Analysis: Where the votes for AfD and BSW came from

Why did so many people in Saxony and Thuringia vote for a party that is classified as right-wing extremist? How was the BSW able to gain so much trust so quickly? And how much did the BSW cost the AfD votes?

According to projections, more than 40 percent of voters in Saxony and even more than 45 percent in Thuringia did not vote for any of the established, democratic parties this time. Instead, they voted for the AfD, which is classified as definitely right-wing extremist by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution in both states. Or they voted for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which was founded just a few months ago and whose political positions are still difficult to assess.

Surveys that infratest dimap on behalf of the ARD The survey conducted on election day and the days leading up to it provide interesting explanations.

Less protest, more conviction

First, let’s look at the AfD: It was already very strong in both states in the 2019 election. According to projections, it gained slightly in Saxony and significantly in Thuringia. It is now the strongest force there. In both states, a trend that was already evident five years ago is continuing: the AfD is increasingly perceived as a “normal” party in eastern Germany. It is being voted for less and less out of protest and more and more out of conviction – especially in Thuringia.

AfD ahead of other parties in social policy

This is particularly evident in surveys when it comes to so-called competence attributions – that is, the question of which party people trust most to solve certain political tasks. In many state elections – in both East and West – the AfD has recently gained ground here.

In Saxony and Thuringia, it is now in first place for the first time in several areas: in addition to asylum and refugee policy and the representation of East German interests, it is also in social policy – although critics accuse it of having little to offer the socially disadvantaged. And at least in Thuringia, it is now almost on a par with the CDU on the “meta question” – which party can best solve the most important problems in the country.

Limiting immigration also popular outside the AfD

After 1945, it was long considered inconceivable in both parts of Germany that a right-wing extremist party could achieve this. But in Saxony and Thuringia, a second trend that has been evident in surveys for some time is confirmed: Most of those who vote for the AfD like its positioning on the extreme right – or at least are not bothered by it. For example, 87 percent of AfD voters in Thuringia say that they do not care that the AfD is considered right-wing extremist in parts, as long as it addresses the right issues. In Saxony, the figure is 78 percent.

And one of the issues that the AfD specifically addresses is immigration. Although this is primarily decided in Berlin and Brussels and not in Dresden and Erfurt, it was still the decisive issue in these state elections for around 20 percent of eligible voters.

The AfD’s stance here is also popular outside of its own electorate. In both federal states, around 60 percent of all eligible voters say they think it is good that the AfD wants to place greater restrictions on the influx of people from abroad – around ten percentage points more in each case than in 2019.

Not a purely “Eastern phenomenon”

However, this is not just an “Eastern phenomenon”: in the state elections in Bavaria last autumn, around half of those eligible to vote approved of the AfD’s stance on migration issues. And given the general change in mood in Germany, one can assume that this figure would also be higher in Bavaria today.

However, the AfD did not achieve such high election results in Bavaria or elsewhere in state elections in western Germany as it did in Saxony and Thuringia. Was it different in Saxony and Thuringia? In addition to the increasing “normalization” of the party in the east, which has already been described, another factor is that long-term party loyalty is significantly lower in the east than in the west. And studies also show that right-wing attitudes are more widespread in the east than in the west – something that the AfD naturally trains itself on.

Only a few AfD supporters have a problem with Höcke

The fact that many people there increasingly no longer have a problem with right-wing extremist positions is particularly evident in the person of Björn Höcke – the AfD’s top candidate in Thuringia, who is considered a pioneer and a kind of “figurehead” of the right-wing within the party. In 2019, 44 percent of AfD supporters said that Höcke was too close to right-wing extremist positions for them. In 2024, only 16 percent said this.

The AfD has gained particularly strongly among the group of very young voters under 24 – a trend that was already evident in the European elections in June. However, it has performed extremely poorly – especially in Thuringia – in the age group of those who are 70 or older. This also applies to people who were born in the post-war period or at a time when Germany was still ruled by a right-wing extremist dictatorship.

Voters have a lot of confidence in the BSW

This brings us to the big winner of the elections, the BSW. In both countries, the party, which was only founded at the beginning of the year, achieved double-digit results. And there is something else unusual: while other newly founded parties often initially focused on one issue – for example, the AfD initially focused on Euroscepticism, and the Greens in the 1980s on environmental protection and nuclear power – the BSW is perceived by voters to have an astonishingly broad range of positions.

