AfD remains strongest force in Brandenburg according to opinion poll

Less than two and a half weeks before the state election, Brandenburg is still heading for an AfD victory. According to a recent poll, the AfD is at 27 percent – ​​and is still well ahead of the SPD with 23 percent.

The Brandenburg trend, which was published on Thursday evening, was surveyed by Infratest on behalf of the ARD political magazine Kontraste of the RBB. After the AfD and SPD, the CDU follows with 18 percent, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) with 15 percent. The Greens are at five percent, which means that their return to parliament is in the balance. The Left Party received four percent and was not represented in the state parliament for the first time since 1990.

According to rbb, the representative survey of 1,207 respondents was conducted this week (September 3rd and 4th), after the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, but also after the attack in Solingen and after the announcement by Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke (SPD) that if the AfD wins the election in Brandenburg, he will stop even if he is just behind.

Free voters must hope for a direct mandate

Compared to the institute’s July survey, the SPD under Woidke was able to gain four percentage points, but was unable to reduce the gap to the AfD, which also improved by four percent. The CDU and BSW each lost one percentage point. In Brandenburg, the SPD is well above the national trend, which, according to surveys, is only at just under 15 percent nationwide.

The Free Voters, who are at three percent according to the survey, have a good chance of winning a direct mandate for their regional leader Peter Vida in the Bernau constituency and thus of being re-elected to the state parliament even if they fail to clear the five percent hurdle.

In recent polls by other institutes, the Union, now in third place, was only just behind the SPD. For the current hot election campaign phase until September 22, the Union is fully committed to an anti-traffic light election campaign in order to break the SPD’s dominance in the Mark and force the unpopular federal government to give up early. These two CDU election goals were formulated by top candidate Jan Redmann and CDU federal leader Friedrich Merz on Wednesday evening at an election rally in Brandenburg an der Havel.

Migration is the top issue for the population

“One mission is to turn off the traffic lights in Brandenburg,” said Redmann. The signals from Erfurt and Dresden were ignored, “the signal in Potsdam will not be ignored in Berlin!” The other mission is to become Prime Minister of Brandenburg and form “a real government of change.”

If the voters’ contribution is large enough, then “on September 23 – the day after – the traffic light house will burn on all three floors,” said Merz. “And then at some point the traffic light antics will be over.”

According to the current Brandenburg survey, 31 percent of respondents are in favor of the AfD participating in the government, while 61 percent are against it. 28 percent of BSW supporters and 14 percent of CDU supporters could imagine the AfD governing, while for supporters of the SPD (96 percent) and the Greens (95 percent) it is a no-go. Opinions are divided on the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance, with 42 percent in favor of the AfD participating in the government – just as many are skeptical.

The survey also provides information on which issues are currently most important to Brandenburg residents. At the top of the ranking are migration, flight and immigration (most important for 40 percent), followed by education and schools (most important for 26 percent) and in third place mobility and transport (two percent). Medical care in the state is the most urgent issue for eleven percent, the environment and climate protection for seven percent and housing shortages and rising rents for six percent. This mood will influence the parties’ election campaigns.