Capercaillie population down 9% due to fears of extinction

This is the urgent message from hands-on land managers who believe that the Scottish population may be the last chance to save the species from a second extinction.

This year, only 153 male birds were sighted on mating sites in important forests, 15 fewer than in the same period last year.

If this trend continues, it would result in a further decline in the capercaillie population of an estimated 43% by the next national survey in 2027/28, in addition to the 50% decline seen in the previous survey.

MORE NEWS | Biologist awarded SRUC scholarship

MORE NEWS | It’s not too late to sow your rapeseed

Land managers are now convinced that public pressure – armed with the facts – could be the last remaining hope for the capercaillie to continue to survive as a breeding bird in our forests.

A new emergency plan for the species is due to be published shortly by the Scottish Government’s nature advisors, NatureScot and the Cairngorms National Park.

However, practitioners within the capercaillie conservation group do not believe that this adequately addresses what they see as a fundamental problem: the increasing pressure on eggs and chicks from widespread and protected predators.

Numerous predators such as foxes and crows, which can be controlled by law, have an impact on breeding success, as do the increasing populations of protected pine martens, badgers and hawks.

For decades, deer hunters and gamekeepers have been working together with scientists, conservationists, forestry and national park officials in the Capercaillie Working Group to find ways to halt the decline.

Despite initial warnings that failure to reduce predation pressure would spell disaster, the views of practitioners within the Scottish capercaillie group were given secondary consideration.

“We said 20 years ago that the capercaillie would become extinct in our lifetime. At the time, we were told that we had no evidence and that our statements were anecdotal,” said a source within the practitioner group.

Their hopes for a more robust conservation approach were boosted in 2022 when a report from NatureScot’s Scientific Advisory Group (SAC) to Scottish ministers confirmed their observations and found that reducing predation would “rapidly improve” breeding success.

Since then, however, former Environment Minister Lorna Slater has called for continued investment in habitat restoration to help the capercaillie.

This raises concerns that not all recommendations from the SAC report will be followed and that the urgency will be lost.

In addition, many land managers in Scottish grouse range have been encouraged to choose the less tested option of predator distraction rather than controlling foxes and crows.

Although studies on artificial nests have suggested that diversionary feeding may be successful, capercaillie numbers have not recovered as a result, and a further decline in courting males has now been reported.

“We have dealt with capercaillie populations all our lives in our daily work in these forests. We have seen this dramatic decline with our own eyes and feel a duty to inform the public about the current situation,” said a group practitioner and member of the Scottish Gamekeepers Association (SGA).

“Unfortunately, everything we have said in the past has been confirmed by the latest figures. The numbers don’t lie.

“The last chance is therefore for the public to learn the facts without manipulation.

“Perhaps we can only save the capercaillie if the public knows what is happening and asks questions. That is all we want: for people to know the truth.

“With this appeal to the public, perhaps a larger discussion can be initiated outside of capercaillie circles and we can arrive at solutions that the bird needs in order to stay here.”

Influential research by leading capercaillie researchers found that to maintain populations at current levels, a ratio of 0.6 chicks per hen is required during the breeding season. This ratio has not been achieved in Scotland for the past six years, suggesting further declines in the future.