Can only an AfD government prevent the party?

The 2024 state elections in Thuringia and Saxony are on Sunday – and it remains exciting. The kingmaker could still be the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition, which the parties will then no longer be able to ignore. But the AfD also gained ground, and in Saxony it could be a neck-and-neck race with the CDU. Manfred Güllner, head of the opinion research institute Forsa, gives an overview of possible government coalitions.

In his current analysis, Güllner refers to the latest survey results from the research group Wahlen. According to them, the political situation in the two neighboring states of Saxony and Thuringia continues to differ significantly. While in Saxony the current government could currently expect a narrow majority and the AfD is in second place, the AfD will probably be by far the strongest party in Thuringia.

Forming a coalition could therefore be tricky. None of the parties will come to power with the AfD, and the Blues have been rejecting coalitions for months. They will therefore have to make do with Sahra Wagenknecht’s coalition as a partner – whether they want to or not. The BSW can now hope for double-digit results in both eastern states.

Saxony: AfD could catch up, BSW double-digit

The latest poll figures confirm the trend. In Saxony, according to the research group Wahlen, the CDU would get 33 percent on Sunday and the AfD 30 percent. The BSW is at 12 percent. The Left Party would no longer be represented in the state parliament with 4 percent. Things could also get tricky for these two traffic light parties: According to the polls, the Greens and the SPD would each get 6 percent – if they fall below 5 percent on Sunday, they will be thrown out of the state parliament.

The following coalitions are currently possible: In Saxony, Güllner told the Berliner Zeitung, “in addition to the continuation of the government of the CDU, Greens and SPD, there is currently an equally narrow majority for an alliance of the CDU and BSW – at 45 percent.” It would also be enough for a coalition of the CDU and AfD. But the CDU has such an option. According to the latest polls, it would not be enough for a coalition of the AfD and BSW – both together would come to 42 percent. But such an alliance would not be possible with the BSW anyway.

Coalition Bingo: How many compromises does the CDU have to make?

Nervousness is growing in the Free State, especially in the CDU under Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer. If the SPD and the Greens fail to enter the state parliament – which is still possible – the CDU will hardly be able to avoid working with the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance.

The CDU is faced with a difficult decision, as it has little alternative to working with Wagenknecht’s party, and not only in this situation. For weeks, the party has been asking whether it should enter into a coalition with the BSW. Politically, however, the two parties are far apart, particularly on the Russia issue. In addition, Sahra Wagenknecht is already setting conditions for a possible coalition on this and other issues.

Things are looking just as exciting in Thuringia: According to surveys, the AfD will be the strongest party with 29 percent. The BSW is at 18 percent. According to the research group Wahlen, the CDU would currently have 23 percent. Things are not looking so good for the current red-red-green government, however: The Left, the strongest party five years ago with Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow at the helm, would only have 13 percent (minus 1) according to the research group Wahlen. The SPD could reach 6 percent (unchanged), while the Greens would currently miss out on a place in the state parliament with 4 percent (unchanged). In Thuringia, too, two of the traffic light parties are suffering a slap in the face.

Source: Research Group Elections, as of August 29, 2024Bank code

The talks about possible government formation, which are due to begin on Monday after the election, are also likely to be piquant: CDU top candidate Mario Voigt has so far declared that he wants to stick to the party line. It is unclear whether the federal party will give him free rein to be tolerated by the Left Party. Ramelow has at least indicated that he would be willing to help the CDU man into office.

Forsa boss Güllner: Things remain exciting in Thuringia

In order to form a government, 45 percent is needed in Thuringia. According to Güllner, “a coalition of the CDU, BSW and SPD would currently have a narrow majority.” According to the pollster, purely mathematically, it could also be a coalition of the AfD and CDU or the AfD with the BSW. A combination of the CDU, BSW and the Left would also be possible. According to the Forsa boss, a coalition of the CDU, SPD and the Left is not currently possible.

The Forsa boss concludes: “It remains exciting, we will see the result on Sunday.” For him, however, one thing is clear: Wagenknecht’s party “remains the kingmaker.” And the CDU will feel comfortable if it wants to govern, “having to come to terms with the Left Party or the BSW.”