Fantasy Football Rankings 2024: NFL surprise picks, breakouts and flops from the model that predicted Deebo Samuels’ bad year

Fantasy football managers sift through a variety of statistics before embarking on the 2024 fantasy football series, but the 2024 fantasy football ADP is the most important metric. Finding players with the right ADP can make the difference between dark horse and flop players for 2024 fantasy football. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is considered one of the NFL’s best signal-callers, but his fantasy potential has been limited by his lack of running potential. He likely needs a career-best passing season to exceed expectations, so where does he land in the 2024 fantasy football rankings? Quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson all offer more running potential than Burrow. However, Allen and Hurts are taken off the board early in fantasy drafts, so developing a successful fantasy football strategy is all about selecting them with optimal 2024 fantasy football picks.

With the reliable 2024 Fantasy Football rankings, you can gain valuable insight into your upcoming drafts and identify potential dark horses, breakout players and flop players. Before you set your 2024 Fantasy Football Draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2024 Fantasy Football rankings and cheat sheets from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

Last year, the model correctly predicted that Buccaneers running back Rachaad White was dramatically undervalued. White was taken in the seventh round on average in 12-team PPR leagues, but proved to be Tampa Bay’s ball carrier and brought significantly more value than expected, coming in at No. 4 at his position. White rushed for 990 yards and six touchdowns, while as a receiver he made 64 catches for 549 yards and three more scores. Everyone who followed the model’s advice scored a starting running back every week in the middle rounds.

The same model has proven itself to be effective in providing fantasy football picks. It identified AJ Brown as a surprise pick in 2020 and predicted Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous 2021 season. Additionally, it has predicted previous fantasy football surprise picks like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. Anyone who has bet on players like these has had a good run at their championship titles.

The model is developed by the same people who create the projections for all three major fantasy sites, and it beat the human experts last season when there was a huge difference in the rankings. The Fantasy Football 2024 PPR rankings and standard Fantasy Football 2024 projections are updated multiple times a day, so you’ll always get the best fantasy football picks.

Now SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest fantasy football rankings for 2024, along with plenty of surprise candidates, breakouts and flops. Head to SportsLine now to see them.

The best insider tips for Fantasy Football 2024

One of the 2024 Fantasy Football insider tips predicted by the model: Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman. Pittman finished last season with 109 receptions and 1,110 receiving yards. He was targeted 156 times and his 30% target share placed him among the league’s leaders.

Pittman has posted over 1,000 receiving yards in two of his last three seasons, proving he’s a reliable option at wide receiver for fantasy owners. He’s expected to be the clear No. 1 receiver in Indianapolis in 2024, but owners are undervaluing him this year despite his consistent production. SportsLine’s model ranks Pittman, who is drafted in the eighth round on average, ahead of receivers like DJ Moore, George Pickens and Jaylen Waddle, who are all drafted ahead of him. Find more 2024 fantasy football sleepers here.

The best fantasy football outliers of 2024

One of the 2024 fantasy football breakout players the model predicts: Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers. The No. 6 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is coming off two consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to end his career at LSU. In three years with the Tigers, Nabers caught 189 passes for 3,003 yards and 21 touchdowns.

He backed up that performance by running the 40-yard dash in 4.35 seconds and reaching 42 inches in the high jump at LSU’s Pro Day. There are some potential target quality issues with Daniel Jones at quarterback, but the model still projects Nabers to join a long line of great LSU receivers. It ranks Nabers as its WR31, ahead of veterans like Chris Godwin and DeAndre Hopkins. For more 2024 fantasy football breakthroughs, click here.

The biggest failures in Fantasy Football 2024

As for players to avoid, the model lists 49ers tight end George Kittle as one of its 2024 fantasy football misses. Kittle had 65 catches for 1,020 yards and six touchdowns last season, finishing as the TE5 in fantasy. However, he plays in a crowded San Francisco offense where Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk all take away Kittle’s targets.

Last year he was the best tight end in receiving yards, but his fantasy ceiling was limited by competition from his teammates. Kittle will need to maintain a high level of efficiency to reach his fantasy ADP, and that’s not something his fantasy owners will want to rely on. According to the SportsLine model, Kittle is behind tight ends like Evan Engram, David Njoku and Dalton Kincaid, all of whom are available later in most fantasy drafts. Find more 2024 fantasy football flops here

How to find proven fantasy football rankings for 2024

SportsLine is also extremely excited about a surprise quarterback you wouldn’t even think would be selected in the middle rounds of the 2024 fantasy football draft. This quarterback is listed as a surprise top-10 option ahead of stars like Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers. You can see who it is and the 2023 fantasy football rankings for each player only at SportsLine.

So which surprises, outliers and flops should you target and ignore in 2024 fantasy football, and which quarterback will surprise the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024 fantasy football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that Deebo Samuel exposed as a flop last year, and find out.