Dallas Cowboys predictions for the game against the Browns indicate a day of weak offense

When the Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns meet this afternoon, it will be a game featuring two of the best defenses the NFL saw last season. You can pick any basic or advanced metric you want and you’ll find that Dallas and Cleveland occupy the top of pretty much every defense list as of 2023. The teams change from year to year, of course, but the key pieces of each unit are back, which is why this game should be of interest to those who love low-scoring games.

Keep in mind that our friends at FanDuel have the over/under on the game at 40.5, which is the lowest of any game in Week 1. Nothing is predictable and anything can happen, but we shouldn’t expect huge fireworks.

But what can we expect? This season, the NFL media machine has unveiled a new tool within its NFL+ premium tier called NFL Pro. It has a tremendous amount of data on every game, including the usual things like condensed games and All-22 footage, but one of the most interesting things is the projections and advantages it offers for each matchup.

Here’s how the Dallas Cowboys’ best offensive players will perform this week (we’ve also included predictions for the Browns’ best offensive players):

First, there is obviously a mathematical formula behind the predictions, which is why there are decimals. You know how it is. Also, there are no predictions listed for CeeDee Lamb, perhaps because they may have been made while he was still holding out. That will surely change in the future.

But those are all pretty mediocre numbers for the top playmakers on the Cowboys offense, which obviously benefits Cleveland’s defense and our expectation of their performance. While there are no projections for Lamb, it’s worth noting that he’ll be going up against a strong Browns secondary that will make things difficult for him. Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome and Martin Emerson each finished in the top five cornerbacks in coverage success rate when targeted last season among cornerbacks with at least 40 targets. Lamb, however, led the NFL in both receptions and receiving yards against man coverage last season. Perhaps the matchups are the fireworks we should be looking for.

NFL Pro has the above advantages and looking at all the major categories, defense is expected to come out on top for both Dallas and Cleveland.

This all suggests, in turn, that any defense will be largely successful against the offense it faces, which puts a lot of pressure on finding a time to break through. Dallas had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season and could pull through on the ground despite having two rookies on the offensive line.

The first slide is passing plays and the second is rushing plays.

It bears repeating that we’re talking about two of the NFL’s best defenses, so it’s not going to be easy for anyone to win on offense this week. But if you really had to pick one or bet on one to find a way to win more often or more regularly, the data suggests it’s indeed Dallas.