CBS News poll shows Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are very close ahead of debate

(CBS, KYMA/KECY) – More and more people believe Harris can contribute because of her cognitive health, while inflation concerns bolster Trump.

In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where the races are still close, the larger contours of the entire presidential campaign are emerging ahead of the first debate between Harris and Trump.

What makes these states so close? We’ll examine some of the salient factors, including who is viewed as better by key voting groups, who voters think has the cognitive health needed, and what to make of current campaign and social media rhetoric.

On the one hand, Trump is ahead among voters who do not believe they are better off financially since the pandemic, whose income is not keeping pace with inflation, and especially among non-academics and white voters who say this. The majority of these white non-academics, who are always a critical group in these states, say that opportunities for the working class in particular would be better under Trump.

On the other hand, Harris can keep up in one respect. She is even slightly better than Trump when it comes to protecting the interests of the middle class. Trump will also be more likely to try to represent the interests of the rich in all states.

And in those states where housing is generally considered unaffordable, Harris has a slight lead
There would be policies that would make it more affordable.

And yet other group dynamics are also at play: Most of these white voters without college degrees believe that Harris would care more about the interests of blacks and Hispanics than those of whites.

And while Harris has a significant advantage because she is perceived as someone who advocates for the interests of union members, the actual decision among union households is close, suggesting that these voters are, as always, deciding based on factors that go beyond union-related issues.

In the run-up to the first debate between Harris and Trump, there is a big difference from the debate between Biden and Trump in June.

Now it is Democrat Harris who is viewed by more people as cognitively and mentally healthy enough to serve, while comparatively fewer do so for Trump. (This was quite different in the CBS News national poll when Biden was still in the race.)

What influence have campaign rhetoric and social media had recently? That depends on who you ask.

On the one hand, a large majority find Donald Trump’s comments and social media posts offensive to Kamala Harris, and they don’t like that.

But many overlook this, as has been the case in similar situations for years. A quarter of them still vote for Trump.

What is offensive is in the eye of the beholder. Republican MAGA voters in particular are split on whether they find Trump’s comments and posts respectful, and many like them. And in turn, most Trump voters say they find Harris’ comments about him offensive.

Because of these Republican views, a smaller majority of voters overall find Harris’ comments about Trump a personal insult, but to a lesser extent than Trump voters.

The “tension factor” and broader perception: Harris could benefit from her positions being seen as “mainstream” rather than “extreme.” Most voters describe Trump’s positions as “extreme.”

Although definitions vary, given public demands, most agree that the United States needs a president who is more mainstream than extremist.

(We’ve seen these views influence elections in these states before: In 2022, for example, Democrats did well on similar measures when they defeated MAGA-backed candidates.)

The excitement factor: Harris is outperforming Trump in terms of enthusiasm among partisans. Democrats are more excited about what they’ve seen from her campaign lately than Republicans are about what they’ve seen from Trump’s campaign.

As we’ve seen nationally, it’s solidified the vote of the Democratic base. And on Sunday, Democrats are just as likely as Republicans to say they’re definitely going to vote.