This is what the election results in Saxony and Thuringia mean for RLP

A heavy blow for the democratic parties! A democratic turning point! A political disaster! These are the reactions from Rhineland-Palatinate to the fact that the AfD, the first party in post-war history that is considered to be clearly right-wing extremist, has won a state election.

It is unclear whether the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia can be seen as a mood test for the whole of Germany, or whether they will also send a signal to Rhineland-Palatinate.

Parties in RLP are established differently

The conditions in Rhineland-Palatinate are very different from those in Saxony and Thuringia. In the two eastern German states, the AfD, which is classified as right-wing extremist, has had a much larger following for some time. In Saxony, for example, it was already approaching the 30 percent mark five years ago, and has now just exceeded it.

The SPD – but above all the Greens and FDP – have long had a difficult time in both states. In Rhineland-Palatinate, the SPD has been the Prime Minister for over 30 years and has led the state government – at times together with the FDP and now in the second legislative period with the Greens and FDP. This means that all three parties have a completely different base and acceptance in Rhineland-Palatinate.

What do the elections mean for RLP?

It is clear that the federal traffic light coalition has a big problem right now. It is also being blamed for the poor performance of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP in Saxony and Thuringia. The traffic light coalition in Berlin, with its constant quarrels, has generally lost support, which was also reflected in the election results on Sunday. In addition, federal political issues such as migration, the citizen’s allowance and aid for Ukraine dominated the election campaign.

The Rhineland-Palatinate traffic light coalition should therefore be very interested in continuing on its old course. This means governing together as quietly as possible, without public disputes, allowing each other to have successes and allowing all three governing parties room to maneuver in their policies. But they also need a clear strategy on how they want to deal with the AfD if they don’t want it to gain any more support.

According to political scientist Uwe Jun from the University of Trier, the success of the AfD and the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is not surprising. For years, there has been a sharp increase in new parties that were initially founded as protest parties and in parties that tended to represent the radical fringes. “In fact, one could say that the stability of party democracy in Germany is in danger. And the other parties are not able to stop this long-term trend,” said Jun on SWR.

After state elections in Saxony and Thuringia
Political scientists on possibilities for forming a government

What are the consequences of the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia? Political scientist Prof. Dr. Uwe Jun from the University of Trier talks about this.

This is how the elections in the east could affect RLP

It is essentially impossible for the election results in Saxony and Thuringia to have a direct influence on Rhineland-Palatinate. Only if the AfD succeeded in gaining a share in the government would it be able to influence decisions that affect all federal states via the Bundesrat. Saxony and Thuringia each have 4 seats, i.e. 8 out of a total of 69.

At the moment, however, it does not look as if other parties want to form a coalition with the AfD in Saxony or Thuringia. It is more likely that the Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance will be part of one or both future state governments. The BSW would then have the opportunity to influence decisions that have a national impact via the Bundesrat in votes. For example, the BSW is against Germany continuing to financially support Ukraine in its war against Russia.

Impact of election results on the AfD in RLP unclear

In this year’s European elections, the AfD was able to gain ground in Rhineland-Palatinate, reaching 14.7 percent. It is uncertain whether it will be boosted by the state election results in Saxony and Thuringia. In Rhineland-Palatinate, too, the SPD has recently seen falling poll ratings. However, the AfD was unable to benefit from this and, according to the Rhineland-Palatinate trend from July, actually lost three percentage points compared to February, reaching 12 percent.

This is a long way from the party’s results in Saxony and Thuringia. According to the survey, the CDU is currently by far the strongest force in Rhineland-Palatinate.