How Oldenburg Knights manage to stay in the league against Lübeck Cougars and Cottbus Crayfish

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Oldenburg – After the Oldenburg Knights secured their place in the league in the final spurt of their debut season in the northern division of the GFL2 a year ago, they will have to wait until the end. Or maybe not: If everything goes wrong this weekend (some would say: continues to go wrong), their relegation to the Regionalliga could be a given early. There are several scenarios as to how staying in or being eliminated from the second highest German American football league is possible now or later.

Analyze

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The relegation candidates

Due to the 23:45 home defeat against relegation rivals Cottbus Crayfish (4:12 points/6th place), the Knights (2:14/8th) fell from non-relegation place six to last place last Saturday, because the Bielefeld Bulldogs (4:14/7th) also won 42:35 against the Langenfeld Longhorns (10:8/4th). The Lübeck Cougars (6:12/5th), who will host the Oldenburgers in their last game of the season this Sunday (3 p.m., Buniamshof Stadium), are also not completely safe from becoming one of the two relegated teams.

The horror scenario

If Cottbus (4 p.m. against the sure champions Düsseldorf Panther/16:2/1.) and Bielefeld (6 p.m. against the Hamburg Pioneers/14:4/3.) win their home games this Saturday, the Knights absolutely have to win on Sunday. A defeat against the Cougars would mean relegation as the bottom of the GFL2 North would be inevitable.

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The fallacy

If only one of the rivals wins, the Oldenburg team could at best finish second to last if they lose in Lübeck. Theoretically, seventh place could have been enough to avoid relegation after the Berlin Adler stopped playing in the GFL and were relegated directly to the Regionalliga. It was already certain that Düsseldorf would be promoted as northern champions without relegation. It is now also clear that it was a fallacy that the vacant GFL2 place would go to the second to last team in the table. Instead, there is no relegation for the Regionalliga champions.

The celebration of avoiding relegation

If the Crayfish and the Bulldogs lose, the Knights could increase their chances with a win in Lübeck. But the trembling would continue. Because the Oldenburg team won the direct comparison with Bielefeld (28:17 in the only direct duel), they could no longer become the latter. To stay in the competition, however, they would also have to win their catch-up game on September 14 (Saturday, 4 p.m.) in Cottbus.

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The math game

If the Brandenburgers had beaten the Panthers, the Knights would have had to win not only in Lübeck and Cottbus, but also by a clear margin to finish at least third from last. In a three-way comparison with the same number of points as these two rivals (whose direct duel ended 36:42 and 33:31), every single point in the games counted. The fact that the Knights clearly lost the home games against the Cougars (17:34) and the Crayfish (as mentioned 23:45) could also have bitter consequences.