Election debacle with warning for the traffic light coalition

Berlin (dpa) – It is a debacle that was announced. It was already pretty clear beforehand that the elections in Thuringia and Saxony would be one of the main slaps in the face for the traffic light coalition in Berlin. The only question was: how bad will it be?

The answer to the emerging results was: disastrous, but it could have been worse. The FDP was thrown out of the state parliament in Thuringia and is therefore not represented in either parliament. The Greens – previously the governing party in both states – also failed to clear the 5 percent hurdle in Thuringia and are worried about being re-elected to the state parliament in Saxony. The SPD is still left with the misery of not being represented in a state parliament for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic. In both states, however, their result is clear.

Never before have the parties that make up the federal government achieved such poor results together in state elections. The fact that the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition in Thuringia immediately performed better than the SPD, Greens and FDP combined and that the AfD is now almost three times as strong as the traffic light coalition says it all. The fact that the coalition partners pulled themselves together shortly before the elections and agreed on the consequences of the knife attack in Solingen in a surprisingly short time and without any public dispute did not help them.

On election night, the SPD headquarters in Berlin initially released the usual text blocks about the Berlin traffic light coalition’s share in the election defeat. “Yes, the constant dispute in the coalition is making people ‘tired’ and ‘weary’,” says party leader Saskia Esken. Yes, that must finally change. Yes, the traffic light coalition has often vowed to do that. “But now it really has to start.” Esken pauses after each word of this sentence to emphasize it.

It remains to be seen whether the traffic light coalition still has the strength to do so. The first acid test will likely be the implementation of the decisions on migration and security policy that the federal government presented last Thursday. The Union will try to push the government further on this issue and there could be resistance from the left wings of the Greens and the SPD. The budget also still has to go through the Bundestag.

But the next three weeks in particular will be a time when people will pull themselves together. That’s when the next election in East Germany will take place. And that is even more important for the SPD than the one in Thuringia and Saxony. The Social Democrats have been the prime ministers there since 1990. If Dietmar Woidke, who has been in power for eleven years, fails to be re-elected, discipline in the SPD could be over.

Then things could also get uncomfortable for Scholz, who announced before the summer break that he wanted to lead his party into the next federal election. All speculation about a Joe Biden scenario, according to which Scholz could back down for the clearly popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), has so far been brushed aside by the party leadership. “We want and will run with Olaf Scholz in the next federal election,” SPD leader Lars Klingbeil repeats like a mantra.

However, on election night, Esken made it clear that she expected Scholz to make the SPD’s positions in the government clearer. “Above all, he must make it clear that this coalition is an SPD-led government.” That must also be noticed.”

The debate about early elections due to the weakening traffic light coalition could flare up again in the coming days and weeks. However, the argument against such a step is that all traffic light parties would have to expect a collapse. Currently, they are between 29 and 34 percent in the nationwide polls, compared to 52 percent in the 2021 election.

In recent months, speculation about new elections has mainly been attributed to the FDP, which is likely to be able to form a coalition. However, the Liberals are now the least likely to be interested in an early federal election, given their nationwide poll ratings of 4 to 5 percent.

Green Party leader Omid Nouripour recently described the traffic light coalition as a “transitional government” – but it is almost unthinkable that he or his party would bring an abrupt end to this “transitional phase”. The Greens are too convinced of their role, which they see as crucial to the state. In the countries where elections are now being held, they are the only ones who have clearly distanced themselves from the BSW, which is questioning support for Ukraine, they stress. The coalition is leaving at a time when a second presidency for Donald Trump seems possible and Ukraine is still fighting? Hardly.

But on election Sunday, Nouripour made it clear once again how angry he is about the appearance of the traffic light coalition. “This unnecessary dispute in this coalition has harmed everyone.” And that is also part of the bill that we are now seeing.”

In the Union, today’s election Sunday is seen as the start of the final phase of the decision on the K question – which, according to the heads of the CDU and CSU, Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, should be made in late summer – probably after the state elections in Brandenburg on September 22nd.

Merz is generally considered to have the best chances in the Union. The CDU fears that the Bavarian Prime Minister could bet that Merz will falter in the coming weeks due to possible turbulence. It is an open secret that Söder still considers himself the best candidate for chancellor.

The CDU is expecting difficult negotiations – until after the Brandenburg election. It is quite possible that, despite clear announcements from the CDU headquarters in Berlin, there will be one or two who would like to chip away at the “firewall” to the AfD guaranteed by Merz.

Difficulties could also arise for Merz in connection with the BSW if the CDU cannot actually get past the BSW when forming a government. Merz initially rejected cooperation just as strictly as he did with the AfD. Wagenknecht is “right-wing extremist on some issues, left-wing extremist on others,” he said after the European elections in June. Merz only backed away from this dictum after protests from election campaigners in the east – and declared the question of cooperation to be a matter for the states.

The AfD is unlikely to have achieved a double victory in both federal states. In her initial reaction, party leader Alice Weidel nevertheless spoke of a “historic success” and a “requiem for this coalition” in Berlin.

The fact that it became the strongest force in a federal state in Thuringia for the first time since the party was founded in 2013 was seen by the AfD as the next important step on its intended path to greater influence throughout Germany, following its successes at the local level. As things stand, there are no options for power in the 2025 federal election, as others have ruled out cooperation with the party, which the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified as a suspected right-wing extremist case. However, the party’s sights are firmly set on the 2029 election year, said co-party leader Tino Chrupalla some time ago. The calculation: If the dissatisfaction among the population and at the same time the acceptance of the AfD are great enough by then, its hour could come at the federal level.

Wagenknecht and her BSW, on the other hand, want to get involved now – including in federal politics. If coalition negotiations take place, the newly founded party will also make demands that affect the federal government. The 55-year-olds have named an end to arms deliveries to Ukraine, more diplomatic initiatives by the federal government and a rejection of the stationing of US missiles in Germany as prerequisites for the BSW’s participation in the government in Thuringia.