How Harris and Trump position their campaigns

An underdog is, by definition, a contender who has little chance of winning.

In the home stretch of the presidential election campaign, the focus is on Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign.

Harris, her campaign and her allies have repeatedly used the term to describe her candidacy. It’s a marked shift in messaging from President Joe Biden’s candidacy just months ago. Back then, Biden made a bold prediction: “Let me say this as clearly as possible: I’m staying in the race!” he said. “I’m going to beat Donald Trump.”

Campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon had more than once expressed her full confidence in a Biden victory, despite lingering concerns about his age and signs of sluggish fundraising. This was true even the week before the fateful presidential debate, when she announced her victory, telling the media outlet Puck, “We’re going to win.”

Then, two days after Biden’s performance at the debate plunged the party into chaos, she stuck to her message: “I say with complete confidence, we will win.”

Now it is O’Malley Dillon who is taking on the branding of the new Democratic nominee, trying to portray the candidate who has better poll numbers, more money and more ground troops than Biden, and who has been within a whisker of the presidency for the past three and a half years, as the one at a disadvantage in the race.

Trump’s team thinks the wording is ridiculous.

“Kamala Harris is neither the outsider nor the candidate of the future. Kamala Harris is currently the Vice President of the United States,” said Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt.

“She is responsible for the problems the American people are currently experiencing… She deserves to be voted out of office.”

Trump has taken a completely different path and has already declared his victory.

“We don’t need votes. We have more votes than anyone else has ever had,” Trump said two months ago at an event in Detroit. He exuded the same confidence on August 30 at a rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania.

“We should win a resounding victory. We should defeat them,” Trump said. “You know, we win the state, we win the whole thing.”

But within the campaign team, a Trump official said that while Trump exudes confidence, no one takes the campaign for granted. That’s why Trump gives several media interviews and holds rallies every week, she said.

“We are confident that President Trump will prevail in this race, but right now no one is sitting in Trump’s headquarters and relaxing,” Leavitt said. “We are working around the clock to win this election.”

Part of the Harris strategy is the typical lowering of expectations after Labor Day. Another is the fact that Harris was pressed for time to introduce herself to voters while tackling major issues like choosing a vice president and holding a national convention within weeks of becoming a candidate.

But some of it goes deeper.

During a live event with Politico at the Democratic National Convention, O’Malley Dillon revealed what kept her awake at night.

“Honestly, complacency, right? I definitely feel like you could look at this moment so full of energy and say, ‘We did it,’ but we didn’t. We didn’t do it. This is going to be an extraordinarily close race. I can’t stress that enough,” she said.

“We are a polarized nation and we are living through challenging times. And despite everything that is happening in this country, Donald Trump still enjoys more support than ever before,” she added.

The Democrats have been hit by overconfidence before: During Hillary Clinton’s campaign against Trump in 2016, the party believed it had the race in the bag, but then had to watch as the great blue wall of its states crumbled.

Harris has given new strength to the Democrats and quickly regained the ground lost under Biden.

Yet despite all the crowded rallies, massive fundraising, rising enthusiasm and growing volunteer numbers the campaign has seen since Biden endorsed Harris on July 21, the fundamental conditions of the campaign have not changed.

Victory will depend on a handful of swing states, and today’s polls suggest the situation remains a tight one.

“Democrats are very scared. The race is even. That’s clear to everyone,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder and vice chairman of the center-left group Third Way. “Democrats are very, very worried. Not because Harris has done anything, she hasn’t made a single mistake so far. It’s because the risk of defeat is so catastrophic.”

Harris’ candidacy certainly thwarted Trump’s plans to expand his power into states like New Jersey. Instead, it is Harris who is allowing Democrats to make inroads into areas like typically Republican North Carolina, where Trump’s campaign must now pour money.

So far, however, most polls show that the two are within the margin of error in each of the contested areas.

“Nobody has a clear advantage here, that’s for sure,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth poll. After the Trump-Biden debate, Murray said Trump had shown signs of being ahead in both national and swing polls. Harris’ arrival had “brought the campaign back to a pretty even playing field,” he said.

Pennsylvania is a particular concern for Democrats. Depending on which states and how many electoral votes they win, they would need to win two or maybe even three more states to make up for this crucial blue-wall state. Democrats agree that the Keystone State is their biggest concern, especially because of Trump’s strong appeal to white men from rural areas.

Murray said one of the trends he is tracking is where older white voters who have remained loyal to Biden are ultimately trending.

“One of the most interesting findings from Biden’s campaign was that older voters stuck with Biden on this issue – when we asked questions about the mental and physical toughness of the candidates and their suitability for the job,” he said.

Bradley Beychok, co-founder of the Democratic-affiliated American Bridge party, described Harris as “up-and-coming” but remained sober about the party’s prospects.

“It’s a jump ball,” he added.

“I’m not criticizing her or her campaign for saying they’re underdogs, because some of the models see her as a slight underdog,” Beychok said. “I could argue that she’s a slight underdog. I could argue that’s a gamble. I could argue that she’s a slight favorite.”