which coalition should govern the country, none of those surveyed named the SPD, the Greens and the FDP – the traffic light in the “Politbarometer” is at zero percent. 23 percent want a government made up of the SPD and CDU/CSU, eight percent each want an alliance of the SPD and the Greens or the CDU/CSU and the FDP, and six percent want an alliance of the CDU/CSU and the Greens. Two percent want a red-red-green coalition.

However, only 38 percent of respondents believe that a union-led government would govern better. 45 percent suspect that the CDU/CSU would make no difference, and 12 percent say the government would work worse. The fact that many do not see the Union as a credible alternative to the traffic light coalition is also an important reason why parties such as the AfD and the BSW have achieved such good results.

The question of new elections is controversial among those surveyed. 49 percent are in favor of new elections, 46 percent are against. Among supporters of the CDU (56 percent), AfD (95 percent) and BSW (66 percent) there is a majority in favor of new elections. Supporters of the traffic light coalition and the Left Party are mostly against new elections.

Greens lose two percentage points

The state elections also lead to major changes in the Sunday question: The Union is at 33 percent (plus 1 percentage point compared to the last poll three weeks ago), the AfD at 17 percent (plus 1), the SPD at 15 percent (plus 1), the Greens at just 11 percent (minus 2), the BSW at 7 percent (minus 1), the FDP at an unchanged 4 percent, the Left also at 4 percent (plus 1), and all other parties together at 9 percent (minus 1) – among them is no party with three percent.

Here are the values ​​of the latest Verian/Emnid survey from Friday:

In the surveys conducted by other institutes over the past two weeks, the Union is between 31 and 33 percent, the AfD between 17 and 19 percent, the SPD between 14 and 15 percent, the Greens between 10.5 and 12 percent, the BSW between 7 and 9.5 percent, the FDP between 4 and 5 percent, the Left between 2.5 and 3 percent and all other parties together between 7.5 and 11 percent.

In order to gain a majority in Saxony and Thuringia without the AfD, the CDU is dependent on cooperation with the BSW, but in Thuringia even that is not enough. 51 percent support the CDU forming a government with the BSW in the east, while 41 percent are against it. Opinions are divided among CDU/CSU supporters (45 percent for, 46 percent against).

With a party conference resolution, the CDU has ruled out cooperation with the AfD and the Left. As far as the AfD is concerned, 72 percent of all respondents think this is correct (not correct: 25 percent), whereas only 43 percent think the general exclusion of cooperation with the Left is correct (not correct: 50 percent). Union supporters are more supportive of the incompatibility resolution: 84 percent of them are against cooperation with the AfD (in favor: 15 percent) and 59 percent are against cooperation with the Left (in favor: 35 percent).

Söder clearly ahead of Merz – SPD majority against Scholz

After the state election in Brandenburg on September 22nd, the nomination of the Union’s candidate for chancellor is imminent. Those surveyed are divided as to which of the possible candidates has the greatest chance of doing well in the federal election: 29 percent see the best chances with Markus Söder, 23 percent with Friedrich Merz, 20 percent with Hendrik Wüst and 8 percent with Daniel Günther.

Among Union supporters, Söder (32 percent) and Merz (31 percent) are almost neck and neck, followed by Wüst (25 percent) and Günther (4 percent). In the last survey in mid-August 33 percent were for Söder, 25 percent each for Merz and Wüst and 7 percent for Günther.

When it comes to assessing politicians based on their likeability and performance (“What do you think of them?”), Defense Minister Boris Pistorius remains unchallenged in first place in the “Politbarometer.” He is rated on a scale of +5 to -5 with an average value of 1.8 (August: 1.7).

Markus Söder is in second place with a clear gap with 0.2 (0.0). After that, the negative area begins: Friedrich Merz with minus 0.1 (minus 0.2), Karl Lauterbach with minus 0.8 (minus 0.5), Robert Habeck with minus 0.8 (minus 0.4), Annalena Baerbock with a personal negative record of minus 0.9 (minus 0.5), Olaf Scholz also with minus 0.9 (minus 0.7), Christian Lindner with minus 1.1 (minus 0.9), Sahra Wagenknecht with minus 1.1 (unchanged) and Alice Weidel with minus 2.7 (unchanged).

Support is also dwindling on the question of whether Olaf Scholz should run again as the SPD’s candidate for chancellor in the next federal election. Only 23 percent (August: 29 percent) want this and 74 percent (August: 67 percent) are against it.

Even SPD supporters are now divided on the issue: 47 percent are in favor, 49 percent against. In the last survey in mid-August, 53 percent were in favor and 41 percent against.

71 percent see Germany at the upper limit

The topic of refugees/asylum/migration now clearly dominates the domestic political discussion, with 45 percent (August: 27 percent). A clear majority of 71 percent are of the opinion that we in Germany can no longer cope with the large number of refugees from crisis areas, only 27 percent are optimistic. In March, 42 percent still thought that we could cope with it and 55 percent were skeptical.

The Politbarometer survey was conducted by the Mannheim Research Group on Elections. The interviews were conducted by telephone and online between September 3 and 5 with 1,328 randomly selected voters. Both landline and mobile phone numbers were taken into account. The survey represents the voting population in Germany. The margin of error is around +/- three percentage points for a share value of 40 percent and around +/- two percentage points for a share value of 10 percent.