How the Montreal by-election could deal a blow to Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s flagging support

Pressure is growing on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as his Liberal Party is preparing for a crucial by-election in Montreal. With approval ratings falling and calls for Trudeau’s resignation mounting, the upcoming vote could potentially be a turning point for Trudeau’s leadership.
Montreal, a district that has long been a Liberal stronghold, will see a bitter election battle on Monday, with polls showing a neck-and-neck race between the Liberals, the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party (NDP). According to Al-Jazeera, the once-safe seat is now on the brink as voters grapple with inflation, a housing crisis and general disillusionment with Trudeau’s government.
The by-election is more than just a local contest. Analysts believe it could serve as an indicator of the party’s fortunes ahead of the next general election, which must be held before October 2025. Trudeau, who has weathered several political storms, now faces the possibility of this by-election becoming a “watershed moment.”
But the challenges facing Trudeau are not just external. The Liberal Party is also split internally. Some MPs have grown weary of his leadership, especially after the NDP decided to pull out of a 2022 deal that Trudeau’s minority government had supported.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who withdrew his support from the Trudeau government, said: “Justin Trudeau has proven time and again that he will always give in to corporate greed. The Liberals have failed the people. They do not deserve a second chance.”

That frustration was evident in June when a Liberal MP publicly called on Trudeau to resign following a loss in a Toronto by-election. Disunity within the party has reached the point where some members are no longer actively supporting the campaign in Montreal.
Recent polls suggest the race is far from certain. The Bloc Québécois candidate is ahead with 29.6% of the vote, while the Liberals are trailing with 24.1%, closely followed by the NDP with 23%. The Conservatives are trailing with just 7.3%, hardly posing much of a challenge.
Trudeau says he will “not go anywhere” regardless of outcome
Trudeau has stated that he intends to remain leader of the Liberal Party, even in the face of possible defeat in the upcoming by-election in Montreal.
“I’m not going anywhere,” Trudeau said in a recent interview with Montreal radio station CJAD 800. Even if his party loses the by-election, Trudeau insists he will stay to lead the fight against the forces he believes are harming the country. “I have to lead a fight against people who want to harm this country, who want to harm our communities,” he said.