New York mayor’s prediction of ‘migrant crime wave’ never happened: report

New York appears to have escaped the grim fate predicted by Mayor Eric Adams when the first wave of migrants arrived by busload last fall.

In September 2023, Mr. Adams warned that a “wave of migrant crime” would sweep across the city and called for massive budget cuts to raise the $12 billion the city would need for housing, health care and schooling, according to a recent report in the Atlantic.

To raise the money, his administration cut programs to get money immediately. The police academy was hit hardest, causing classes to be canceled and the number of new recruits to drop over the next two years. He also cut funding for preschools, reduced services such as public library hours, and forced the FDNY to reduce the number of firefighters in its vehicles.

“To balance the budget as required by law, each city agency has reached into its own budget to find savings, with minimal disruption to services,” Adams said in a statement in November 2023. “And while we managed to do it this time, don’t worry: migrant costs are rising, tax revenue growth is slowing, and COVID stimulus funds are drying up.”

But nearly a year later, Adams’ predictions proved wrong. The city of New York was in good shape in February 2024, with a nearly $3 billion surplus in its coffers—partly because tax revenues exceeded expectations and because caring for migrants cost less than originally projected. Adams eventually reversed the cuts he proposed, and the wave of migrant crime he had warned the city about never peaked.

Although New York has avoided the chaos its mayor predicted over a year ago, the city still has to deal with the staggering number of 65,000 migrants in its reception system, and the mayor continues to push for more funding. In June, Mr. Adams declared that the city would no longer rely on “emergency shelters” but would instead launch a competitive bidding process for vendors to run shelters, migrant hotels and other services.

Continued spending on caring for migrants will almost certainly lead to an increase in spending that could shrink the city’s surplus.

Projections by the city’s Independent Budget Office predict another surplus of over $3 billion for the 2025 fiscal year. However, budget shortfalls are expected to grow to $5.6 billion to $6.5 billion over the next three years.