US presidential election is neck-and-neck – Firstpost

The US presidential election campaign has all the hallmarks of a suspenseful thriller: twists, suspense, high stakes, power plays, violence and filth! The excitement and fear are mounting as the campaign heats up and the day of reckoning draws ever closer.

It’s hard to believe that until recently, it was hard to refrain from yawning as two aging gladiators battled it out. With the unprecedented withdrawal of President Joe Biden, the race has become a spirited generational contest between eloquence and swagger, between aspiration and achievement, between hope and fear, and between harmony and bigotry. At least, that’s what the Democrats would have you believe!

Frankly, American politics is deeply and bitterly divided. Sadly, violence has also entered the discourse. Earlier this week, another person was arrested in Florida, allegedly armed with a gun to attack Donald Trump. Emotions are running high and fearmongering is the order of the day.

What sounds like demagoguery to Democrats is gospel to Republicans. For example, Trump claims that under Biden’s watch, countries like Venezuela have emptied their prisons and mental institutions and flooded the U.S. with 21 million illegal immigrants, including murderers, drug dealers and rapists. And that Haitian refugees have stolen and eaten the pets of residents of Springfield, Ohio. These blatantly false and racist statements, which are being absorbed by Republicans, stoke tensions and endanger the safety of immigrants.

Trump is again claiming he will solve America’s economic problems by forcing other countries to pay hundreds of billions of dollars in compensation for unfair trade practices through the imposition of tariffs. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding knows that tariffs are paid by consumers, not exporting countries. Trump’s tariffs would only fuel inflation and make products more expensive for American buyers. Yet hardly anyone is willing to check the facts and call him out on it.

It was in this atmosphere that the first and perhaps only televised debate between Trump and Harris took place on September 10. Most political experts claim that such debates have no influence on the election outcome. However, 2024 seems to suggest the opposite. The encounter with Trump on June 27 dashed Biden’s hopes of a second term. The latest confrontation appears to have damaged Trump’s reputation.

Kamala Harris, the self-proclaimed outsider, demonstrated that she is made of tougher stuff. She appeared confident, articulate, well-prepared and knowledgeable. Harris took the initiative by walking up to Trump, shaking his hand and introducing herself, surprising him. They were face-to-face for the first time. She attacked Trump relentlessly whenever she got the chance, but was also careful to remain positive and articulate her vision for America’s future. She succeeded in unsettling Trump and cementing her position with the Democrats.

Trump, on the other hand, couldn’t help but be himself. He dodged uncomfortable questions, continued to claim he won in 2020, denied inciting his supporters to march on the Capitol, and falsely claimed that the crime rate in the country had skyrocketed due to illegal immigrants allowed in by the Biden administration. He incessantly insisted on his favorite themes, namely inflation, mismanagement of the economy, and erosion of the US’s global reputation.

As expected, both sides declared victory, but it is unclear whether either side managed to win over many independent or undecided voters who hold the keys to the White House.

Trump’s support base remains rock solid. Kamala Harris faces a bigger challenge. In a recent New York Times/Siena College According to a poll, 28 percent of likely voters said they need to know more about Harris.

Nevertheless, Harris’ campaign team is still on course for success. Within 24 hours of the debate, $47 million was raised in donations, and in August the figure was $361 million – more than twice as much as the opposition.

Significantly, for the first time, over 200 leading Republicans have broken ranks, expressing their support for Kamala Harris and declaring that they would put the nation before their party. The most prominent among them is former Vice President Dick Chenny, a staunch Republican who has called Trump the greatest threat to the country in its history. The Trump campaign is trying to put on a brave face by calling them RINO (Republicans In Name Only).

But what has really unsettled Republicans is the endorsement of Harris by pop star Tylor Swift, who has 285 million followers on Instagram. Her fans, mostly young people, the “Swifties”, have already formed a support group called “Swifties for Kamala” that can turn the tide in her favor. Trump ranted, saying, “I hate Tylor Swift.” Celebrity endorsements are quite common in US politics; however, their effectiveness is controversial. Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Barack Obama in 2008 is said to have brought him a million votes, which is hugely significant in the American election campaign. She has now thrown her full support behind Harris.

If Swift’s support for Harris can bring even a fraction of additional votes, especially in the swing states, it could make a huge difference. Believe it or not, in this country of 330 million people and 244 million eligible voters, a presidential election can be decided by a margin of just 25,000 votes in the crucial swing states.

Due to the complex electoral arithmetic in the US, the winner is not determined by the majority of votes, but by the number of delegates in the electoral college (Electoral Votes or EVs). A candidate must receive 270 of 538 EVs to win. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received almost 3 million more votes nationwide than Trump, but fell short in the swing states. She only managed to win 227 EVs and lost.

Each state was allocated EVs in proportion to its population. For example, a large state like California has 54 EVs, while Vermont has only 3. The candidate with the most votes in a state receives all EVs, regardless of margin of victory (winner-takes-all system), except in Maine and Nebraska.

In the US, most states are considered Republican or Democratic strongholds and are therefore nicknamed “red” or “blue” states, respectively. However, some states have changed their color depending on the popularity of the candidates. These are also called “purple states”. The number of these states varies from time to time. Currently, there are seven of these decisive states, namely Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10). The number of electric cars they own is shown in parentheses.

In 2020, Biden won Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin by 0.24 to 0.63 percent, for a total margin of less than 43,000 votes. In other words, if Trump had lost about 21,600 of those votes, he might have still been able to occupy the White House. This should give you an idea of ​​how close the election campaign was and still is!

Of course, both candidates are focused on the “red states,” especially Pennsylvania. In the last ten out of twelve elections, the winner in Pennsylvania became president.

Harris currently leads Trump by two to three percentage points in national opinion polls, but in some swing states her lead is less than one percentage point. The race is wide open. Both candidates know that any perceived misstep could prove fatal.

The author is a foreign policy expert and former envoy to Canada and South Korea. The views expressed in the above article are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.