Brandenburg election in the live ticker: First forecast is here

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Status: 22.09.2024, 18:03

From: Regina Wolf, Julian Kaiser

The Brandenburg election is taking place today. All information on voter turnout, initial forecasts and the result in the live ticker.

Update, Sunday (22 September), 6:05 p.m.: The first forecast for the 2024 state election in Brandenburg is now available. With 32 percent, the SPD would be the strongest force. According to the 6 p.m. forecast, the AfD only comes in second place with 29 percent.

The BSW (12 percent) and the CDU (11.5 percent) would also continue to be represented in the state parliament. The Greens are in for a disappointment. According to the first forecast, they will only achieve 4.5 percent and would therefore fail to clear the five percent hurdle, just like the Left (4 percent).

Update, Sunday (22 September), 4:03 p.m.: There is a high voter turnout in today’s state election. As the state election officer announced, 46.1 percent of eligible voters had already cast their votes by 2 p.m. In the 2019 state election, this figure was only 31.3 percent.

Update, Sunday (22 September), 1:28 p.m.: When he cast his vote in Golßen (Dahme-Spreewald district), AfD top candidate Dr. Hans-Christoph Berndt commented on a possible election victory for his party. Victory in the state elections in Brandenburg in 2024 would be a “clear sign of hope,” said Berndt. He continued: If the AfD gains strength, “things will get better again in Germany.”

However, the fate of Brandenburg will not be decided in this state election, but in the next few years, explained the AfD’s top candidate. Brandenburg’s Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke (SPD), on the other hand, recently spoke of a “fateful election” for Brandenburg.

Opinion poll for the state election in Brandenburg – AfD narrowly ahead

Update, Sunday (22 September), 10.10 a.m.: High tension in Brandenburg: The first forecasts for the elections in Brandenburg are expected at 6 p.m. when the polling stations close. The last polls before the election saw the AfD only just ahead of the SPD. In the ZDF Politbarometer Extra on September 19, the AfD, with 28 percent, was only one percentage point ahead of the SPD (27 percent).

The CDU (14 percent) was also still represented in the state parliament, and is fighting for third place with the BSW (13 percent). The Greens are currently below the five percent hurdle with 4.5 percent. Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock cast her vote this morning in Potsdam. “A lot is at stake,” said the Green politician after casting her vote.

Update, Sunday (22 September), 8.45 a.m.: The polling stations in Brandenburg have been open since Sunday morning at 8 a.m. The main focus is on how well the AfD is doing. In recent polls, the AfD was just ahead of the SPD, which has been the Prime Minister in Brandenburg since 1990. 2.1 million people are allowed to go to the polls today.

Election in Brandenburg: SPD will score points with curious campaign slogan

First report, Friday (20 September), 9 a.m.: After the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, in which the AfD achieved very strong election results, voters in Brandenburg are now being asked to go to the polls. In order to prevail against the right-wing populists, who the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as “suspected right-wing extremists”, Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke (SPD) is relying on a humorous election slogan. More on this here in the RUHR24 live ticker.

A full 55 percent of Brandenburg residents would like Woidke to continue as Prime Minister, reports the ZDF with a view to a current survey. However, the 62-year-old will not rely on this in the hot phase of the election campaign (more political news at RUHR24).

With the slogan “If bald, then Woidke,” the SPD politician is trying to acquire the last votes before election Sunday – well aware of the shift to the right that has not spared his federal state either. However, his party never tires of emphasizing the seriousness behind this humorous saying.

“We don’t want to see any right-wing extremist skinheads in Brandenburg, but only one democratic skinhead: Dietmar Woidke.” For a stable, secure Brandenburg without brown spots on the Brandenburg flag. “Only Woidke and his Brandenburg SPD can prevent a victory for the AfD,” the SPD announced at X.

State elections in Brandenburg: AfD and SPD are in a neck-and-neck race

Woidke’s core issue is economic growth, which, according to the red-black-green state government, amounted to 2.1 percent in 2023. Nationwide, this puts the state in second place behind Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (3.3 percent).

The AfD, on the other hand, is unsurprisingly focusing on its core issue of immigration and the question of how to handle the asylum regulations, which is currently heating up the political debate more than ever. Lead candidate Christoph Bernd and his party recently even called for asylum seekers to be excluded from public events such as folk festivals – a clear violation of Article 3 of the Basic Law.

State elections in Brandenburg: Greens, Left and BVB/FW fear entry into parliament

According to the election research institute “Infratest dimap”, the SPD is unchanged at around 26 percent compared to 2019. A few days before the state election in Brandenburg, the AfD is just ahead in first place with 27 percent. They would therefore record an increase of over three percent.

While the CDU is relatively safe in third place with around 16 percent, the Greens (4.5 percent), the Left Party (4 percent) and the Brandenburg United Citizens’ Movement/Free Voters (BVB/FW) with 4.5 percent are still worried about entering parliament.

State election in Brandenburg: BSW scores with “unique selling point in the party system”

As in Saxony and Thuringia, the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition could be the deciding factor in the formation of the new cabinet in Brandenburg. According to “Infratest dimap”, the newly founded coalition could achieve around 13 percent straight away – and thus become a decisive factor for Woidke if the Greens actually fail to clear the 5 percent hurdle.

But why does the BSW appeal to so many voters with the little-known labor judge and top candidate Robert Crumbach? The party has “a certain unique selling point in the party system, as it combines left-wing positions on social policy with conservative positions on cultural issues,” said political scientist Werner Krause from the University of Potsdam to the ZDF.