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topicnews · September 22, 2024

Why do voters love political forecasts? Allan Lichtman may know.

Why do voters love political forecasts? Allan Lichtman may know.

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All summer, Americans waited anxiously for two crucial political statements.

The first was Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, who rose to the top of the Democratic ticket after Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign. Swift officially endorsed the vice president shortly after her debate with Donald Trump, calling her a “quiet, gifted leader.”

And the second statement? That didn’t come from another pop star. Instead, some election observers were waiting on tenterhooks for a prediction from Allan Lichtman, a 77-year-old distinguished history professor at American University who lives in Bethesda, Maryland.

That’s because Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of nearly every election for decades, with the exception of the 2000 election. He uses a set of 13 “keys” to make his predictions, ranging from economic indicators to the charisma of the candidates.

Here’s how his model works: If six or more key votes go against the party in the White House, their defeat is predicted. Otherwise, Lichtman predicts that the party in power will win again.

Lichtman predicted earlier this month that Harris would defeat Trump, sending shockwaves among political observers and making headlines in the media. He told USA TODAY he has received a bigger response to his 2024 prediction than ever before.

“Perhaps it is because of how much is at stake in this election and how extraordinary this election is: The incumbent president is resigning shortly before the party convention, the opposing candidate has been convicted of 34 crimes,” Lichtman said.

“It was an avalanche.”

More: Historian who correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections makes his choice for 2024

Why do Americans love political predictions?

Lichtman’s work is not your average academic research, and the professor’s publications have been attracting attention for years. But is there such a thing as a buttoned-up history professor who becomes an A-list pageant celebrity every four years?

If you search Lichtman’s name on the Internet, you’ll be inundated with video after video of the professor explaining his “keys” and giving interviews about the recent election. You can watch his prediction that Trump and his MAGA movement would defeat Hillary Clinton. You can read his prediction that America would elect its first black president in 2008.

When asked about the response his predictions have received, Lichtman smiles, pauses, and then simply says that he and his family have been “very confused.”

“I was kind of amazed why they were so interested,” Lichtman said. “They’ll find out soon enough who won or lost. Why do they need to know in advance?”

But why are American politicians so drawn to all election forecasts – not just Lichtman’s? The professor says he believes “it has to do with instant gratification.”

“We live in a society of instant gratification. That’s part of it,” he said. “The other part is that we live in a society of predictions. It’s not just politics. Look at sports. On sports radio, they’re constantly making predictions about what’s going to happen in the next few games. Will coaches get fired? Who will get traded and who won’t?

“It’s also entertainment. Do you know who’s going to win the Oscar? When is that couple going to get divorced? Do you know who’s going to get together with who?” he asked. “It’s everywhere.”

Finally, Lichtman says the “scandal” key is his favorite of the 13. He calls it a much more powerful step than weighing economic data or wins and losses in the midterm elections.

Still, the professor said that the flood of interviews in election years is not the best part of his job, nor does he enjoy giving keynote speeches at conferences or receiving other academic awards.

“The best thing about being known is that every day people come up to me and say they admire what I do: security guards at AU, Uber drivers, waiters and waitresses,” Lichtman said.

Yes, he knows the critics

Lichtman is no stranger to criticism. The reactions to his choice of candidate are not only questions from the media or conversations with voters in the Washington area. This year alone, he has received messages accusing him of being a “tool of the Democrats” or of being paid by Harris.

But he has been confronted with it for years.

Lichtman’s first prediction came in 1982, when he predicted Ronald Reagan’s re-election. He developed the model together with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a Russian seismologist who studied earthquakes rather than elections.

The professor explains that he received the first resistance from other meteorologists.

“I had committed the cardinal sin of subjectivity. Some of my keys were not just clear statistical indicators like economic growth,” he explained. “And I said, ‘No, it’s not subjectivity. It’s judgment. We’re dealing with people. People make judgments all the time.'”

But as his work gained momentum, he also faced criticism from politicians, journalists, pollsters and other analysts outside the academic community. These groups have long made similar criticisms, accusing his keys of being based on the opinions of the person using the model rather than on static markers.

Lichtman’s answer? He argues that his work provides specific guidelines for each key. A strong short-term economic cycle, for example, does not simply refer to how the person applying the method thinks Americans feel about the economy. Rather, the factor asks whether the economy is in recession during an election campaign.

The professor still regularly responds to negative feedback online, but he says he tries to remember that over the years, people have made such personal accusations as asking if his hair is real. “As if my hair has anything to do with my predictions,” he said, tugging at his brown locks to prove their authenticity.

“But I have to tell you,” Lichtman noted, “being attacked is not the worst thing that can happen to you. You know what the worst is? Being ignored. And I haven’t been ignored in a good 20 years now.”

Lichtman wins for Harris

Almost all major national polls have concluded that the outcome of the race is within the margin of error and too close to make a definitive prediction.

But Lichtman said earlier this month that his key factors point to a historic victory for Harris this fall. That’s because she didn’t have to fight a significant primary before being nominated as the Democratic nominee, there is no significant third-party candidate after Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential bid ended, and Lichtman’s definition of his model’s two key economic factors works in her favor.

He also said the Democrats have not experienced “sustained social unrest.” Lichtman argued that the pro-Palestinian protests over Gaza that have rocked parts of the country, among other factors, do not meet his criteria.

In 2000, Lichtman said that eight of the 13 key factors could be good news for Democrats, even though Al Gore ultimately lost the race to George W. Bush after a lengthy battle that ended up in the Supreme Court.

Lichtman caused a stir in June when he said Democrats should not abandon Biden – even after the president’s disastrous debate performance that sparked an uproar and ended his campaign.

However, the professor explained that as questions about Biden’s re-election campaign grow louder, he believes Democrats stand to lose two key positions: the power of the incumbent and the role that primaries can play. With Biden out of the race, Democrats sacrificed the immediate name recognition and other benefits that re-election has long brought.

But Harris did not have to face the typical primary process for the Democratic nomination, nor did she have to compete against other politicians, so the left managed to save this part of Lichtman’s model.

And no, in case you were wondering: The recent debate between Harris and Trump and the second assassination attempt on the former president change nothing.

“None of these ephemeral events, not the debate, not the alleged assassination attempt, not JD Vance saying he made up a story about immigrants eating cats and dogs,” Lichtman said. “None of that changes the fundamentals of the election. And none of that changes my prediction.”

Political predictions… and Olympic Games for seniors?

Lichtman is not only familiar with elections.

He has been a runner for 60 years, since he was 16, and recently had his own victories at the Maryland Senior Olympics, where he won bronze and gold medals, qualifying for next year’s national competition.

His wife, Karyn Strickler, is a triathlete and the couple have long enjoyed playing basketball together. Lichtman explained that during a supposedly friendly game, their friends would always remark: “When Allan and Karyn play one-on-one, there’s blood on the floor.”

Still, her family is very politically minded. Strickler is the founder and president of Vote Climate US PAC, which, according to its website, works to “elect candidates who will eliminate all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.” Lichtman regularly hosts a live show on YouTube where he talks politics with his son, Sam.

Lichtman gave USA TODAY another reason why he — and Americans from coast to coast — might be so interested in political predictions.

“It’s fun. It’s interesting. I’ve been doing this for 40 years. I’m 77. I still get butterflies in my stomach every four years because I could be wrong,” he said. “Of course I could be wrong. Anyone could be wrong.”

Contributors: Karissa Waddick, Elizabeth Beyer

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