When it comes to the attribution of competence, the party immediately achieves double-digit values ​​in several areas – for example, in the representation of East German interests or social justice. And at least ten percent of eligible voters in Thuringia say that the BSW is the party that can best solve the most important tasks – a similar number to those of the Left Party, which has so far provided the Prime Minister, and more than those of the SPD.

Although the BSW election manifestos contain very clearly defined demands, it is still difficult to assess the BSW politically – also because it is strongly tailored to one person: the founder and namesake Sahra Wagenknecht.

Attitude towards Russia attracts support – among BSW supporters

With its stance on Russia and its war against Ukraine, the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance has a unique selling point, which is also solid. In Saxony, 55 percent of eligible voters say they think it is good that the BSW is campaigning against further arms deliveries to Ukraine. In Thuringia, the figure is as high as 60 percent.

In fact, this issue – in which state politics has practically no say – was decisive in the state elections almost only for BSW supporters.

BSW as an alternative to the AfD

In the run-up to the election, there was much discussion about whether the BSW would draw votes away from the AfD on a large scale. This seems to be the case to some extent. In the run-up to the election, a quarter of BSW supporters in Thuringia and even a third in Saxony said that if the BSW did not exist, they would currently vote for the AfD.

Ramelow saves the Left in Thuringia

If you look at the voter migration (which is calculated from polls on election day itself), it is actually clear that the BSW is the only party to which the AfD has lost votes on balance. However, the largest proportion of BSW voters are those who voted for the Left in 2019, from which the BSW split off a few months ago.

This was especially true for Thuringia, where a red-red-green minority government under the Left Party’s Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow had previously ruled. Incidentally, it is not his fault that the Left Party is suffering such massive losses. Rather, he is the reason that saved it from a similarly catastrophic result as in Saxony. Of those who voted for the Left Party in Thuringia this time, 60 percent said: Without Ramelow, they would not have done so.

Worry about not being able to maintain the standard of living

What the AfD and BSW have in common: Both benefit massively from fears and the current bad mood in the country. Both relied on this in the election campaign, and the AfD is also accused of deliberately stoking fears.

A large number of people in both federal states are currently worried that crime could increase, that too many foreigners will come, or that the influence of Islam could become too great.

And about half of those eligible to vote are worried about not being able to maintain their standard of living – and the trend is rising sharply. These concerns are particularly pronounced among voters of BSW and especially the AfD.

The same applies to the impression that living conditions in one’s own environment – including medical care – have worsened in recent years. Of the Green Party’s supporters in Saxony, for example, they say that only 14 percent, for the BSW it is 34, and for the AfD it is even 55. However, Green voters can also be found above all in large cities such as Leipzig or Dresden, where there is a large network of doctors and clinics are few and far between.

Traffic light dispute also massively disturbs traffic light supporters

And to what extent did the dispute within the traffic light coalition at the federal level influence the outcome in the two states? In Saxony, 56 percent say that the state election is a good opportunity to teach the federal government a lesson; in Thuringia, the figure is as high as 61 percent.

And the assessment of the work of the federal government can only be described as catastrophic: in both states, more than 80 percent of voters are dissatisfied with the work of the traffic light coalition. And even supporters of traffic light parties are mostly of the opinion that the federal government argues so much that almost nothing is moving forward in the country.

FDP at the level of a splinter party

The FDP is being punished in particular for this, as it has now shrunk to the level of a splinter party in Saxony and Thuringia and can therefore no longer be identified individually in surveys.

In comparison, the Greens and the SPD only suffered slight losses or were able to maintain their 2019 results. However, it must be said about all three traffic light parties: Compared to the federal government or other federal states, their results in Saxony and Thuringia were already extremely poor in 2019.

CDU strongly committed to preventing the AfD

And who has benefited from the weakness of the traffic light parties? Looking at the voter migration, it is primarily the CDU and BSW, and to a lesser extent the AfD.

The CDU – which sees itself confirmed by the result of the state elections – qualified strongly as supportive of those who do not want to accept that a right-wing extremist party is becoming so strong in their state. A little more than half of those who voted for the Christian Democrats in Saxony and Thuringia say in the surveys of infratest dimap: “I only vote for the CDU so that the AfD does not gain too much influence.”