The facade of discipline in the Trump campaign is crumbling rapidly

Just a few months ago, former President Donald Trump was riding high, leading in the polls against President Joe Biden and his campaign being hailed as the smartest and most disciplined of his three runs for the White House. But as Election Day approaches, things seem to be returning to the historical norm: Trump is lashing out and his top advisers are beginning to voice their concerns in the press.

The turmoil surrounding the former president makes me think of a famous psychological experiment that tested children’s ability to delay masturbation. Researchers placed a marshmallow on the table in front of each child and said they could eat the candy now, but if they waited until later, they could have two marshmallows. As a scientific indicator of future success, the “marshmallow experiment” has come under increasing scrutiny. But as a metaphor, it perfectly sums up the root cause of Trump’s runaway campaign.

When Trump officially declared his candidacy in November 2022, there was still a slim chance he wouldn’t be able to regain the Republican nomination. His attacks on democracy after the 2020 election had been laid bare in the House of Representatives, and the candidates he supported had underperformed in the most competitive midterm elections. But after two presidential campaigns marked by chaos and infighting, this time Trump handed the keys to two professionals who made sure the ship ran smoothly.

The first of the two to be hired was Susie Wiles, a former aide to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who also ran Trump’s Florida operations in 2016 and 2020. She took over Trump’s post-presidency political operations from Mar-a-Lago in early 2021 before becoming co-campaign manager. A NBC News profile this year highlighted Wiles’ role in getting Trump to this point:

Working alongside Wiles is Chris LaCivita. Before this year, the veteran Republican operative was best known for co-organizing the 2004 Swift Boat Veterans for Truth campaign, which helped smear Senator John Kerry (D-Massachusetts) as not patriotic enough to run for president. Together, the two not only managed to exact revenge on Wiles’ former boss, DeSantis, who was once Trump’s biggest rival, but also turned what should have been a crucial reckoning for Republicans into a blitzkrieg primary that made Trump the undisputed nominee. When Trump took the nomination, much of the media coverage focused on his campaign’s apparent newfound discipline, with Wiles and LaCivita getting plenty of credit for that shift.

But that was the campaign—the candidate was a different story entirely. Trump remains an unpredictable individual. He continues to vent in speeches and on Truth Social about everything from his numerous lawsuits, both civil and criminal, to the ever-growing list of ways he is trying to personally capitalize on his candidacy. But as long as Trump was ahead in the polls, there was peace within the Trump establishment.

In fact, Trump was arguably most disciplined after his June debate against Biden. During the three and a half weeks that Biden tried to fend off concerns about his electability, Trump remained (largely) silent. Rather than draw attention to himself, he was content, for once, to let someone else take the spotlight as members of Biden’s party called for him to drop out.

The climax came at the Republican National Convention in early July, when the story of Trump’s election seemed inevitable. But even then, Trump loosened the shackles: He chose a MAGA sycophant as his running mate and wasted his nomination speech by repeatedly veering off topic. Then Biden dropped out and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor – a massive reversal that stumbled Trump and prevented him from getting back on his feet. Since then, the facade of discipline has been crumbling at an ever-increasing pace.

Trump’s performance against Harris in this month’s debate, and the coverage of it, left him so rattled that he himself stomped into the spin room, apparently thinking his surrogates were failing. He has reportedly become angry, both at the amount of credit Wiles and LaCivita have received for his campaign’s successes and at their decision to debate Biden so early that it knocked the president out of the race. There is some truth to that, because a campaign specifically designed to beat Biden failed against Harris, not least because the candidate was unable to sustain a single message against her.

Trump has brought disgraced former adviser Corey Lewandowski back into the fold, limiting effectiveness but giving Trump the battle for the approval of his subordinates that he so craves. As the Washington Post reported Friday, even the most basic campaign functions have become points of contention in this new anomaly, with decisions on whether or not to send mail to voters taking weeks. While Wiles and LaCivita don’t appear to be in danger of being fired, they seem to have given up on even pretending to influence Trump’s decisions. Instead, they are just trying to keep the focus on the Harris campaign rather than the internal drama.

It was a remarkable transformation, but one that almost presaged Trump’s record. Trump has received plenty of outside advice on how to stay the course and focus on Harris’s weaknesses with voters. He hasn’t listened to any of it. Instead, he has returned to his old habits: picking fights with celebrities, spreading racist conspiracy theories, hanging out with far-right influencers, and egging on his electorate in the hope of repeating his 2016 victory. This hardly convinces skeptics who are considering giving Harris a chance, but it gives Trump the short-term satisfaction he has never been able to resist for too long. Even with the White House on the line, the marshmallow in front of him proved too tempting compared to the promise of two elections later.

This article was originally published on MSNBC.com.