Despite pressure from the government, Russia plays a major role in the debate about Kazakh nuclear power

ALMATY, Kazakhstan – The world’s largest uranium producer has taken another step closer to building a nuclear power plant.

Last week, the last of 20 nationwide public hearings took place in the Kazakh capital Astana, before a national referendum on the start of nuclear power production is scheduled to take place in the autumn.

The format differed little from the discussions in other cities.

The official presentations only focused on the supposed advantages of nuclear power, and anyone who wanted to ask questions was only allowed two minutes to speak.

After this time, the microphone was turned off and those who continued to speak were escorted away.

Some critics didn’t even make it to the venue.

Anti-nuclear activist Meiirkhan Abdimanapov was fined 129,000 tenge ($270) after being arrested in Almaty on August 19 before traveling to Astana.

The official reason for his detention was his participation in an unauthorized rally six months earlier.

However, he argued that the real reason was to prevent him from repeating his appearance at the public hearing in Kazakhstan’s largest city on August 16, when he condemned the exercise as “advertising for a nuclear power plant.”

Then came the confrontation, which journalists from RFE/RL’s Kazakh service observed at the Radisson Hotel in Astana, where the hearing took place on August 20.

“What did you mean by saying that one can speak freely while at the same time not letting anyone in?” complained activist Nagizhan Toleubaev as guards tried to prevent him from entering the event’s main hall.

“Didn’t the President himself want the issue to be discussed publicly? How do you explain your actions?”

Despite these apparent attempts to control the number of participants, the hearings, which began last year on the shores of Lake Balkhash – near the likely site of the planned nuclear facility – nevertheless featured numerous emotional speeches.

Toleubayev, who was finally allowed to take part in the question-and-answer session, warned the authorities that “future generations will condemn you” if the nuclear power plant is built. He was then dragged away from the microphone by well-built men standing nearby.

And the resistance is sure to only grow louder as the referendum approaches, for which nuclear-friendly President Kasym-Zhomart Toqaev has not yet set a date.

But why is his government taking this controversial path?

One reason for this is certainly an apparently growing energy deficit. Another reason, however, could be the pressure from the overwhelmingly powerful ally Russia, which many see as a sure candidate for the construction of the power plant.

Rosatom: First among equals?

As government experts argued at public hearings, nuclear power is a cleaner form of electricity generation than the coal-fired and often outdated thermal power plants on which most Kazakh cities still rely.

However, this concept is also more controversial, and not only because of new fears about nuclear power in general following the accident at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011.

During the Soviet Union, nuclear tests were carried out regularly in northeastern Kazakhstan under Moscow’s direction for four decades.

The consequences of these tests for people and the environment are still visible today.

Another cause for concern, highlighted by at least one speaker at the Astana event, is the danger a nuclear power plant poses in the event of a possible conflict.

As part of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces surrounded and occupied the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant – the largest in Europe – in eastern Ukraine at the beginning of the war.

In this sense, the territorial threats that Russian politicians and experts regularly made against Kazakhstan after Astana did not support Moscow’s invasion did not exactly help make the idea of ​​a Russian-built nuclear facility attractive.

“A country whose military illegally occupies the nuclear facilities of another sovereign state and creates unprecedented nuclear risks cannot be considered a reliable partner in the nuclear field,” nuclear policy expert Togzhan Kassenova told RFE/RL.

This, and the complications that Western sanctions against Russia could pose for a Russian-led nuclear project in Kazakhstan, means that nuclear energy giant Rosatom “should not be considered for political and practical reasons,” argues Kassenova, author of the book “Nuclear Steppe: How Kazakhstan Gave Up the Bomb.”

However, the government has indicated otherwise.

In 2023 – before Toqaev announced a referendum on building a nuclear power plant – Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said Rosatom was one of four contractors whose reactors were being considered for the plant. The other three were French utility EDF, China National Nuclear Corporation and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power of South Korea.

In the past, the Kazakh authorities had expressed the promising idea of ​​an international consortium building the potential power plant.

But those skeptical that Russian leadership in this project is not inevitable need not look far.

In neighboring Uzbekistan, then-Energy Minister Zhurabek Mirzamahmudov said in November that Uzbek authorities were examining the “experience and technology” of other countries, not just Russia, with which Uzbekistan had already held talks about building a nuclear power plant.

But Tashkent and Moscow subsequently agreed on a Russian-built small nuclear power plant (SMR) when Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Central Asian country for talks in May.

In Kazakhstan, Moscow and Astana are already cooperating in the nuclear field in higher education.

Among the young pro-nuclear supporters in Astana last week was a group of students and graduates from the Almaty branch of the National Research Nuclear University (NRNU).

The NRNU opened a branch on the grounds of Kazakhstan’s Al-Farabi National University in 2022 – more than a year before Toqaev said the nuclear power plant plan would be put to a national vote.

“A test of patriotism”

Despite visible opposition, hardly anyone doubts that the referendum in Kazakhstan will result in a “yes”.

The campaign for nuclear power is supported with state funds.

Meanwhile, critics complain that city councils have repeatedly refused to grant them permission to hold protests against the planned power plant.

Nevertheless, for many citizens there are some convincing arguments in favor of nuclear power.

In Ulken, where the first public hearing on the project took place in August 2023, some residents expressed enthusiasm about the power plant’s ability to create local jobs in a crisis-ridden region – even as Balkhash fishermen expressed concern about the future of their industry.

At the national level, and especially in the provinces, power outages are becoming an increasingly serious problem. High consumption in the densely populated south of the country is placing a heavy burden on the national power grid.

Last year, Kazakh state-owned energy company Samruk Energy predicted that the national electricity deficit could double to three gigawatts by 2029.

The future nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan is expected to have a much larger capacity than the 330-megawatt version currently being built in Uzbekistan – a scaled-down version of the plant that Tashkent originally wanted to build.

At an anti-nuclear rally in Almaty in September, speakers acknowledged that villagers who regularly suffer from power outages could easily be convinced of the benefits of nuclear power.

What the government has failed to do is to show the population practical and clean alternatives to power plants, such as expanding the production of wind and solar energy.

On August 27, the referendum moved a step closer when Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliev presented a proposal for a presidential decree to hold a nationwide vote at a government meeting, which was unanimously approved.

Toqaev had previously promised that the referendum would take place in the autumn and is expected to announce a date shortly.

Satkaliev blamed “independent bloggers” and the media for stoking criticism of the nuclear plans. He said a Kazakh citizen’s attitude to nuclear power was a “test” of “intellect…patriotism…decency” and opponents had evidently failed on all three counts.

Nuclear power is needed for “the next frontier, for the development of the economy and science, so that the country can reach a new level of civilizational development,” Satkaliev added.