What you should know about the deadly pager explosions against Hezbollah

NEW YORK (AP) — In what appears to be a sophisticated long-range attack, the pagers of hundreds of Hezbollah members exploded almost simultaneously in Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday, killing at least 12 people, including two children, and injuring thousands more.

A U.S. official said Israel informed the U.S. of the operation on Tuesday after it was completed, which involved detonating small amounts of explosives hidden in the pagers. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the information publicly.

The Iran-backed militant group blamed Israel for the deadly explosions, which targeted an extraordinary number of people and showed signs of a long-planned operation. Details of how the attack was carried out are largely unclear and investigators did not immediately say how the pagers were detonated. The Israeli military has not commented.

Here’s what we know so far:

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had previously warned members of the group not to carry mobile phones because Israel could use them to track the group’s movements. For this reason, the organization uses pagers to communicate.

A Hezbollah official told The Associated Press that the explosive devices that exploded were a new brand that the group had not used before. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press, did not name the brand or the supplier.

Taiwanese company Gold Apollo said Wednesday that it had authorized the use of its trademark for the AR-924 pager model. Budapest, Hungary-based BAC Consulting manufactured and sold the pagers. Further information about BAC was not immediately available.

Nicholas Reese, an associate professor at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University’s School of Professional Studies, said smartphones pose a higher risk of conversations being intercepted than the simpler technology of pagers.

Such an attack would also force Hezbollah to change its communications strategies, said Reese, a former intelligence officer. He added that survivors of Tuesday’s explosions would likely “throw away not only their pagers, but their phones and leave behind their tablets or other electronic devices.”

Although a U.S. official confirmed it was a planned Israeli operation, several theories emerged Tuesday about how the attack might have been carried out. Several experts who spoke to The Associated Press said the explosions were most likely the result of a supply chain disruption.

It is possible that very small explosive devices were built into the pagers before they were delivered to Hezbollah, which were then detonated all simultaneously by remote control, possibly via a radio signal.

At the time of the attack, “the battery was probably half an explosive charge and half a real battery,” said Carlos Perez, director of security intelligence at TrustedSec.

A former British Army bomb disposal officer explained that an explosive device consists of five main components: a container, a battery, a trigger device, a detonator and an explosive charge.

“A pager already has three of them,” said the former police officer, who asked to remain anonymous because he now works as a consultant for clients in the Middle East. “You just need to add the detonator and the charge.”

After surveillance camera footage surfaced on social media on Tuesday purporting to show one of the pagers attached to a man’s hip exploding in a Lebanese market, two munitions experts issued statements confirming the U.S. official’s statement that the explosion appeared to have been caused by a tiny explosive device.

“If you look at the video, the size of the detonation is comparable to that of a mere electrical detonator or a detonation containing an extremely small, highly explosive charge,” said Sean Moorhouse, a former British army officer and explosive ordnance disposal expert.

This suggests the involvement of a state actor, Moorhouse said, adding that the Israeli foreign intelligence service Mossad was the most obvious suspect with the means to carry out such an attack.

NR Jenzen-Jones, a military weapons expert and director of Australia’s Armament Research Services, points out that Israel has been accused of conducting similar operations in the past. Last year, AP reported that Iran accused Israel of sabotaging its ballistic missile program by using faulty foreign parts that could explode and damage or destroy the weapons before they could be deployed.

How long did this operation take?

Planning an attack of this magnitude would take a long time. The exact details are still unknown, but experts who spoke to AP estimated the time span would be between a few months and two years.

The sophistication of the attack suggests the perpetrator has been gathering intelligence for a long time, Reese said. An attack of this caliber requires building the relationships necessary to gain physical access to the pagers before they are sold; developing the technology that would be embedded in the devices; and obtaining sources who can confirm that victims were carrying the pagers.

And it’s likely that the compromised pagers appeared normal to their users some time before the attack. Elijah J. Magnier, a Brussels-based veteran and senior political risk analyst with over 37 years of experience in the region, said he has spoken with Hezbollah members and survivors of Tuesday’s pager attack. He said the pagers were obtained more than six months ago.

“The pagers worked perfectly for six months,” said Magnier. The explosion was apparently triggered by an error message that was sent to all devices.

Based on his conversations with Hezbollah members, Magnier also said many pagers did not go off, allowing the group to examine them. They concluded that between three and five grams of a highly explosive material was hidden or embedded in the circuits, he said.

Jenzen-Jones also adds that “an operation on such a large scale also raises questions about targeting” – highlighting the number of casualties and the enormous impact reported so far.

“How can the person who detonates the explosive device be sure that, for example, the target person’s child will not play with the pager if it works?” he asked.

Associated Press writer Johnson Lai in Taipei contributed to this report.