Tie is the word in a four-game series against the Pirates – A series preview

I have written a few series previews where the season was over, but the season was not Really so it feels kind of weird to write a preview where there isn’t even a small chance that the season makes the playoffs. Technically, according to ESPN, the Cardinals have less than a 0.1% chance. So there’s a simulation somewhere where the Cardinals make the playoffs. I imagine literally winning the remaining games is the bare minimum.

What’s at stake now is basically bragging rights, or maybe 2nd place if that sort of thing matters to you. Most people probably wouldn’t care if the Cubs weren’t currently the 2nd place team. The Cardinals don’t really have their fate in their hands there, as they don’t have to face the Cubs anymore. What they can ensure in this four-game set is not finishing in last place. The Cardinals are three games ahead of the Pirates, and even a tie would make it pretty difficult for the Pirates to overtake the Cardinals.

The Cardinals haven’t seen the Pirates since early July, so the Pirates have made some small changes to their team, but it’s largely the same team. One signing I have to admit I don’t quite understand is Isiah Kiner-Falefa. It’s not so much about his signing, but the importance they seem to place on him.

First of all, he’s not a good hitter and never has been, but he’s the Pirates’ first batter. They’re so comfortable there that they’ve moved Andrew McCutchen, who has batted first in 384 of his 484 batting appearances, to the fourth position. That’s partly to do with McCutchen, who has a wRC+ of 112. But giving most of your team’s batting appearances to a hitter with an 83 wRC+ (with a wRC+ projection of 86 who also hit terribly as a Pirate).

They also gave him the starting SS position and moved Oneil Cruz to center. This has a lot to do with Cruz, who has been bad as a defender, with -13 OAA over 1,700 innings. Although he was only -3 this year. But IKF is not a particularly good defender as an SS. He’s a little below average. He’s acceptable, he’s probably better than Cruz. But do they have any longer-term plans with this guy? He signed for another year. Anyway, a lot of this confusion comes from the fact that I see IKF as a backup fit and the Pirates clearly plan on him as a shortstop.

They also traded Bryan de la Cruz from the Marlins. I get that. They traded a bunch of deadbeats because they thought Cruz had a better chance of being something than those talents. But Cruz has 1,786 at-bats and is a 91 wRC+ hitter, he’s 27 and absolutely terrible on defense. So good luck with that.

I give the Pirates credit for Joey Bart, who was supposed to be the designated successor to Buster Posey but went out far too often and then Patrick Bailey came along. Without that pressure, he has a wRC+ of 130 in nearly 250 at-bats. Is he that good of a hitter? Probably not. But at least it seems reasonable that he’s a decent hitter.

They traded Billy Cook for a player who looks like a prospect, but doesn’t look so great on paper. He had his breakout season as a “prospect” this year, starting the year in AA at 25. But the projection systems certainly aren’t buying the breakout season, with a 67 wRC+ projection from ZiPS. He has 7 strikeouts in his first 18 at-bats, allowing three hits. He’s a corner outfielder/1B player.

What else? Nick Gonzales was their cleanup hitter the last time the Cardinals faced them, and his batting line was already in freefall, and now he has a wRC+ of 87. Rowdy Tellez has a wRC+ of 93, but I’m sure he’ll hit two home runs and hit a .500 batting average in this series. Ke’Bryan Hayes has been bad and is currently injured, and the role of everyday 3B has gone to Jared Triolo, who also can’t hit and whose defense doesn’t come close to Hayes’ (whose defense does).

The bullpen is more or less the same. Bednar isn’t making saves anymore. I mean, he hasn’t been really successful at getting them, but what I’m saying is he’s not trying to get saves anymore. Aroldis Chapman seems to be their closer. Colin Holderman is living up to his name and still making holds. They traded Jalen Beeks, who was good for them and is left-handed, so he’s going to be a problem. I guess the Pirates kind of tried at the deadline? Because they didn’t trade Chapman, they traded a reliever who is a free agent at the end of the year. Not a huge signing, but I don’t remember them being that close.

Monday – 18:45

Paul Skenes (2.10 ERA/2.64 FIP/2.69 xFIP) vs. Andre Pallante (4.13 ERA/4.06 FIP/4.11 xFIP)

It already seems a foregone conclusion that Skenes will win Rookie of the Year, but it would be in the Cardinals’ best interest to beat him out. Although there is a silver lining to him winning Rookie of the Year (by a division opponent). Skenes will be credited with a full year of service, and even though the Pirates didn’t call him up until May 11, they will be credited with over a month of starts Skenes made that they are not entitled to.

Pallante may be feeling the effects of surpassing his career high innings. He’s been pretty bad in his last two starts, with a total of 10 walks. He now has 118 innings and counting, while his previous career high was 108. Although he did that two years ago and only pitched 84 last season. I don’t think they will, but I don’t think it would be egregious if he moves to the bullpen in the last week or so. (Ignore everything I said about him matching Skenes)

Tuesday – 18:45

Bailey Falter (4.20 ERA/4.22 FIP/4.67 xFIP) vs. Lance Lynn (3.96 ERA/4.30 FIP/4.42 xFIP)

This start is very important to my theory that Lynn’s pitching was at least somewhat compromised when he went on the injured list not only in his last start, but in more than his last start. The Pirates are seventh highest in K%, so I expect Lynn to at least have strikeouts.

Falter isn’t very good, but he’s left-handed and sometimes that’s all you need to be good against the Cardinals.

Wednesday – 18:45

Luis Ortiz (3.45 ERA/4.39 FIP/4.76 xFIP) vs. Sonny Gray (3.75 ERA/3.21 FIP/2.83 xFIP)

OK, so I don’t know if Roster Resource knows something that ESPN doesn’t, but ESPN lists Ortiz as the starter for Wednesday. Roster Resource has… well, nobody starting on Wednesday, and Ortiz starts on Thursday. So it’s possible that this is a bullpen game and Ortiz starts on Thursday. But I can’t find any information to confirm that, so I’m trusting ESPN.

Ortiz actually doesn’t seem to be doing well and Sonny Gray was great at home, so we all know how this game should turn out. We also know how games often actually go and it’s not always how they should go.

Thursday – 6:15 p.m.

Mitch Keller (3.87 ERA/3.93 FIP/4.02 xFIP) against Erick Fedde (3.45 ERA/4.04 FIP/4.23 xFIP)

I don’t think the Pirates will have enough offense next year to really be a good team, but I’m sure they’ll never be easy to beat because of their pitching. There won’t be many situations where I feel like the Cardinals made serious mistakes by losing a series to the Pirates, as has been the case in the past.

Definitely an interesting series. The Pirates have a big advantage in game one and the Cardinals have a big advantage in game three, but the other two seem to be even matchups. So this looks pretty much a split series to me.