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topicnews · August 27, 2024

Bowl win? Record-breaking QB? Bold predictions for IU football in 2024

Bowl win? Record-breaking QB? Bold predictions for IU football in 2024

BLOOMINGTON – My bold predictions for Indiana football in 2023 were terrible.

It’s that simple.

Here’s a quick refresher: I predicted Indiana would have a 1,000-yard receiver (no), Jaylin Lucas would set multiple program records (big no), IU would have multiple players taken in the draft (again, no), and Nicolas Radicic would be the program’s most impactful true freshman (no, but he did kick a 21-yard field goal).

The one I got right the most was the first one.

More: 8 takeaways from Indiana football’s 2024 fall camp

I’ve focused mostly on Cam Camper and EJ Williams with their breakout potential, but Donaven McCulley was the receiver who took over as the main player on offense. He finished the 2023 season with an 84-yard average in the team’s final five games, and that pace would have put him over 1,000 yards over the course of an entire year.

He might have reached this milestone if IU hadn’t made the trip to Jerusalem at the quarterback position in the first half of the year.

Although Lucas set a program record with his third career kickoff return, and the 161 kickoff return yards he posted against Purdue rank among the top five players of all time, he struggled in his brief stint as a punt returner and barely touched the ball on offense in the final quarter.

Can I do better this year? Probably? I can’t really do any worse.

Indiana will have two 1,000-yard receivers this season

I’m going to double my bet here.

Indiana has a returning 1,000-yard receiver in Elijah Sarratt, who accomplished the feat last year for JMU, and McCulley was probably the best receiver in the Big Ten down the stretch. His performance against Illinois — the secondary was penalized five times in coverage against him — was incredible.

The way McCulley has responded to Cignetti’s tough attitude is also encouraging. The coach has a long history of molding top college receivers since his days at Alabama and wants his newest pupil to reach that level.

I think Cignetti’s focus on strengthening IU’s skill positions will increase their productivity. It will be difficult for the defense to focus on double coverage of Sarratt or McCulley since there are so many capable pass catchers (Myles Price and Zach Horton, to name two) and an improved running game.

More: 8 takeaways from Indiana football’s 2024 fall camp

Kurtis Rourke has the most productive season as a quarterback in Indiana football ever

That’s not the highest hurdle, as IU has only had four quarterbacks throw for over 3,000 yards in program history and never had a quarterback throw for more than 30 touchdowns. Former Indiana quarterback Nate Suffield threw for the most passing yards in program history in 2015 (3,573) and Kellen Lewis set the passing touchdown record (28) in 2007.

In 2022, Rourke nearly accomplished both when he was named MAC Offensive Player of the Year with 3,257 yards (69.1%) and 25 passing touchdowns.

While Rourke continues to improve in competition, Cignetti’s recent history shows that he knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks.

He had four different starting quarterbacks at James Madison from 2019-23 (not including the COVID spring season), and the group averaged 3,394 yards (68.0%) and 33 touchdowns. Former JMU quarterback Cole Johnson set program records in passing yards (3,779), touchdowns (41) and completions (287) in 2021.

Rourke’s physique, accuracy and arm strength, as well as his long track record, should help him succeed in Bloomington.

He will also benefit from three easy non-conference games that will help him build his stats a bit and allow him to battle tough opponents like Ohio State and Michigan later in the season while still putting up eye-popping stats.

Indiana Football wins its first bowl game in more than three decades

I don’t think it’s too bold a prediction that Indiana will reach six wins. The Hoosiers should easily win their non-conference games and be halfway to qualifying for the postseason. The conference schedule is also much easier than it has been in recent years, although Ohio State and Michigan are still in the mix.

Indiana reached a bowl game twice under Tom Allen, but lost one-possession games in the 2020 Gator Bowl against Tennessee and the 2021 Outback Bowl against Ole Miss.

I think what would give the Hoosiers an advantage in any potential bowl game is that they have a roster that would be motivated to actually play in the game. That’s not as common these days and all the JMU players Cignetti brought in obviously want to help him succeed.

What would be a better parting gift for the coach than a bowl win in his first season?

Michael Niziolek is the Indiana reporter for the Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X. @michaelniziolek and read his full report by clicking here..

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