Prediction, odds and key players for Dream vs. Liberty in the second WNBA playoff game

The New York Liberty started the playoffs strong on Sunday, defeating the Atlanta Dream by 14 points in the first game of their first round.

Despite only covering the spread five times at home during the regular season, the Liberty managed to do so in Game 1, using 20 points from Breanna Stewart and 21 points from Leonie Fiebich (who hit 7 of 8 field goals) to earn the win.

Atlanta faces a tough battle ahead of Game 2, as the team must win two games in a row against the Liberty to advance to the next round.

New York only lost eight games in the regular season, so it will be no easy task for the 8th-seeded Dream team to defend their title.

The bookmakers agree and predict 12.5 points for the Liberty in the second consecutive game in this series.

Here’s a breakdown of the latest odds, players to watch, and my prediction for Game 2 of the Dream Liberty Series.

Opportunities via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Money line

In total

Dream Injury Report

Liberty Injury Report

Atlanta Dream

Allisha Gray: Gray, one of Atlanta’s best players and shooters, struggled in Game 1, scoring just nine points on 3-of-9 shooting from the field (0-of-3 from beyond the three-point line). With only Rhyne Howard and Tina Charles scoring in double figures in Game 1, Gray will have to give the Dream more if they want to pull off an upset. During the regular season, Gray averaged 15.6 points per game and shot 40.3 percent from the field.

New York Freedom

Leonie Fiebich: Fiebich, 24, is a rookie this season and started 15 regular-season games before making her first playoff appearance on Sunday. She impressed, hitting 7-of-8 field shots (4-of-4 threes) for 21 points. Fiebich averaged just 6.7 points per game during the regular season, so her point total on Sunday was a huge increase.

The Liberty were able to cover the spread for only the sixth time this season in their first home game, but I’m not convinced that will happen in their second game.

While I expect the No. 1 seed to finish this three-game series on Tuesday, I’m more interested in the under.

This season (including playoffs and WNBA Commissioner’s Cup), New York has hit the under in 23 of its 42 games, and the Dream have been an even better under team, hitting the under in 24 of their 41 meetings.

Game 1 of this series ended with a total of 152 points, and there are a few lessons learned from Sunday’s playoff games as a whole that we can apply in some ways to Game 2 this week.

Three away teams failed to break the 70-point mark, and only one game scored more than 162 points (Minnesota vs. Phoenix).

As for Liberty and Dream, both teams are playing at a pretty slow pace this season (Atlanta is 11th, New York is 7th) and the Dream have not been good shooters, ranking last in the league in effective field goal percentage.

Instead of betting on a clear win for New York, I prefer to bet on the “under” between two teams that rank in the top half of the league in defensive rating.

Selection: UNDER 156.5 (-112)

The odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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