Polls: AfD secures first victory in state elections

Germany’s far-right AfD won a historic victory in Thuringia’s state elections on Sunday, according to exit polls, dealing a significant setback for Chancellor Olaf Scholz ahead of the 2025 federal elections.

In Thuringia, the AfD received between 30.5 and 33.5 percent of the vote, while the conservative CDU came in second with around 24.5 percent.

In the neighboring state of Saxony, where state elections also took place on Sunday, the CDU was narrowly ahead, with the AfD following closely behind according to polls.

It is unlikely that the AfD will come to power in either state, as other parties have ruled out forming a government with the extreme right.

Nevertheless, the result is a political earthquake, as it would be the first time in post-war German history that a right-wing extremist party has won a state election.

If confirmed, this would also be a severe blow for Scholz’s Social Democrats and the other parties in his divided coalition government, the Greens and the liberal FDP.

The SPD achieved between 6.5 and 7 percent in Thuringia and between 7.5 and 8.5 percent in Saxony.

During the election campaign, the AfD had exploited dissatisfaction with the government, including anger over the migration issue and concerns about support for Ukraine.

Alice Weidel, co-chair of the AfD, described the result as a “historic success”. The party’s other co-chair, Tino Chrupalla, said, however, that the party had a “clear mandate to govern” in Thuringia.

“Historic result”

Chrupalla said that both federal states had sent a signal that “there should be political change” and that the AfD was “ready and willing to talk to all parties”.

However, CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann said on Sunday that voters knew “that we will not enter into coalitions with the AfD.”

Thuringia, one of Germany’s more rural states, was an early center of support for the Nazi Party, which came to power there in 1930 as part of a coalition government.

Björn Höcke, the controversial AfD chairman in the state, told ARD that his party was the “People’s Party of Thuringia”.

“We need change, and that will only happen with the AfD,” he said, praising the “historic result.”

Hoecke has often caused outrage with his blunt statements and was fined twice this year for deliberately using a banned Nazi slogan.

The exit polls also showed a good night for the BSW, a new party founded by the fiery politician Sahra Wagenknecht after she left the far-left party Die Linke.

According to the surveys, the BSW achieved between 14.5 and 16 percent in Thuringia and between 11.5 and 12 percent in Saxony.

Wagenknecht’s party appeals to voters in East Germany with a moderate stance towards Russia and calls for radical action against immigration.

The refusal of other parties to work with the AfD potentially makes the BSW the kingmaker in Thuringia and Saxony, despite serious political disagreements with potential partners, especially in Ukraine.

‘Alarming’

Scholz’s coalition partners, the Greens and the FDP, had a dismal night in both federal states and performed even worse than the SPD.

Marianne Kneuer, political science professor at the TU Dresden, described the election day polls as “alarming”.

“If you add up the votes of AfD and BSW, you get over 40 percent in Thuringia and Saxony. And that is frightening because it shows that the democratic parties in the center … have shrunk significantly,” she said.

The elections in Thuringia and Saxony take place less than a week after three people were killed in a suspected Islamist knife attack in the Westphalian city of Solingen, which sparked a bitter debate about immigration in Germany.

The suspected attacker, a 26-year-old Syrian with suspected links to the terrorist militia “Islamic State”, was to be deported, but was able to evade the authorities’ attempts to deport him.

The government tried to raise alarm bells by announcing stricter knife controls and illegal rules for migrants in Germany.

In Erfurt, the state capital of Thuringia, AfD supporter Patrick Teichmann said that in his opinion migrants were “taking advantage of our social system”.

The 32-year-old vegetable farmer, wearing a signed T-shirt from Björn Höcke, described his hero as “the only politician with sense these days”.

Elections will also be held in Brandenburg, a third former East German state, at the end of September. According to polls, the AfD is ahead there with around 24 percent.