After the death of the first pilot: “The F-16 project is a huge risk”

After the first loss of a delivered fighter jet in Ukraine, the search for the cause of its crash continues. Various theories are circulating, but there is still no clarity.

Another important question is: How effective are the F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine’s defense efforts? The F-16 retaliation announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky after the devastating Russian air strikes has also failed to materialize.

In an interview with FOCUS online, military expert Ralph Thiele explains which theory about the crash is the most plausible and what effect the F-16 can actually have on Ukraine. According to the retired colonel, one thing is clear: there is not only a lack of trained pilots.

FOCUS online: Mr. Thiele, a week ago Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj threatened retaliation with F-16 fighter jets following massive Russian air strikes. How is this going for the Ukrainians so far?

Ralph Thiele: Unfortunately, things are not going as expected. Equipping Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets is a lengthy undertaking. Not only will the almost 100 machines that were promised take years to arrive, they also have to be technically prepared – down to the smallest detail.

F-16: “Six pilots had completed training, one was killed”

The F-16 retaliation will also be a long time coming?

Thiele: Recently, American units have updated the electronic warfare capabilities of the first F-16s delivered to Ukraine to the latest technology. There are many small things to do that require special skills. Not every pilot who has just learned to fly these jets can handle the intricacies of warfare.

This requires many years of experience and practice. To my knowledge, six foreign pilots have currently completed this training. Now one of them has died on his first mission. This has reduced the number to five, and more pilots have yet to follow.

Five F-16 pilots, that sounds like far too few.

Thiele: More than one pilot is needed per aircraft because they are to be used on a rotating basis. Such aircraft are often deployed during the day, and the crew also changes.

Lack of personnel is also an issue. What challenges are there in the technical and logistical preparation of the F-16?

Thiele: It will take some time before the F-16 fighter jets are fully operational in Ukraine. The technical preparation and training of pilots and ground crews are lengthy processes that can take months, if not years.

In addition, the logistical and infrastructural conditions must be created to effectively support and maintain the jets. All of this means that Ukraine still has a considerable way to go before the F-16 fighter jets can play a decisive role in the conflict.

“Loss of an F-16 jet and especially a pilot is serious”

You mentioned the death of a pilot. What does the loss of an F-16 jet and a pilot mean for the Ukrainian war effort?

Thiele: The loss of an F-16 jet and especially of a pilot is serious. Pilots are much more expensive and difficult to replace than the aircraft themselves, as they have to undergo long and intensive training. Such a loss has not only intangible but also significant professional consequences. The case shows that we often underestimate the complexity of warfare.

In what way?

Thiele: We have already seen this with the Leopard tanks, where the importance of logistics and ammunition was initially underestimated. It is similar with aircraft. A squadron can require up to 2,000 people to support 50 pilots. The technology, protection and relocation of these units are extremely demanding and must always function.

In addition, the air war takes place in a highly segmented airspace, which makes it difficult to distinguish friend from foe. It also requires extensive reconnaissance from space and from long-range systems such as the AWACS Airborne Early Warning and Control System. (Editor’s note: in German: Airborne Warning and Control System) .

These are not tasks that can be solved by delivering a few aircraft. They are highly complex operations that require years of preparation. The current project with the F-16 is a huge gamble that, if successful, could only produce the desired benefits in a few years.

So Ukraine is not yet ready to use the – few – F-16s profitably in the war against Russia?

Thiele: So to speak, yes. The Ukrainians can now use the jets for daring feats. That is exactly what happened to this pilot. He throws himself into the air battle and if he is lucky, he achieves something. But usually he is shot down – either by the enemy or, in the worst case, even by a friend.

“This can happen because the airspace is not so tidy”

There are already numerous theories about the shooting. Which one seems most plausible in your opinion?

Thiele: Implicitly, the friendly fire theory is the most likely. Zelensky’s brutal intervention by firing the air force chief and the fact that Ukraine was not well prepared for this war from the start play a role here. The country is now restructuring its army and air force in the middle of the war in order to be able to stand up to an overwhelming enemy. This is incredible leadership work that is being done.

Let’s stay with the friendly fire theory for a moment. How exactly can this happen?

Thiele: This can happen because the airspace is not as organized as we have in the West. Ukraine now has much more air defense than we do in Germany, which makes the whole thing more cramped and confusing. The Russians are of course firing even further, which makes the situation extremely dangerous. In other words: if the airspace is not organized, friendly fire will occur again and again. This even happens to Americans in combined operations, despite their high-tech equipment.

This is not the first time that Zelensky has sacked someone from the military leadership. A problem?

Thiele: Right, he has already fired the Chief of General Staff and now the Air Force Chief. If you remove the architects of the military build-up, things will not necessarily get better. Unless the architect did his job poorly, which was not the case here. To me, this looks like a kind of accusation by Zelensky that the Air Force Chief did not do his job properly. This is implicitly self-incrimination because it shows that they have lost their best pilots.

“The F-16 dilemma is bigger than meets the eye”

The West has not yet delivered many F-16 fighter jets. Does Ukraine find itself in an F-16 dilemma: too few aircraft, too few pilots, too high ambitions?

Thiele: Yes, the F-16 dilemma is bigger than it seems at first glance. There may be 12 machines, but they are not up to date and need to be updated at the very least. In Europe, there are licensees like the Dutch or Danish who work on the maintenance and ongoing upgrade of these machines on a one-off basis – the production facilities are more like a garage than a large factory.

They cannot suddenly get 100 aircraft ready after having previously worked on just a few. In addition, the Danes and Dutch do not have the most modern F-16 models, which brings further challenges in terms of ammunition, armament and electronic warfare.

For example?

Thiele: There are specialized teams around the world who have to contribute their skills to the preparation of these jets. The Ukraine conflict is also a reference theater of war for all weapons manufacturers and armies around the world. This also allows them to experiment with how well current systems work, learn from them and what can be improved. Integrating all of these aspects into the machines is very demanding and may even place excessive demands on the highly motivated Ukrainian pilots.

“Russia can do whatever it wants in the air within a limited time and space”

What use can the F-16 have now? Does Putin have to be afraid of the jets at all?

Thiele: Putin must take every weapon system seriously, including the F-16. We hear that he wants to revise his nuclear strategy, which shows how seriously he takes long-range aircraft and missile strikes. The F-16 is a proven fighter aircraft in multiple operational roles that the Russians know and have prepared for.

However, if you look at the total number of Russian military aircraft – over 1,000! – and the current situation in Ukraine, Russia does not have absolute air supremacy, but rather air superiority. This means that Russia can do whatever it wants in the air for a limited time and space.

However, the F-16 can help Ukraine deliver effortless pinpricks and potentially improve air defenses, but it will not decisively weaken Russia.

What does this mean specifically for Russian warfare?

Thiele: Russia will try to attack Ukrainian airfields – possibly even makeshift airfields on highways – in order to prevent the use of the F-16. It is technically and logistically very difficult for Ukraine to keep the F-16 ready for takeoff and to operate it in Ukraine.

In practice, the F-16s can help with air defense, especially in combating missiles; countering drones is difficult but possible. The use of glide bombs and longer-range missiles from the air would also be helpful in striking Russian troops or important facilities by surprise.