Fantasy Football Predictions, Expectations and Surprises for 2024

In less than a week, we’ll have NFL games that count and, with them, fantasy football scores to follow. Hope dies last and everyone has an opinion on which players will do this and which teams will do that. That’s the beauty of being a fan, right?

With that in mind, we asked our ESPN fantasy football analysts to share these thoughts with the world. If any of them come true, don’t act surprised.

Don’t be surprised if…

Adonai Mitchell ranks as a top 35 fantasy WR

Currently drafted as the WR61, the Indianapolis Colts rookie has the size and speed (his 4.34-second 40-yard dash was the third-fastest among wide receivers at this year’s combine) to make him a major threat in this offense. And with Josh Downs currently out with a high ankle sprain, Mitchell had the opportunity to build a good rapport with QB Anthony Richardson in training camp. Mitchell went unnoticed in Georgia but showed up in Texas and offered a taste of what he could become — and the Colts liked what they saw, drafting him 52nd overall. If Downs is out for an extended period of time and/or Mitchell has a good chance of playing time, he could represent a big return for fantasy managers. – Stephanie Bell

Travis Etienne Jr. lands among the top fantasy RBs

Etienne averaged 16.6 points per game and 12 touchdowns last season. He is a high-volume runner (267 carries) with the ability to score in the passing game, as Etienne caught 58 of 73 passes targeted in 2023. Even though his touch totals are down slightly this season, his usage leads to consistent weekly volume as a runner and receiver while also creating scoring opportunities in the lower red zone. There is real potential here for Etienne in a Jacksonville Jaguars offense that has the tools – and the scheme under head coach Doug Pederson – to produce explosive numbers in 2024. – Matt Bowen

Kyren Williams lands among the top five fantasy RBs

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Will Kyren Williams’ fantasy potential be affected by punt returns?

Mike Clay’s confidence in Kyren Williams is not dampened by reports that he will return punts for the Rams.

Williams’ stock is plummeting following the recent “news” that he will be the Los Angeles Rams’ primary punt returner. Note that Williams held that role for Weeks 1-3 of last season (he was responsible for all three of the Rams’ punt returns) and also played 86% of the team’s offensive snaps during that span. Williams actually opened the 2023 season in a timeshare position with Cam Akers, but took 14 of the team’s first 24 RB carries and played 67% of the snaps in a comfortable Week 1 win over Seattle. He found the end zone twice in that game and, before Austin Trammell took over punt return duties in Week 4, ranked fifth among running backs in fantasy points. We’ve already factored in a drop in Williams’ usage with rookie Blake Corum, so it feels like a mistake to double count that now that he’ll be returning one or two punts per game. A year after joining Christian McCaffrey as the only running backs to average over 18.0 fantasy PPG, the 24-year-old Williams is well-positioned for another solid RB1 season. — Michael Clay

The Denver Broncos passing game delivers outstanding fantasy numbers

In particular, Marvin Mims Jr. is becoming the shooting star in our game that so many have been expecting to be in 2023. Bo Nix’s coronation as starting quarterback is a huge plus considering he was very comfortable in the pocket and was flawless during his two preseason games. The release of Tim Patrick tightens up the pecking order at receivers, making the targets for Courtland Sutton and Mims more certain than they were a few weeks ago. Sutton, who averages as the No. 42 wide receiver, and Mims, who lines up outside the top 75 at the position, have potential that extends to the top 20 at the position. Meanwhile, Nix should be attractive in matchups and have a chance to be the surprise out of nowhere at his position — a top-12 quarterback. — Tristan H. Cockcroft

Kyle Pitts is TE1 this season

The first three seasons of Pitts’ career were frustrating for his fantasy managers. Even Pitts’ rookie season, in which he became only the second tight end in league history to debut with 1,000 yards receiving, was a bit disappointing as he scored just one touchdown. Injuries, quarterback play and game strategy have been the co-conspirators over the past two years. This season, it’s all finally coming together. Pitts will play in an Atlanta Falcons offense that features his exceptional talents and is led by a competent QB in Kirk Cousins. This time next year, we’ll be looking at Pitts as a Round 2-3 fantasy pick. — Tyler Fulghum

Derrick Henry runs for 20 touchdowns

Maybe that’s not bold enough. 25 points? Henry has scored double-digit rushing touchdowns in six straight seasons, but even in his 2,000-yard season, he “only” had 17. And that was in a 16-game season. Now he gets 17 games, and the Baltimore Ravens offense is in the perfect position to do so, with a stronger offensive line, an elusive quarterback with outstanding skills and creative plays. If Gus Edwards can score 13 touchdowns, what can Henry do? Yes, he’s 30, but he still destroys defenders and picks up yards after contact. Plus, there are more touchdowns than receptions in the game. — Eric Karabell

Rome Odunze overtakes Keenan Allen as Caleb Williams’ No. 2 target

It’s a matter of when, not if. Odunze will be Williams’ second-favorite target behind DJ Moore before the season ends. Odunze has exuded alpha energy throughout his college career (10 games with at least 100 receiving yards in 2023 and a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award) and since being selected as the Chicago Bears’ ninth pick. He and Williams have shown instant chemistry. The two particularly hit it off on an unstructured play that resulted in a beautiful 45-yard pass during the team’s third preseason game against Cincinnati. A player with Odunze’s build, route knowledge and catch radius can’t be limited to the third wide receiver role for long. His stats may be a little inconsistent to start, but he’s a great pick with 10th-round potential (an astonishing three rounds after Allen’s selection). — Lisa Loza

Travis Kelce lands outside the top 5 TEs

Kelce is still one of the best (if not the best) tight ends in the game, but the gap between him and the rest of the field has shrunk considerably. Since 2016, Kelce has been the best tight end six times and has never been worse than a TE3 during that span. His dominant run has been impressive, but now Kelce has competition, not just in his own offense, but from a number of other exciting fantasy-relevant tight ends. Think Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, Evan Engram, David Njoku, and (now that he has a real QB) Kyle Pitts, to name a few. Kelce turns 35 this year and also has to contend with Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown stealing targets in the Kansas City Chiefs offense. Kelce had the second-lowest target share of his career last season, and that was before the Chiefs added more weapons to the offense. Nothing gold lasts forever, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a changing of the guard at the top of the tight end position this season. — Daniel Dopp

Caleb Williams throws for over 4,000 yards and is a top-10 fantasy QB

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Why Field Yates relies on Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams in the fantasy sector

Field Yates explains why he’s excited to see the rookie QB class shine in fantasy football.

The Bears are the only team that has never had a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards in a season. Surrounded by an impressive supporting cast, Williams is well-positioned to end that drought. The No. 1 pick will be the first rookie quarterback selected in the top five and throws to multiple players who had at least 1,200 receiving yards the previous season (Moore, Allen). He will also have an additional target: Odunze, another rookie in the first round who led the FBS with 1,640 receiving yards in his final college season at Washington. Williams’ running potential gives him high fantasy upside. — Eric Moody

Jayden Daniels lands among the top seven fantasy QBs as a rookie

Daniels ranks 12th in my preseason rankings as a QB, one spot ahead of Caleb Williams among all rookie signal-callers. Daniels has a lot of ingredients in his favor to have a great season right out of the gate, as he has outstanding mobility for the position (last season he led all FBS players in yards per run attempt, minimum 100 runs), is a gifted thrower, and will power a fast-paced offense that will frequently play from behind this season. While we often harp on the importance of the run for quarterbacks to create a high level of play, Daniels also has great potential. — Field Yates