RTL/ntv trend barometer: Union ahead of traffic light coalition, Merz distances himself from Scholz

RTL/ntv trend barometer
Union ahead of traffic light coalition, Merz distances himself from Scholz

03.09.2024, 14:05

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The state elections in the east went well for the CDU, even though difficult coalition talks are pending in Saxony and Thuringia. The Union is also doing well at the federal level: According to the RTL/ntv trend barometer, the sister parties and Friedrich Merz are also supported by the trend.

After the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the traffic light coalition is in an even worse position at the federal level than before. Because the SPD has lost one point and the CDU/CSU has gained one point, the Union is now two percentage points ahead of the three governing parties. The Union’s likely candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has also managed to distance himself from the incumbent Olaf Scholz.

If the Bundestag were to meet this week, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 32 percent (federal election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), AfD 17 percent (10.3 percent), SPD 14 percent (25.7 percent), Greens 11 percent (14.8 percent), BSW 7 percent (-), FDP 5 percent (11.5 percent). The approval rating for the Left is 3 percent (4.9 percent). Other parties accounted for 11 percent of respondents.

In the survey conducted between August 27 and September 2, the Islamist-motivated terrorist attack in Solingen was named as one of the most important topics. The knife attack and the federal government were each named by 28 percent, just behind the war in Ukraine with 30 percent. 23 percent of respondents also considered the state elections to be important. The Middle East conflict, immigration, the economic situation and the US presidential election campaign were also mentioned with values ​​between 15 and 17 percent. 8 percent also mentioned the topic of climate and the environment.

With 20 percent of respondents saying that the CDU and CSU are still considered to have the greatest problem-solving skills, while the SPD is named by 7 percent and the Greens by 6 percent. Both parties have lost one point compared to the previous week. The AfD, on the other hand, has gained two points to 8 percent. The FDP is stagnating at one percent. 53 percent do not trust any party to have the ability to solve problems – one point less than the previous week.

15 percent of respondents expect the economic situation in Germany to improve in the next few years. That is one percentage point less than last week. The proportion of respondents who have serious expectations has increased by one point to 63 percent. 20 percent expect no change, one percentage point more than last week.

Although the Union is clearly in the lead in both the Sunday question and the question about the greatest problem-solving competence, CDU chairman Friedrich Merz has hardly been able to benefit personally from the mood for a long time. Last week he was even tied with the unpopular Scholz when asked who people wanted as chancellor. That is changing this week: Merz’s approval rating has increased from 25 to 27 percent, Scholz’s has fallen from 25 to 23 percent – both changes are within the statistical margin of error of 2.5 percent.

As in the previous week, 50 percent of respondents rejected both candidates. The likely Green Party candidate for chancellor, Robert Habeck, is no longer part of the questionnaire for the time being because, according to the trend barometer, the Greens’ prospects of providing the next chancellor are currently slim.

Merz is gaining ground, especially in his own camp: Among CDU and CSU supporters, 61 percent now want him in the chancellorship instead of 58 percent. 39 percent of them reject the Union parliamentary group leader as chancellor. In contrast, Scholz still has 70 percent in his own camp. The Union officially plans to consider the chancellor candidacy in the weeks after the state election in Brandenburg on September 22nd.

The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer were collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between August 27 and September 2. Data basis: 2,508 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.

Further information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany.