How the war in Ukraine changed Russia’s power in the South Caucasus

Russia’s war against Ukraine has changed the European security architecture. It also raises questions about Moscow’s ability to maintain its influence and power position over the former Soviet republics, which it sees as key to its great power ambitions. For years, Russia was largely able to use its military, political and economic influence to advance its core interests vis-à-vis the three South Caucasus states, but Georgia’s Western-oriented foreign policy, the growing Western encroachment into the region and the shift in the balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh gradually posed challenges to the Kremlin’s influence. Now that the war in Ukraine has diverted Moscow’s attention from the region, power dynamics there are once again in flux.

How has Russia’s changed focus since February 2022 affected Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia? Has the war in Ukraine changed Moscow’s priorities and its ability to exercise power in these countries? How have the three countries adjusted their relations with Russia?

This event will discuss Russia’s interests in the South Caucasus, the changes in its influence in the region since the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, and its resulting ability to advance its interests as the war continues. It will also examine the implications of this new situation for actors inside and outside the region.

For further information please contact Monika Dlugosch at [email protected].

The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) is a nonpartisan political organization committed to the idea that the United States and Europe are stronger together.