Juba in a dilemma: Sponsors criticize contract extension

By FRED OLUOCH

South Sudan’s transitional government may face questions of legitimacy as it begins its extended term in office following failed plans to hold elections originally scheduled for December this year.

The reality check came this week when Juba’s development partners, who had offered guarantees for the 2018 peace deal on which the coalition agreement was based, indicated they did not support an extension.

Their argument is essentially that South Sudan had already extended its government’s term twice in the past, but had still failed to fulfil its obligations to ensure the holding of elections.

Read: Juba plans third extension of transitional government

In a joint statement, the African Union Mission in South Sudan (AUMISS), the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) and the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said the extension represented a failure by the Government of National Unity to meet key targets.

“Regrettably, none of these extensions have contributed to achieving their objectives since the signing of the R-ARCSS on September 12, 2018. It is imperative for the leaders of South Sudan to put the interests of the nation and its people first,” they said, referring to the 2018 peace agreement brokered by Igad.

These goals included the unification of the armed forces and reforms in the security sector. Due to the trust deficit, only 53,000 of the 83,000 soldiers called for in the 2018 peace agreement have been trained and integrated so far.

But even the soldiers who have joined the army lack weapons and often have to go without pay for months.

In addition, elections in the country will not be possible until a permanent constitution is adopted, which experts say could take at least three years.

Another prerequisite is the conduct of a census to determine the exact population of South Sudan and also to enable the definition of electoral districts.

There are also questions about the registration of political parties, the return of more than 2.5 million refugees in neighboring countries and the resettlement of the 1.5 million internally displaced persons.

South Sudan needs $228 million for the elections, of which it can currently afford only 15 percent. But donors insist that Juba must fully implement the 2018 agreement – especially security sector reforms.

The actual 24-month extension begins on September 22. However, development partners have released a joint statement condemning the move. The group known as the Troika – comprising the UK, US, Norway, EU, Canada, France, Germany and the Netherlands – expressed disappointment at the decision and stressed that timely elections are crucial to strengthening stability, democracy and sustainable development.

“We note the announcement by the Transitional Government on 13 September to extend its term of office for two years. We are aware of the many challenges facing South Sudan and understand the complexity of the electoral process. The Unity Government is responsible for this decision and accountable to the people of South Sudan,” the Troika said.

Donors also criticized the government for failing to implement the 2018 peace agreement, despite a “roadmap” being published in 2022.

Read: International peacekeepers criticize postponement of elections in South Sudan

“The process for developing this plan must be consultative, inclusive and transparent. A 24-month extension would mean 24 more months of spending for the institutions implementing the peace process.

“We expect the Government of South Sudan to provide a credible and transparent plan to finance these measures. The signatories continue to express their full support for the people of South Sudan,” they said.

Other stakeholders commented on the matter, but most disagreed with Juba.

Catholic Archbishop Cardinal Stephen Ameyu described this move as a lack of political engagement.

“While political decisions are needed to ensure sustainable peace in South Sudan, the political elites and the parties to the peace agreement should not continually exploit the resilience of the South Sudanese people but stick to their promises,” the cleric said.

While Juba is facing legitimacy problems, politicians in the country complain that the elections could not take place due to a lack of funds and a general lack of preparation.

President Salva Kiir and his first deputy Dr. Riek Machar were skeptical about the elections, even though they had often sent contradictory signals over the past year.

In South Sudan, 13 years have now passed without elections since independence from Sudan.

Read: South Sudan postpones elections to 2026 and extends transitional government

According to Cabinet Minister Dr. Martin Elia Lomuro, the latest extension will enable the government to implement the remaining key provisions of the 2018 peace agreement.

“The extension comes in response to the recommendations of the electoral institutions and the security sector. It offers the opportunity to implement the remaining outstanding points of the peace agreement,” he said.

Elections scheduled for December 22, 2024 have been postponed to December 2026 because key provisions of the 2018 peace agreement have not been implemented.

However, this delay has raised concerns about whether it could harm alternative talks to engage parties that stayed away from the 2018 peace agreement.

At the talks in Nairobi, known as the “Tumaini Initiative”, nine protocols were agreed upon, including an agreement on the peaceful negotiation of the country’s political reforms and the drafting of a constitution.

Dr Cirino Hiteny, a delegate of the Tumaini Initiative, said there was considerable uncertainty as to whether the initiative would bear fruit after the extension, without taking into account the Nairobi talks.

“We are waiting for the government delegation to return from Juba to know how to proceed,” he said this week.

Political commentator Mogga Loyo argued that the Tumaini initiative had always been a threat to some members of the government because it would mean giving up their posts to accommodate the holdouts.

Dr. Machar, the leader of the opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-IO (SPLM-IO), has made it clear that he opposes the Tumaini initiative because it seeks to replace the 2018 peace agreement, officially known as the Revitalized Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS).

Meanwhile, Major General Charles Tai Gituai, chairman of the newly revitalized Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC) that monitors violations of the peace agreement, expressed concern about the lack of progress in meeting key electoral requirements and inadequate funding for the implementation of the peace agreement.

“In March this year, we called on the R-ARCSS parties to engage in dialogue on how to proceed to ensure the timely holding of free, fair and credible elections in accordance with the roadmap. But despite all the pressure, the response has been slow,” he said, referring to the signatories of the 2018 peace agreement.

“An extension without guaranteed funding is unlikely to produce a successful outcome. We call on the RTGoNU to address funding and other challenges that have delayed implementation,” said General Gituai.

Prince Malish, a leading humanitarian, development and policy expert, believes that South Sudan can escape the transition trap with a gradual and sustainable plan.

Read: Why the US is concerned about South Sudan’s political record

He proposed a phased approach to the election, divided into three phases at the national, state and local levels, which could be carried out between December 2025 and December 2026.

“This approach could enable the government to test the waters, contain potential electoral violence, optimize resource use, build public and donor confidence, and address the exhaustion and overload of the National Election Commission.

“He also pointed out that given the nature of the country, low literacy rate, logistical complexity and limited security options, a phased electoral process would enable the gaps to be filled at each stage,” Malish explained.

According to Article 199 of South Sudan’s 2011 Transitional Constitution, any changes or postponements to general elections must be made at least one month before deliberations.

After South Sudan gained independence in July 2011, elections were scheduled to be held in 2015, but they were cancelled due to the civil war.

And once again the country was scheduled to hold elections in February 2023, but the leadership secured a 24-month extension in August 2022, arguing that the country was not ready.