USDA predicts record yields for corn and soybeans

By RHIANNON BRANCH

FarmWeek

BLOOMINGTON – Record-high crop estimates for corn and soybeans headlined the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August crop report.

The agency forecast a statewide average corn yield of 183.1 bushels per acre (bpa), 5.8 more than in 2023, and a statewide average soybean yield of 53.2 bpa, 2.6 more than last season.

Illinois state average yield estimates are also at record highs of 225 bpa for corn and 66 bpa for soybeans.

“Obviously, when you first saw it, the market seemed a little unsettled because the corn yield was 183. That’s a pretty high yield,” Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net told FarmWeek. “But then you see that the acreage has been reduced.”

Early data from the Farm Service Agency resulted in acreage adjustments, unusual for the August report. The USDA now estimates corn planted acreage at 90.7 million acres (up from 91.5 million in July) and harvested acreage at 82.7 million acres (up from 83.4 million last month).

The area adjustments show that the USDA understands crop concerns in some growing areas, Bennett noted.

“This corridor in southeastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa is certainly going to have some problems growing crops. They’re going to lose some crops, just because of a lot of flooding and water buildup,” he said.

The acreage adjustment actually reduced corn ending stocks from the previous month to 2.07 billion bushels. U.S. corn production is now estimated at 15.1 billion bushels, down 1% from last year.

“So it’s a bit of a surprise that overall production is declining somewhat despite the enormous corn yields.”

Soybeans are a different story. Production is now at a record 4.59 billion bushels, up 10%. Soybean acreage is estimated at 87.1 million acres, up from 86.1 million in July. Harvest acreage is estimated at 86.3 million acres, up from 85.3 million last month.

“Ending stocks for 2024-2025 were 560 million bushels, so that’s a big difference and looks pretty ample,” Bennett said. “It’s a little puzzling that the USDA is factoring in such high export demand because we have some of the smallest new crop orders we’ve had in many years. So we certainly have to hope that the USDA sees something that we’re not seeing right now.”

Immediately after the report was released on August 12, the corn market was down, but then jumped back up a few cents, while soybeans closed more than 20 cents lower due to the high carryout number.

“The general feeling here is that despite these huge yields, the corn situation may not be as bad as everyone thought because the acreage has shrunk and demand is so strong,” Bennett said.

It is important to note that upcoming field visits and on-site data collection by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will provide a more accurate picture of crop conditions and that some combines may even already be in operation by the time the next crop yield report is released.

“So as we get closer to September, we have to understand that a big crop often gets even bigger when you have a better handle on the crop,” the analyst added. “And when that happens, they can certainly put pressure on the market in a situation where those markets are obviously already pretty depressed.”

(This article was distributed as part of a cooperative project between the Illinois Farm Bureau and the Illinois Press Association. For more food and agriculture news, visit FarmWeekNow.com.)