Fantasy Football NFL Week 3 Lineup Decisions: Chiefs Backfield, Panthers Offense, Justin Fields

Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, level-headed voice of reason to remind them what makes sense.

Take a deep breath. It’s fantasy football. Make practical decisions about lineups, transfers, and tailgating party food, and you’ll be fine. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn’t believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you’re (presumably) a fantasy manager. OK, maybe you would.

Don’t assume anything about the Chiefs’ RB situation

Andy Reid has won 71% of his regular season games in 12 years as the Chiefs’ head coach, and of course he has three Super Bowl rings. Reid knows what he’s doing, and by the end of the weekend, we should all knows what he’s doing with his running backs now that starter Isiah Pacheco is likely out until November with a broken right fibula (and subsequent surgery).

Three Chiefs are among the top five running backs on the Most Wanted list this week. Relatively unknown rookie Carson Steele is a hot name because he’s new and has never failed at the NFL level. Fantasy managers love players like that, even if they offer little guarantee of success. And then there’s veteran Kareem Hunt, who was once great but didn’t look so good in Cleveland last season, averaging 3.0 yards per carry and barely catching passes.

My pick is Samaje Perine. Perine is proven and fits Kansas City’s style, as Jerick McKinnon did in 2022. Only 14 running backs caught 50 passes last season. Some of the biggest names did that. Surprise, Perine did it for the Broncos! Reid can trust him, and I bet we’ll see Patrick Mahomes throw a lot more on traditional running downs, with safer, shorter passes to Perine, forgotten TE Travis Kelce (who will get his numbers this week), and others.

We shouldn’t assume that Steele, who went undrafted after one season at UCLA and two at Ball State, controls the volume and most of the value in this backfield. That seems a bit over the top for a coach who has been here before and shared the wealth. Steele is built more like a fullback or lead blocker, which is fine, but he’s caught just 58 passes in 37 college games and last week against the Bengals he lost a fumble. OK, Pacheco has lost fumbles too, but it’s hard to imagine anyone handling Pacheco’s high volume.

In fact, it was something of an anomaly that Pacheco handled such a large workload. In Reid’s 11 completed seasons in KC, two players have rushed for more than 1,000 yards. Hunt did it in 2017 and Jamaal Charles in Reid’s first two seasons. Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West have since had seasons where they led the Chiefs in the running game. Darrel Williams did it in 2021, ahead of Pacheco, with 558 yards. I think Perine is the Chiefs running back to add. He caught passes last season. He will do so again. But I can’t activate him – or any other Chiefs RB – this week against the Falcons because anything is possible.

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Why Field Yates recommends avoiding the Chiefs backfield

Field Yates and Mike Clay will be in the Chiefs’ backfield because Isiah Pacheco is on the injured list.

Expect an improvement in the Panthers’ offense

Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard and WRs Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen had little chance of success with overmatched second-year quarterback Bryce Young running the offense. Veteran Andy Dalton is at least competent, and in this case, competence is everything. Dalton may not look like Raiders backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, but for fantasy and stats purposes, something similar is to be expected. It’s a shame, because Young has talent, but for whatever reason – and there are many – it just doesn’t work.

The Panthers have enough talent to compete. They may not win more than a few games, but Dalton can throw the football quickly and reasonably accurately to his receivers. That helps them; it helps the competent Hubbard. You don’t put Dalton in ESPN standard leagues — well, you shouldn’t — but you shouldn’t throw out other Panthers either… and you do.

Johnson and Thielen are capable veterans who just need someone to find them when they’re free. Dalton can do that. He certainly played well enough for the Saints in 2022, when he was nearly a top-20 fantasy QB in his 14 starts. RB Alvin Kamara was a solid RB2 this season. Rookie Chris Olave caught 72 passes for 1,042 receiving yards. Serviceable tight end Juwan Johnson scored seven touchdowns. Speedy Rashid Shaheed averaged 17.4 yards per catch (and look at him now). Dalton may not be a top-20 fantasy QB for the rest of the season, but he gives his receivers a chance to succeed.

The most surprising name on the Panthers’ roster is rookie RB Jonathon Brooks. When they drafted him, they knew he would miss at least four games, as the Panthers made it clear there was no reason to bring the first running back selected in the draft back after major knee surgery. After all, he tore his right ACL last November. Be patient. OK, so you need your IR slot for others you drafted earlier. I get it, but Brooks could return sooner. He may not be a statistical superstar right away, but he should be important in a few weeks.

Don’t expect Justin Fields to save your fantasy team

Saints surprise Derek Carr and underrated Buccaneer Baker Mayfield are the only quarterbacks signed in more ESPN standard leagues than temporary Steelers starter Justin Fields. Signing the potentially dynamic Fields once made sense as he rushed for a record 1,143 yards for the Bears in 2022, and I wrote over the summer that fantasy managers would be better off if Fields got the job. He can do things few quarterbacks – and certainly not Russell Wilson anymore – can do. He has QB1 potential. He’s already done it!

The problem is, it’s become clear he’s not going to do those fun running drills for the current Steelers. Coach Mike Tomlin is a smart guy. He knows he’s got the defense, the depth, the running backs, he’s got a plan. That plan includes Fields running the offense and avoiding turnovers. So far, Fields has two wins and not a single turnover, which is good for a high passer rating. For fantasy managers, though, he’s contributed little, with just 11 points in each game. The Steelers don’t want to take chances. We do that in fantasy, but we should add Sam Darnold or Geno Smith instead. At least their teams are letting them do good things, and they’re doing good things.

Fields started 38 games for the Bears, threw 30 interceptions and lost 11 fumbles (he or his team recovered 27 more). That’s a lot, he hasn’t really changed and it seems likely that Fields will eventually work his way to the bench when Wilson (Wade) is healthy enough again. So be wary in superflex formats where every starting QB counts. It won’t happen this week, but it should happen and then we can report that Wilson won’t help your fantasy team as much either.

Put Fields on a bad team, let him do whatever he wants, and yes, we could have a QB1 option. Put Fields on the Steelers and let him do nothing, and we have the No. 22 fantasy QB, roughly tied with the Giants’ Daniel Jones, who nobody wants. Yes, his team doesn’t want him to do much either.

Look, everyone wanted to believe that McCaffrey, who played 16 games over the last three years, was suddenly robust and trustworthy again, as if a 16-game season and monster fantasy stats meant there was nothing to worry about. Nobody knew The would happen. The 49ers weren’t exactly forthcoming about McCaffrey’s calf injury in early August — or even two weeks ago — and while they acted surprised that they eventually had to place their star running back on the injured list, we can be skeptical. Maybe McCaffrey returns by Halloween weekend and manages to stay healthy enough to play the second half of the season, but I certainly wouldn’t trade him as a top-10 running back. I would trade him for Jordan Mason, though.

The more emotional point is that McCaffrey was a worthy No. 1 fantasy pick based on the information we thought we knew and wanted to believe. I took him in a league. I regret it, of course, but look at who else was selected in Round 1. Who should have been No. 1? Don’t say Saints RB Alvin Kamara. Many put Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill at No. 2, and I’m outraged there, but now he has a backup QB throwing to him for nobody knows how long. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson has a 97-yard touchdown play and not much else. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb makes sense now, even though 30 other flex-eligible players have more PPR points to show in two weeks. How about Jets RB Breece Hall?

If I were re-drafting today, I’d go with Lamb (and he tops my rankings for the rest of the season), but I certainly would have preferred a later first-round pick (and a later second-round pick). After McCaffrey lapped the field in PPR points per game last season, he was the obvious choice, and there’s no reason to worry about it now.