Your kickoff on Thursday: Will Miami break the Revs’ points record?

The Crew defeats the Union

Columbus didn’t stumble after the Leagues Cup final, beating Philadelphia 1-0 thanks to a goal from Yaw Yeboah in the 75th minute.

LAFC and SKC reach the Open Cup final

The final of the 2024 US Open Cup has been decided: LAFC will host Sporting Kansas City on September 25. Sporting KC booked their ticket with a 2-0 win over Indy Eleven, while LAFC defeated Seattle Sounders FC 1-0 at the Starfire Sports Complex.

DC extends contract with Benteke

DC United has extended the contract with star striker Christian Benteke. Benteke’s new contract runs until 2025 with an option for 2026. The former star player of the English Premier League and Belgian international remains a Designated Player.

The race for the Supporters’ Shield is over, barring one of the most surprising collapses in MLS history. Inter Miami sits four points clear of its nearest rival. And even if teams like LAFC and Columbus win all their catch-up games, they’ll still be three and four points behind, respectively.

The others have to play perfectly from here on out. Inter Miami doesn’t have to. But they still could be. Aside from the odd random loss on an away trip, they don’t seem to be losing. Plus, the rest of their schedule is good. In their final eight games, they’ll only face three teams ranked higher than eighth in the East. Oh, and besides, Lionel Messi will be back at some point along the way. That’s done.

…Unless you look at the underlying numbers. They’ll tell you a different story. They’ll tell you that Inter Miami’s luck will run out any day now. There’s no getting around it. Inter Miami is, by statistical definition, the luckiest team in MLS history.

American Soccer Analysis uses a metric called “expected points.” It’s exactly what it sounds like. It takes the values ​​of the chances you created and allowed and tells you how many points a typical team can expect to score under the same circumstances. In their database, which goes back to 2013, the team that has exceeded their expected point total the most is the 2021 New England Revolution. You know, the team that won the Shield and broke the MLS points record thanks to Matt Turner’s all-time great goaltending performance, an MVP year from Carles Gil, a strong supporting cast in attack, and a whole lot of luck. Those Revs exceeded their expected point total by 19 points over the course of the season. Had they had average statistical luck, they would have finished fourth in the East with 53 points instead of setting an MLS record.

Inter Miami far surpasses the 2021 Revs.

So far, after 26 games, the Herons are outperforming their expected point total by 0.81 points per game. If they had achieved their expected point total, they would have 35 points. 35. They would be slightly better than Orlando City and in real danger of falling below the playoff line if the Lions and Toronto FC get going. Instead, they have 56 points and the Shield in one hand.

To put it more precisely, they are outscoring their expected goals per game by 0.76 per game. They have scored 58 goals, a league record. They have created chances worth 38 expected goals.

Defensively, they have allowed 37 non-penalty goals and allowed 41 chances worth of expected goals. That’s not as extreme as their goal difference, but still the fifth highest in the league.

It’s also a little easier to explain. It only takes two statements: 1.) Drake Callender was a really good goalkeeper and 2.) they got lucky. Callender is seventh in MLS in goal defense this year and has saved about two more goals than the average goalie. We can chalk up the rest to “sometimes the ball goes in.”

The offensive side requires a little more work to flesh out, but even that requires two statements: 1.) Luis Suárez and Lionel Messi exist, and 2.) they got lucky. It probably won’t surprise you that Suárez ranks first among starters in MLS in terms of xG overproduction per game. And it might surprise you that Messi ranks third, because you probably would have expected him to be first or second. All told, they’ve scored about nine more goals than their combined personal xG tally.

That’s relatively typical of them, though. Especially Messi. There’s basically been one player in the world who has consistently significantly exceeded his underlying numbers throughout his career, and he wears the number 10 at Inter Miami. If he’s done that so well for so long, we can assume Messi is significantly better at finishing than the average soccer player.

Shocking, I know. However, according to FBref data, Suarez is currently outperforming his xG by the largest margin over that period since 2017. And even if Suárez gets a little luckier than usual and Messi shows a trait that made him the best player in history, there are still about 11 extra goals at stake.

Those 11 goals come from more surprising places. According to FBref, Matías Rojas, Jordi Alba, Diego Gómez, Ian Fray, Leo Afonso, Robert Taylor and Federico Redondo all exceed their xG by at least one goal. Rojas and Alba by more than two. Don’t get me wrong, these are all great players, but they aren’t the kind of finishers that Messi and Suárez are. That’s pretty lucky. If you take Messi and Suarez out of the equation, Inter Miami would still have the best offense in MLS with 11 goals overperformance.

So what does that mean? Well, maybe we’ve already seen what it means. They haven’t had the same luck against the region’s best teams in tournament play. They were knocked out by Monterrey in the Concacaf Champions Cup. They were knocked out by Columbus in the Leagues Cup. Will they fail again in the MLS Cup playoffs?

I have no idea. But there is good news either way. They are not going to take away the Shield just because Miami got lucky once or twice. And they may not need luck if Messi is fully healthy again.