Will Kamala Harris let the Trump tax cuts expire?

They used this misleading rhetoric to distract voters from the reality: their tax plan would raise taxes for most people, whereas the Republican tax reform would lower taxes for people of all income groups.

Harris and the Democrats still have to answer a fundamental question: Will they let the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire and impose trillions of dollars in tax increases on the middle class?

While the anti-billionaire rhetoric may sound good on the campaign trail, the TCJA actually changed individual provisions of the tax code to allow taxpayers of all income levels to keep more of their hard-earned money. And unless Democrats join Republicans in extending these popular provisions, people will face a tax increase of over $4 trillion in 2026, the largest in U.S. history. The middle and working classes, those making less than $400,000 a year, will be hit the hardest.

Despite Democrats’ continued misinterpretations, the TCJA delivered tax relief to 80 percent of the population, with middle-class taxpayers receiving the largest proportional benefit from the tax cuts. Under the improved tax system, top earners actually paid a larger share of total taxes than they did before the law was passed.

When the TCJA expires next year, a single mother of one child with an annual income of $30,000 will pay more than $1,000 in taxes, according to the Tax Foundation’s estimates. A family of four with a median household income of $75,000 will face a tax increase estimated at more than $1,500.

In addition to lowering tax rates, the TCJA also helped low- and middle-income families tremendously by doubling the standard deduction and simplifying the process of filing taxes. Before the TCJA, 47 million taxpayers had to go through the time-consuming process of itemizing their tax deductions. With a higher standard deduction, fewer than 15 million people itemize and about 9 in 10 taxpayers now simply take the standard deduction, saving time and money.

The law also significantly reduced the impact of the alternative minimum tax, a hidden tax that forced some families, especially small business owners, to calculate their tax liability twice. Before the TCJA, more than 5 million taxpayers were impacted by the unnecessary AMT, compared to about 200,000 after the law was passed. This simplification alone saved taxpayers an estimated $4.6 billion in compliance costs. Allowing these common-sense provisions to expire would mean a more expensive and burdensome tax experience for millions of families.

The TCJA also increased the child tax credit, doubling the maximum amount for working families from $1,000 to $2,000, and increased the refund eligibility for low-income earners. Crucially, the higher tax credits continued to tie benefits to employment, providing incentives for steady employment and ensuring that the tax credit was linked to a long-term upward trajectory.

By doubling the child tax credit, lowering tax rates and increasing the flat tax allowance, the Republicans have deliberately relieved the burden on the middle class. In fact, it was the bottom 50% of the highest earners who received the largest reduction in the average tax rate, at around 17.3%.

Critics claim that the TCJA created loopholes for the top 1%, but in fact the law took steps to limit tax breaks for wealthy people. For example, the TCJA limited the state and local tax deduction, which effectively provides a subsidy for many high-income residents in high-tax states like California and New York.

People across the board benefited from a booming economy in the wake of the TCJA. In the period after its passage and before the pandemic, workers made progress as household incomes rose and every tax bracket and demographic benefited from a strong labor market. Real median household income rose by more than $5,000, and the largest wage increases were seen by the lowest-income workers.

These benefits have also benefited historically disadvantaged groups—unemployment rates among black and Latino voters, as well as those without college degrees, have fallen to historically low levels. We must protect and expand this proven tax formula and enable everyone to benefit from a strong economy.

As Congress prepares for the upcoming tax debate, it’s important that people understand what’s at stake. The TCJA provided significant tax relief and created economic opportunity for individuals at every income level.

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While Democrats continue to promise that they will not raise taxes on people earning less than $400,000 a year – which is currently about $487,000 when adjusted for inflation – expiring these comprehensive reforms would result in a tax increase of over $2 trillion for this group.

Between now and 2025, Senate Republicans will focus on preventing massive tax increases on working families and investing in American families and jobs. Whether Democrats and their presidential candidate share this commitment remains to be seen.

Mike Crapo is a U.S. Senator from Idaho and ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee..