According to Israeli analyst, Netanyahu’s political survival is more important than dealing with Hamas

JERUSALEM

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no intention of reaching an agreement with Hamas at the moment because his main concern is his political survival. This means that more and more Palestinians will continue to die in the conflict, says an Israeli military analyst.

Amos Harel stated in his article published in the Haaretz daily on Friday: “In practical terms, there is almost no contradiction between the message to the Israeli public and the message to the Qataris, because the bottom line … is that he does not seem to have any intention of reaching an agreement at the moment.”

Harel stressed that Netanyahu’s “biggest concern is his political survival.”

Ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have threatened to leave the government if an agreement includes a withdrawal from the Philadelphia Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border or the release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli hostages.

Such withdrawals would likely result in the collapse of the Netanyahu government.

Harel noted: “As long as his partners on the extreme right threaten to leave the governing coalition if he concludes an agreement that includes the release of many Palestinian prisoners and the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from the Philadelphia and Netzarim corridors, he has no government.”

“Everything else is secondary – including the lives of the remaining hostages,” he added, noting: “More and more of them will continue to die” in the Gaza Strip.

Harel also pointed out that Netanyahu’s strategy is to exclude Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and the head of the military’s missing persons and prisoners unit, Nitzan Alon, from decision-making on the war and future negotiations.

Despite heightened emotions and renewed protests in Israel following the recovery of the bodies of six hostages in Rafah, Harel believes it is “unlikely” that Netanyahu “feels particularly threatened.”

He argued: “The coalition seems quite stable, an alliance of cynics who share their own interests and plunder the state coffers. The protest movement has not yet found a way to shake up the political arena.”

Harel added: “The Biden administration does not know how to force a deal on Netanyahu.”

He said that high-ranking military officials – without naming them – were convinced: “We will have no problems returning after six weeks.”

“Certainly, if it enables us to free 20 to 30 of our people from captivity and perhaps regulate the situation in the north, at least temporarily.”

According to Harel, “military sources also admit that Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing the perpetual war in Gaza leaves the armed forces lacking many clear missions.”

For months, the United States, Qatar and Egypt have been trying to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas to exchange prisoners and agree to a ceasefire and allow humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza. But mediation efforts have stalled because Netanyahu refuses to meet Hamas’ demands for an end to the war.

Israel has continued its brutal offensive against the Gaza Strip since the Hamas attack on October 7, despite a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire.

Since then, nearly 40,900 Palestinians, mostly women and children, have been killed and more than 94,000 others injured, according to local health authorities.

The ongoing blockade of the enclave has led to severe shortages of food, clean water and medicine and left large parts of the region in ruins.

Israel is accused of genocide before the International Court of Justice for its actions in the Gaza Strip.

* Written by Ikram Kouachi

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